Put Away Your Hankies...a message from Michael Moore

Galvatron · Post by **Galvatron** » 2004-09-21 01:51pm

Michael Moore wrote:9/20/04

Dear Friends,

Enough of the handwringing! Enough of the doomsaying! Do I have to come there and personally calm you down? Stop with all the defeatism, OK? Bush IS a goner -- IF we all just quit our whining and bellyaching and stop shaking like a bunch of nervous ninnies. Geez, this is embarrassing! The Republicans are laughing at us. Do you ever see them cry, "Oh, it's all over! We are finished! Bush can't win! Waaaaaa!"

Hell no. It's never over for them until the last ballot is shredded. They are never finished -- they just keeping moving forward like sharks that never sleep, always pushing, pulling, kicking, blocking, lying.

They are relentless and that is why we secretly admire them -- they just simply never, ever give up. Only 30% of the country calls itself "Republican," yet the Republicans own it all -- the White House, both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court and the majority of the governorships. How do you think they've been able to pull that off considering they are a minority? It's because they eat you and me and every other liberal for breakfast and then spend the rest of the day wreaking havoc on the planet.

Look at us -- what a bunch of crybabies. Bush gets a bounce after his convention and you would have thought the Germans had run through Poland again. The Bushies are coming, the Bushies are coming! Yes, they caught Kerry asleep on the Swift Boat thing. Yes, they found the frequency in Dan Rather and ran with it. Suddenly it's like, "THE END IS NEAR! THE SKY IS FALLING!"

No, it is not. If I hear one more person tell me how lousy a candidate Kerry is and how he can't win... Dammit, of COURSE he's a lousy candidate -- he's a Democrat, for heavens sake! That party is so pathetic, they even lose the elections they win! What were you expecting, Bruce Springsteen heading up the ticket? Bruce would make a helluva president, but guys like him don't run -- and neither do you or I. People like Kerry run.

Yes, OF COURSE any of us would have run a better, smarter, kick-ass campaign. Of course we would have smacked each and every one of those phony swifty boaty bastards down. But WE are not running for president -- Kerry is. So quit complaining and work with what we have. Oprah just gave 300 women a... Pontiac! Did you see any of them frowning and moaning and screaming, "Oh God, NOT a friggin' Pontiac!" Of course not, they were happy. The Pontiacs all had four wheels, an engine and a gas pedal. You want more than that, well, I can't help you. I had a Pontiac once and it lasted a good year. And it was a VERY good year.

My friends, it is time for a reality check.

1. The polls are wrong. They are all over the map like diarrhea. On Friday, one poll had Bush 13 points ahead -- and another poll had them both tied. There are three reasons why the polls are b.s.: One, they are polling "likely voters." "Likely" means those who have consistently voted in the past few elections. So that cuts out young people who are voting for the first time and a ton of non-voters who are definitely going to vote in THIS election. Second, they are not polling people who use their cell phone as their primary phone. Again, that means they are not talking to young people. Finally, most of the polls are weighted with too many Republicans, as pollster John Zogby revealed last week. You are being snookered if you believe any of these polls.

2. Kerry has brought in the Clinton A-team. Instead of shunning Clinton (as Gore did), Kerry has decided to not make that mistake.

3. Traveling around the country, as I've been doing, I gotta tell ya, there is a hell of a lot of unrest out there. Much of it is not being captured by the mainstream press. But it is simmering and it is real. Do not let those well-produced Bush rallies of angry white people scare you. Turn off the TV! (Except Jon Stewart and Bill Moyers -- everything else is just a sugar-coated lie).

4. Conventional wisdom says if the election is decided on "9/11" (the fear of terrorism), Bush wins. But if it is decided on the job we are doing in Iraq, then Bush loses. And folks, that "job," you might have noticed, has descended into the third level of a hell we used to call Vietnam. There is no way out. It is a full-blown mess of a quagmire and the body bags will sadly only mount higher. Regardless of what Kerry meant by his original war vote, he ain't the one who sent those kids to their deaths -- and Mr. and Mrs. Middle America knows it. Had Bush bothered to show up when he was in the "service" he might have somewhat of a clue as to how to recognize an immoral war that cannot be "won." All he has delivered to Iraq was that plasticized turkey last Thanksgiving. It is this failure of monumental proportions that is going to cook his goose come this November.

So, do not despair. All is not over. Far from it. The Bush people need you to believe that it is over. They need you to slump back into your easy chair and feel that sick pain in your gut as you contemplate another four years of George W. Bush. They need you to wish we had a candidate who didn't windsurf and who was just as smart as we were when WE knew Bush was lying about WMD and Saddam planning 9/11. It's like Karl Rove is hypnotizing you -- "Kerry voted for the war...Kerry voted for the war...Kerrrrrryyy vooootted fooooor theeee warrrrrrrrrr..."

Yes...Yes...Yesssss....He did! HE DID! No sense in fighting now...what I need is sleep...sleeep...sleeeeeeppppp...

WAKE UP! The majority are with us! More than half of all Americans are pro-choice, want stronger environmental laws, are appalled that assault weapons are back on the street -- and 54% now believe the war is wrong. YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO CONVINCE THEM OF ANY OF THIS -- YOU JUST HAVE TO GIVE THEM A RAY OF HOPE AND A RIDE TO THE POLLS. CAN YOU DO THAT? WILL YOU DO THAT?

Just for me, please? Buck up. The country is almost back in our hands. Not another negative word until Nov. 3rd! Then you can bitch all you want about how you wish Kerry was still that long-haired kid who once had the courage to stand up for something. Personally, I think that kid is still inside him. Instead of the wailing and gnashing of your teeth, why not hold out a hand to him and help the inner soldier/protester come out and defeat the forces of evil we now so desperately face. Do we have any other choice?

Yours,

Michael Moore
www.michaelmoore.com
mmflint@aol.com

Rogue 9 · Post by **Rogue 9** » 2004-09-21 01:58pm

Hell no. It's never over for them until the last ballot is shredded. They are never finished -- they just keeping moving forward like sharks that never sleep, always pushing, pulling, kicking, blocking, lying.

Much like Moore himself.

Guardsman Bass · Post by **Guardsman Bass** » 2004-09-21 02:20pm

WAKE UP! The majority are with us! More than half of all Americans are pro-choice, want stronger environmental laws, are appalled that assault weapons are back on the street -- and 54% now believe the war is wrong. YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO CONVINCE THEM OF ANY OF THIS -- YOU JUST HAVE TO GIVE THEM A RAY OF HOPE AND A RIDE TO THE POLLS. CAN YOU DO THAT? WILL YOU DO THAT?

Isn't it kind of ironic that he CITES a poll(and implies citation of many other polls) when he just said they are worth shit?

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2004-09-21 02:26pm

I can't say I disagree with his assessment of the Democratic party.

Ma Deuce · Post by **Ma Deuce** » 2004-09-21 03:43pm

Once again, Moore proves his head is stuck firmly in the sand. I wonder how he is going to react if Bush wins? (which is looking more likely by the day, thanks to Kerry's utterly incompetant campaign thus far.)

Petrosjko · Post by **Petrosjko** » 2004-09-21 04:03pm

He's rallying the troops, and he's right- if the partisan democrats are convinced all is lost, it is lost.

Personally, I believe it's a futile effort as well, but he can't afford to admit that. They have to go out all guns firing.

Oh, wait, this is Michael Moore, no guns. That nonsense about 'assault weapons back on the streets' is a good part of the reason I find him to be such a despicable character. Eat it, Moore.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-21 04:11pm

Ma Deuce wrote:Once again, Moore proves his head is stuck firmly in the sand. I wonder how he is going to react if Bush wins? (which is looking more likely by the day, thanks to Kerry's utterly incompetant campaign thus far.)

Probably like he has for the last four, cry and complain that Bush stole the election cause he's a bad, mean man.

theski · Post by **theski** » 2004-09-21 04:11pm

RedImperator wrote:I can't say I disagree with his assessment of the Democratic party.

If you want to see melt down Red... go take a look at DemocraticUnderground right now. they are eating their young.. Doom and Gloom... and the Deaniacs are chomping at the bit to tell you I told you so..

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-21 04:22pm

He's absolutely right about the Democratic party (and the Republicans, for that matter).

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-21 04:23pm

Guardsman Bass wrote:
WAKE UP! The majority are with us! More than half of all Americans are pro-choice, want stronger environmental laws, are appalled that assault weapons are back on the street -- and 54% now believe the war is wrong. YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO CONVINCE THEM OF ANY OF THIS -- YOU JUST HAVE TO GIVE THEM A RAY OF HOPE AND A RIDE TO THE POLLS. CAN YOU DO THAT? WILL YOU DO THAT?
Isn't it kind of ironic that he CITES a poll(and implies citation of many other polls) when he just said they are worth shit?

He said that polls which polled likely voters were full of shit, not polls which polled positions on the political spectrum.

The Kernel · Post by **The Kernel** » 2004-09-21 04:25pm

It's a good message and the most important one that needs to be said right now. All you lazy good for nothing liberals, get off your asses and VOTE!

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2004-09-21 04:26pm

It's exactly what needs to be said. If the Democrats don't stop whinging and hop to it, they will continue to lose ground.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-21 04:27pm

You know, I love how he uses the sly implication that if the Republicans have 30% of the population as avowed members that must mean that the rest are democrats.

Weaselly right to the end.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-21 06:44pm

Stormbringer wrote:You know, I love how he uses the sly implication that if the Republicans have 30% of the population as avowed members that must mean that the rest are democrats.

Weaselly right to the end.

Yeah. That was laughable, since most people now identify more strongly with Republican ideals than democratic ones.

Skelron · Post by **Skelron** » 2004-09-21 07:24pm

Durandal wrote: He said that polls which polled likely voters were full of shit, not polls which polled positions on the political spectrum.

Or he could mean the polling booth, or in other words give people a lift to where they actually cast there vote. Which would be the likely choice since most polls don't actually require you to drive to them.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-21 07:43pm

Skelron wrote:
Durandal wrote:He said that polls which polled likely voters were full of shit, not polls which polled positions on the political spectrum.
Or he could mean the polling booth, or in other words give people a lift to where they actually cast there vote. Which would be the likely choice since most polls don't actually require you to drive to them.

Um ... what?

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-21 07:46pm

Incidentally, this thing about how they only poll likely voters and therefore the youth vote is unaccounted for is bullshit. Every major polling company uses a formula for accounting for young voters, also, but they require different methods to account for since they haven't voted in the past.

Edit: And, after looking it up in my old statistics text, the bit about how the polls don't take into account people who wouldn't normally vote but are voting this time is also bullshit. All of the major pollsters have methods of separating likely voters out from the registered ones who probably will not vote by asking them questions like "Does this election seem important to you?" and "Do you feel as if this election will affect your life?"

In short, Moore is completely bullshitting. While the questions and statistical models that the various pollsters use vary slightly in how heavily they weight responses, every major pollster has methods designed to determine which voters are likely to vote, and which ones are unlikely to, that take into account the perceptions of people with regards to the importance of the election. Mike Moore is flat out wrong.

EmuWarrior · Post by **EmuWarrior** » 2004-09-21 07:52pm

I'd rather vote for someone I want and not get him than vote for someone I don't want and get him.

Rogue 9 · Post by **Rogue 9** » 2004-09-21 09:16pm

EmuWarrior wrote:I'd rather vote for someone I want and not get him than vote for someone I don't want and get him.

Captain Obvious strikes again!

Elfdart · Post by **Elfdart** » 2004-09-21 11:21pm

Joe Conason nails it:

Kerry rising
Rumors of John Kerry's demise have been greatly exaggerated -- too often by doomsaying Dems themselves. A host of new polls suggest it's the president who should be trembling.

- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Joe Conason

Sept. 17, 2004 | To listen to certain Democrats these days is to learn that the presidential election is all but over, apparently because John Kerry slipped behind George W. Bush in a few national polls last week. These sad doomsayers whine constantly that Kerry "isn't tough enough," when what they are really talking about are their own mental weaknesses. Much of the anger and determination displayed by liberals over the past year seems suddenly to have deflated into fear and resignation.

At such moments, a once-important Democratic functionary inevitably pipes up to get his or her name in the newspaper by attacking the party's candidate or campaign. Even if this person happens to be a thoroughly discredited figure like Tony Coelho, a washout as Al Gore's campaign manager, his remarks get ink because "it's a story" when Democrats criticize each other. What would really be a story is a Republican behaving with the same lack of discipline endemic among Democrats just now.

The liberal tendency to assume the fetal position upon hearing any bad news not only creates a damaging psychological environment for those who indulge it, but also repels undecided and independent voters who are seeking strong, confident leadership. Nobody wants to join a team that obsesses more about losing than winning.

And there is no reason to give up, regardless of any flaws in the Kerry-Edwards campaign or the Bush-Cheney convention "bounce." That bounce has fallen flat, returning the presidential race to a virtual dead heat, according to several new polls.

The new Harris Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll, completed on Sept. 13, shows Kerry with 48 percent, Bush with 47 percent and Ralph Nader with 2 percent. Those results were nearly identical to the last Harris poll, taken before the Republican Convention, when Kerry was ahead by 1 point. The most noticeable shift in this poll's results is that the 10-point lead Bush enjoyed last June is gone. More than half of the respondents think Bush "doesn't deserve to be reelected [sic]."

The most recent poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press shows the Bush lead falling precipitously during the past week. Between Sept. 8 and Sept. 10, Bush was ahead of Kerry by 54 to 38 among "likely voters" -- but between Sept. 11 and Sept. 14, that gap diminished to Bush 47 versus Kerry 46.

Today, the Economist released a new YouGov poll, which employs online technology developed by a British survey firm, and found Bush ahead of Kerry by a single point, 47 to 46. To the magazine's editors this represents an "impressive" result for Bush because more than 56 percent of the voters polled by YouGov say they are "dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time."

Democracy Corps, run by James Carville and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, completed a new poll of 1,003 voters on Sept. 14, which also showed Bush one point ahead, 49 to 48 percent. Greenberg's poll includes lots of data suggesting that voters want a new direction -- and that independents, in particular, are deeply dissatisfied with Bush.

The latest survey by Investor's Business Daily and the Christian Science Monitor, completed Sept. 12, actually shows Kerry ahead by two points among registered voters and tied with Bush among "likely" voters. (For a useful discussion of this distinction and why it may not be meaningful at this stage, consult Ruy Teixeira's Donkey Rising blog, which provides smart, professional and duly skeptical analysis of media polls.)

As Gallup polling director Frank Newport said last week when Bush was riding high on a post-convention wave, the presidential election remains in flux and unpredictable.

"In all presidential elections there has been at least some movement between Gallup's Labor Day poll and the final outcome on Election Day," Newport explained. "The general tendency is toward a closing of whatever gap exists on Labor Day. Certainly, the race is close enough at this point to suggest that while it is possible that George Bush may maintain his lead or expand it, it is also quite possible that John Kerry will gain and move into the lead himself."

(Of course, placing too much confidence in horse-race polls is a mistake. In the final weeks of the 2000 election, major polls showed Bush ahead of Al Gore by three to 13 points -- and then Gore won the popular vote tally by more than 500,000.)

Aside from Newport's observation, there are other reasons for Bush to worry about voters souring permanently on him before Nov. 2. The most salient is the war in Iraq. A growing majority of people now understand that they were misled by the Bush administration, that the war is going poorly, and that the White House has no viable exit strategy. As public focus returns to the consequences of this administration's incompetence, John Kerry can still seize the opportunity to regain his lead -- if he dares.

Brilliant as usual.

Skelron · Post by **Skelron** » 2004-09-22 12:11am

Durandal wrote:
Skelron wrote:
Durandal wrote:He said that polls which polled likely voters were full of shit, not polls which polled positions on the political spectrum.
Or he could mean the polling booth, or in other words give people a lift to where they actually cast there vote. Which would be the likely choice since most polls don't actually require you to drive to them.
Um ... what?

I'm a little confused, the original part of this was someone claiming he was being Hypocritical attacking Polls for being crap, and then saying give someone a lift to the Polls, I was simply pointing out that it seems likely he meant the Polling booths in the case of a lift. As the Pollsters don't ask you to come to them they go to you, but where you cast your vote you obviously have to go there.

It would also tie into what he wanted people to do in Dude Wheres my country, which was give friends nd co-workers a lift to the Polling Booths. (Well actually what he advised is going out for lunch with them and just saying 'Hay I wanna pop by the Polling station and vote, give me a second,' and then when there saying...'Ah since your here, why not cast your vote as well, not as if your going to lose anything is it.')