Electoral Vote Predictor

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2004-09-16 03:56pm

Right now it's Bush 311, Kerry 223.

I think we can, regardless of our opinions of Kerry, agree that another four years of Bush would be a complete and utter diseaster?

Talon Karrde · Post by **Talon Karrde** » 2004-09-16 03:57pm

HemlockGrey wrote:Right now it's Bush 311, Kerry 223.

I think we can, regardless of our opinions of Kerry, agree that another four years of Bush would be a complete and utter diseaster?

Um... no.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2004-09-16 04:00pm

Um... no.

Well, there's a reason you're a VI.

Fucking Pennslyvania is Bush by 1%...it's the goddamn central PA'ers that are the driving force behind that. First Rick Santorum, and if they let Bush have PA they can all go to hell.

Oh, out of curiosity, does anyone know if the Amish vote?

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-16 04:01pm

HemlockGrey wrote:Right now it's Bush 311, Kerry 223.

I think we can, regardless of our opinions of Kerry, agree that another four years of Bush would be a complete and utter diseaster?

Kerry's last stand will have to be the debates. If he doesn't shine, he's a dead man.

Talon Karrde · Post by **Talon Karrde** » 2004-09-16 04:02pm

HemlockGrey wrote:
Um... no.
Well, there's a reason you're a VI.

Fucking Pennslyvania is Bush by 1%...it's the goddamn central PA'ers that are the driving force behind that. First Rick Santorum, and if they let Bush have PA they can all go to hell.

Good fucking comeback moron.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-16 04:02pm

HemlockGrey wrote:Fucking Pennslyvania is Bush by 1%...it's the goddamn central PA'ers that are the driving force behind that. First Rick Santorum, and if they let Bush have PA they can all go to hell.

1% is well within the margin of error. Things can change a lot in the next month-and-a-half. Just a few weeks ago, that predictor had Kerry at over 300 electoral votes.

Talon Karrde · Post by **Talon Karrde** » 2004-09-16 04:02pm

Durandal wrote:
HemlockGrey wrote:Fucking Pennslyvania is Bush by 1%...it's the goddamn central PA'ers that are the driving force behind that. First Rick Santorum, and if they let Bush have PA they can all go to hell.
1% is well within the margin of error. Things can change a lot in the next month-and-a-half. Just a few weeks ago, that predictor had Kerry at over 300 electoral votes.

This is very true. Only problem is, the current trend has Kerry continually slipping in most polls.

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2004-09-16 04:04pm

HemlockGrey wrote:Well, there's a reason you're a VI.

Fucking Pennslyvania is Bush by 1%...it's the goddamn central PA'ers that are the driving force behind that. First Rick Santorum, and if they let Bush have PA they can all go to hell.

Oh, out of curiosity, does anyone know if the Amish vote?

They aren't getting Pennsylvania. It would take a miracle for the center of the state to overcome the combined power of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which are both so heavily democratic it isn't funny. Despite what the current polls may indicate, I'll eat all my clothing if PA goes red, since the cities are very much "better dead than red" in attitude.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2004-09-16 04:05pm

HemlockGrey wrote:Right now it's Bush 311, Kerry 223.

I think we can, regardless of our opinions of Kerry, agree that another four years of Bush would be a complete and utter diseaster?

I'm not so sure. The more I think of it, the more I think that the worst might be over with Bush. Iraq has tied his hands overseas and at home, quite frankly, he's running out of money. He's low on political capital, credibility, and resources as it is, and if the Democrats recapture the Senate, he'll be handcuffed. I'm not saying 4 more years of the wonder chimp would be good, but I don't think it will be an unmitigated disaster.

I'm curious about what will happen to the losing party this year. I think if Kerry loses, there's going to be a major shakeup among the Democrats, and that might not be a bad thing. More than getting rid of Bush, we need a credible opposition party--and I'm a Republican, officially and in my overall political leanings. If suffering four more years of Bush gets us a rejuvenated Democratic party that can bring real ideas and, more importantly, force the Republicans to move to the center to survive, then it might be worth it.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2004-09-16 04:15pm

I don't see the Dems recapturing Congress in any major capacity (but then, I haven't been paying close attention to the Congressional races), and frankly the fact that the treasury is low does not strike me as something which will hinder Bush's spending in the least. Of course, I doubt it would hinder Kerry's spending either.

However, I sincerely doubt that under Kerry we would be seeing the corporate cronyism and foreign-policy snafus that have been a constant of the Bush Administration. Further, at the very least Kerry will bring in a new cabinet, which would eliminate the fucking scum of the earth that populate it now.

Falkenhayn · Post by **Falkenhayn** » 2004-09-16 04:20pm

A Democrat +8 in NEW YORK?

What the HELL is wrong with John Kerry?

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2004-09-16 04:28pm

HemlockGrey wrote:I don't see the Dems recapturing Congress in any major capacity (but then, I haven't been paying close attention to the Congressional races), and frankly the fact that the treasury is low does not strike me as something which will hinder Bush's spending in the least. Of course, I doubt it would hinder Kerry's spending either.

They won't get the House, but the Senate is very much in play.

However, I sincerely doubt that under Kerry we would be seeing the corporate cronyism and foreign-policy snafus that have been a constant of the Bush Administration. Further, at the very least Kerry will bring in a new cabinet, which would eliminate the fucking scum of the earth that populate it now.

No, instead we'll see pandering to the trial lawyers, Greenpeace, the Brady Campaign and/or other such leftist pressure groups. And instead of neocon vampires in the cabinet, we'll get Kennedyite twits. I'm not sure if that's an improvement. Seriously, I don't know which would be worse, which is why I'm back in the undecided column.

Post by **Beowulf** » 2004-09-16 04:39pm

HemlockGrey wrote:Right now it's Bush 311, Kerry 223.

I think we can, regardless of our opinions of Kerry, agree that another four years of Bush would be a complete and utter diseaster?

No, I don't think we can. I wish there was a better Republican canidate, but I don't think Bush will be a disaster for the country.

Imperial Overlord · Post by **Imperial Overlord** » 2004-09-16 04:45pm

Bush has done so much damage already, it will be hard for him to do more. Regardless of who wins the military is going to be busy for the next couple of years and reckless tax cutting and massive spending have already been pushed through. It will keep on getting bad, but there aren't too many things left he can fuck up.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-09-16 04:46pm

Imperial Overlord wrote:Bush has done so much damage already, it will be hard for him to do more. Regardless of who wins the military is going to be busy for the next couple of years and reckless tax cutting and massive spending have already been pushed through. It will keep on getting bad, but there aren't too many things left he can fuck up.

You misunderestimate him.

Imperial Overlord · Post by **Imperial Overlord** » 2004-09-16 04:51pm

Probably. But how is he going to invade any more countries?

Butterbean569 · Post by **Butterbean569** » 2004-09-16 05:07pm

We come for your maple syrup Wong!

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-09-16 05:12pm

Imperial Overlord wrote:Probably. But how is he going to invade any more countries?

He can't, because his military is overstretched. But he can continue to disastrously micromanage the Iraq occupation, he can continue to mangle science councils and stymie science research, he can continue to shit on the environment, he can continue opening up the government to corporate control, he can continue deficit-spending his way to glory, he can continue disproportionately benefiting the wealthy at the expense of everyone else, etc.

Bugsby · Post by **Bugsby** » 2004-09-16 05:21pm

Holy CRAP, JERSEY went red? Im in a swing state now??? Well, Im voting Kerry, and have been voting Kerry since Dean died, but.... shit.

Imperial Overlord · Post by **Imperial Overlord** » 2004-09-16 05:21pm

I agree, but just think it will be more of the same. It will continue to get worse, but it will just continue the trends of his first term. There is also strain showing in his relationship with some of the more moderate Republicans. Overall a second term of Bush will be bad, but the majority of the damage will have been done in the first.