PRC in twenty years

[Zor]

Basicly, this is a thread about where the People's Republic of China is going in twenty years? The Generic grounds is the fact that China is changing, shifting, ajusting itself and has made Incredable progress in the last sixty years (Bombed out, overpopulated, largly unindustrealised wreack of a nation with a sizable part of the population thinking that the Sun revolved around Earth to Highly industrealisted, largly infulental nation wicth has put a man in space, solving many of it's problem (Population, Food, Power), and shifting it's idealogy constantly).

So were is it going?

[The Cleric]

Um, I think you mean Earth around Sun.

[MKSheppard]

Basicly, this is a thread about where the People's Republic of China is going in twenty years?

PRC tries to "reunify" Taiwan with themselves, despite it never having been
a Chinese territory, when the Japs took it over, they found that there were
more German and english speakers on it than Chinese.

They proceed to get their asses kicked in massive air/sea battles, PRC
government falls, replaced by democracy or it splinters into warlordism
with 5-10 different "warlord states" replacing the PRC.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Basically, this is a thread about where the People's Republic of China is going in twenty years. The generic grounds is the fact that China is changing, shifting, adjusting itself and has made incredible progress in the last sixty years (Bombed out, overpopulated, largly unindustrealised wreck of a nation with a sizable part of the population thinking that the sun revolved around Earth to highly industrialized, largely infulental nation which has put a man in space, solving many of it's problem (Population, Food, Power), and shifting it's ideology constantly).

So where is it going?

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Corrected spelling, because I care. Content is beyond my power.

I think China is going to have a few bad decades while it undergoes some painful demographic adjustments. Its hard-up for women at the moment, with the adult population being 60-40 men-women and climbing. But, in a few generations it will have a more stable population.

[Col. Crackpot]

They will destroy their environment to the point where people are starving to death in toxic slums, and strip mine themselves into poverty. The PRC makes 19th century industrial America look clean by comparison.

[Master of Ossus]

Is anyone else concerned that the Three Gorges Dam is the biggest terrorist target in the history of the earth? Think about the consequences of an attack like 9/11 on that thing, once it's up and running. China would be mercilessly fucked.

However, realistically I think that their biggest problem is the search for consumers. They have not shown the ability to take major R&D jobs, which leaves them building things that other people invent. They also have serious internal problems over communism, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Falun Gong, etc. etc. etc.

While right now they have a lot of upside potential, they also have some serious unresolved issues that will be cropping up in the next 20 years.

[salm]

their upward trend will continue and they´ll reach a point when they´re technologicaly and financially comparable to the industrialized west. at least in the cities. the rural areas will take a lot longer to catch up.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Is anyone else concerned that the Three Gorges Dam is the biggest terrorist target in the history of the earth? Think about the consequences of an attack like 9/11 on that thing, once it's up and running. China would be mercilessly fucked.

However, realistically I think that their biggest problem is the search for consumers. They have not shown the ability to take major R&D jobs, which leaves them building things that other people invent. They also have serious internal problems over communism, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Falun Gong, etc. etc. etc.

While right now they have a lot of upside potential, they also have some serious unresolved issues that will be cropping up in the next 20 years.

From what I've seen on 3G, you'd have to hit it with a bunker-buster to crack it open.

[The Kernel]

From what I've seen on 3G, you'd have to hit it with a bunker-buster to crack it open.

Or a fully fueled widebody in a crash dive.

[Gil Hamilton]

It will probably be the pre-eminent economic power on the planet, or at very least be one of the big three (China, the European Union, and the United States). Ever since they became partially capitalist, their economy is growing at sick rates. This in combination with a government that has very little scrupples and oversight, combined with a people who will accept far less than what you'd expect for a major economic power, and they are going to be a juggernaut.

[CaptainChewbacca]

From what I've seen on 3G, you'd have to hit it with a bunker-buster to crack it open.

Or a fully fueled widebody in a crash dive.

I dunno... that's pretty thick concrete. They'd have to hit a spillway.

[aerius]

Is anyone else concerned that the Three Gorges Dam is the biggest terrorist target in the history of the earth? Think about the consequences of an attack like 9/11 on that thing, once it's up and running. China would be mercilessly fucked.

Thing is dams are pretty darn solid, and it's unlikely that a plane or large truck bomb will bring it down. Given that it's a massive reinforced concrete gravity dam I doubt anything short of special dam-busting bombs or nukes will breach it.

[Patrick Degan]

Is anyone else concerned that the Three Gorges Dam is the biggest terrorist target in the history of the earth? Think about the consequences of an attack like 9/11 on that thing, once it's up and running. China would be mercilessly fucked.

Thing is dams are pretty darn solid, and it's unlikely that a plane or large truck bomb will bring it down. Given that it's a massive reinforced concrete gravity dam I doubt anything short of special dam-busting bombs or nukes will breach it.

No, but a large enough earthquake and subsidence is likely to do the job. Some people are taking bets on when, not if, the dam collapses.

[Sea Skimmer]

Is anyone else concerned that the Three Gorges Dam is the biggest terrorist target in the history of the earth? Think about the consequences of an attack like 9/11 on that thing, once it's up and running. China would be mercilessly fucked.

Without an atomic bomb, or a pile of conventional explosives equal in yield to an atomic bomb on a barge, or several B-52's laden with dozens of very heavy penitrating laser or GPS guided bombs attacking from high altitude, the dam is rather immune to being breached. The worst terrorists could do with a remotely realistic level of firepower is blow open the pipes feeding the turbines, that might cause some flooding, and the loss of power generating capacity, but not any huge catastrophe. And in reality, secuitry is likely too heavy for the terrorists to have any hope of damaging more then a few, if any of those pipes. They'd need to both blow open the pipes and blow apart the gates controlling the water flow, two tasks which both demand heavy explosive charges, hard to carry on ones back and alot of time.

[Sea Skimmer]

Or a fully fueled widebody in a crash dive.

The 757 that hit the Pentagon disintegrated on impact with the buildings two-foot thick concrete walls, as would most any other plane. The dam in question has concrete hundreds of feet thick. A big plane hitting might make a crater, but it is rather high unlikely that it could breach the dam. The Chinese almost certainly have SAM's and AAA around the place anyway.

I dunno... that's pretty thick concrete. They'd have to hit a spillway.

Spillways by there nature are at the top of the dam, a hit on them would only allow for flooding if the water was only a short distance from flowing over them naturally, bit deal. If the dam has floodgates low down, which I'm pretty sure it doesn't, those might be vulnerable. But you wouldn't release very much water at once by damaging them, and the doors on the would be on the lake side, and thus rather impossible to hit with an aircraft anyway. The only points of significant vulnerability I see are the locks off to the side, though destroying them would only drain off part of the lake, or the power turbines and there associated piping. Though neither of those makes for a very good kamikaze target either.

If I had to attack the dam without a nation state level of resources I'd just get some mortars or missiles, even RPG's would do, and then I'd blow away the transformer connected to the turbines. Destroying them would knock out the dam's ability to transmit power, and giant transformers are not the sorts of thing you can replace quickly. I could and also would blow down some of the towers holding up the power lines, but rigging emergency replacements for those doesn't take very long.

[Zor]

Is anyone else concerned that the Three Gorges Dam is the biggest terrorist target in the history of the earth? Think about the consequences of an attack like 9/11 on that thing, once it's up and running. China would be mercilessly fucked.

Without an atomic bomb, or a pile of conventional explosives equal in yield to an atomic bomb on a barge, or several B-52's laden with dozens of very heavy penitrating laser or GPS guided bombs attacking from high altitude, the dam is rather immune to being breached. The worst terrorists could do with a remotely realistic level of firepower is blow open the pipes feeding the turbines, that might cause some flooding, and the loss of power generating capacity, but not any huge catastrophe. And in reality, secuitry is likely too heavy for the terrorists to have any hope of damaging more then a few, if any of those pipes. They'd need to both blow open the pipes and blow apart the gates controlling the water flow, two tasks which both demand heavy explosive charges, hard to carry on ones back and alot of time.

China also has not have made as many Islamic Enemies, Knows about 9/11 so might have security a bit tighter and it is further away from urban areas.

Just thought i should point that out

[Alex Moon]

It will probably be the pre-eminent economic power on the planet, or at very least be one of the big three (China, the European Union, and the United States). Ever since they became partially capitalist, their economy is growing at sick rates. This in combination with a government that has very little scrupples and oversight, combined with a people who will accept far less than what you'd expect for a major economic power, and they are going to be a juggernaut.

Not likely. First of all, China's economic numbers are suspect. Second, the rise of jobs in China is centered around exporting goods to other countries. To do this they have to keep the value of the Yuan low. With the way they are buying up American and other assets in order to do so, its going to come back to bite them in the ass within the next ten to twenty years. Finally, even though China's output seems impressive, they still haven't topped us, even with a population of 1.3 billion. They're wage/productivity ratio is still very high. Simply put, US workers produce more for a dollar than chinese workers do.

Maybe in a hundred years China will come close to rivalling the US, but even then it will be due in large part to massive reforms and a lot of luck. More likely, economic and population pressures will cause things to get very ugly.

[Rogue 9]

China doesn't have a population of 1.3 trillion. The planet doesn't have a population of 1.3 trillion.

[Stofsk]

Finally, even though China's output seems impressive, they still haven't topped us, even with a population of 1.3 trillion.

1.3 Trillion? Are you sure you're not overcounting a little bit?

[Jalinth]

They will destroy their environment to the point where people are starving to death in toxic slums, and strip mine themselves into poverty. The PRC makes 19th century industrial America look clean by comparison.

The Gobi desert is spreading like wildfire thanks to their policies. Apparently Beijing already gets sandstorms - I think it is within 100 km or less from the city. I wonder how it will be like for the Olympics. All new sports - camel riding instead of horse racing, 100km survival hike through the desert - compass and canteen provided - no GPS allowed.

[Alex Moon]

Finally, even though China's output seems impressive, they still haven't topped us, even with a population of 1.3 trillion.

1.3 Trillion? Are you sure you're not overcounting a little bit?

Fuck. Billion, I meant billion. I just got off work and I'm sore and tired as hell.

Can a mod change that please?

[Zor]

The thing is that China's population is dropping, By law now and with the next generation a large number of men. China's population is realy going to drop.

[frigidmagi]

I'm a bit worried about what they'll do when they realize this. I mean China current leaders have a history of doing whatever it takes to maintain their power.

So they realize they don't have enough ladies around and their population is going to nose dive more then they wanted. What do they do then?

[HemlockGrey]

Let's all jump on his back for typing the wrong thing. I think we all know he meant 1.3 billion.

This in combination with a government that has very little scrupples and oversight, combined with a people who will accept far less than what you'd expect for a major economic power, and they are going to be a juggernaut.

This reminds me of a quote I heard from someone working at the US Embassy in Beijing;

"You have to keep reminding the Chinese that their GDP is lower than Italy's."

To be fair, according to the official figures it's also growing rather rapidly, faster than the US, to be sure, but not quite as fast as say....Azerbaijan.

The big problems with China, as I see it, are also economic. Their industry is pumping out toxins like the US in the early 50's. But while the cities are sprawling out in every direction, the peasants are getting fucked.

Badly fucked.

For example, in Beijing, the government seized large residential areas belonging to poorer residents, kicked them out on the street, and built massive public arenas for the upcoming Olympics, with little to no compensation. This is happening on a much more massive scale everywhere where Chinese cities are expanding, as the government appropriates enormous amounts of farmland and turns out the peasants who just happen to be living off that land.

Poverty is a massive problem; just an hour or two outside of Beijing there are villages so destitute that they are grinding wheat to flower *by hand* with homemade gristmills. The peasants are not benefitting from China's economic explosion and unless there are massive reforms in the near future they are going to continue to get the short end of the stick, and they are not terribly happy about it.

I doubt China is stupid enough to seize Taiwan, though. The leadership may be authoritarian nationalist freaks but I think the can grasp the concept of USN/USAF > PAL.

I think the major source of conflict will come in friction between the cities and the interior.

[Master of Ossus]

Fuck. Billion, I meant billion. I just got off work and I'm sore and tired as hell.

Can a mod change that please?

Sure.

Nonetheless, your point stands. China's population is going to be reduced extremely rapidly. The Chinese are hoping that this will also solve some of their interior problems, but that is optimistic at best. Meanwhile, they still have lots of other problems to deal with before they become a serious world power.