Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 239 Bush 256

Elfdart · Post by **Elfdart** » 2004-09-21 11:01pm

People need to keep a few things in mind about the polls:

1) They count likely voters, i.e. those who voted in at least two of the last three elections (or in some cases, one of the last two). This doesn't count new voters (mostly young and immigrants), who are more than likely pro-Kerry.

2) Unless an election is a blowout, the undecided voters break for the challenger by a 3-2 or 2-1 margin.

3) Kerry has always been accused of slacking off in elections, but after he lost in 1972, he always closes and wins like the Patriots. Ask the people who ran against him in 1984, 1990, 1996 and in the primaries. Kerry was written off as an absolute joke just two weeks before Iowa. People who write off Kerry at this point are being foolish.

4) If it's close, weather could be a factor. Clear weather on election day favors Democrats, while lousy weather gives flag and fetus fetishists the edge.

Elfdart · Post by **Elfdart** » 2004-09-21 11:07pm

Bush is only 6 ahead in South Carolina?

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-21 11:10pm

Elfdart wrote:People need to keep a few things in mind about the polls:

1) They count likely voters, i.e. those who voted in at least two of the last three elections (or in some cases, one of the last two). This doesn't count new voters (mostly young and immigrants), who are more than likely pro-Kerry.

Utterly wrong. The pollsters use separate formulas to take into account new voters in their statistics, and they determine the likelihood of a potential voter to actually vote by asking them questions like, "Does this election matter to you?" They then tabulate these results to determine how likely a voter is to vote, and take into account the importance or lack of importance of an election.

2) Unless an election is a blowout, the undecided voters break for the challenger by a 3-2 or 2-1 margin.

Yeah. So?

3) Kerry has always been accused of slacking off in elections, but after he lost in 1972, he always closes and wins like the Patriots. Ask the people who ran against him in 1984, 1990, 1996 and in the primaries. Kerry was written off as an absolute joke just two weeks before Iowa. People who write off Kerry at this point are being foolish.

Alright, then, let's see him come back and win this thing.

4) If it's close, weather could be a factor. Clear weather on election day favors Democrats, while lousy weather gives flag and fetus fetishists the edge.

Yeah. So?

Elfdart · Post by **Elfdart** » 2004-09-21 11:23pm

That's not how Gallup did it.

Bugsby · Post by **Bugsby** » 2004-09-21 11:53pm

Gallup isn't the standard anymore. Some questionable results put them out of favor recently, or so I hear (don't hurt me if Im wrong about that). At any rate, I think its just silly for everyone to bow down to the Gallup poll when there are many other polling services out there.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-21 11:55pm

Elfdart wrote:That's not how Gallup did it.

By all means, explain how Gallup conducts its polls, then, if it doesn't use the tried and true statistical sampling models that have been used since the 50's.

Butterbean569 · Post by **Butterbean569** » 2004-09-22 12:11am

My state is so goddamn red it's not even worth voting...for president anyway. I'll go vote for state and local leaders, and vote against Bush for the hell of it....

You guys shoulda seen the Bush Fundies on campus today chanting his name and shit....it was funny. The best part was that a few anti-bush people showed up with fancy suits, champagne, and monopoly money...and were mocking the Bush supporters. One guy said, in a rich and snobby voice (whatever that is lol), "Here, take my oil money! I have so much! I'll pay you to take my money! Vote bush, and take my oil money! I have so much money I don't know what to do with it, maybe I'll bathe in my oil money!"

That doesn't do it justice, but damn it was hilarious

Bugsby · Post by **Bugsby** » 2004-09-22 01:27am

Ick. Dont just look at the states up on top, look at the senate race down at the bottom. Looks like Reps are gonna keep the Senate unless we have a bit of luck.

theski · Post by **theski** » 2004-09-22 07:07am

Elfdart wrote:Bush is only 6 ahead in South Carolina?

Figure 12 in SC...... Its Red and will stay red

Falkenhayn · Post by **Falkenhayn** » 2004-09-22 06:34pm

Todays polls are quite the shake up from five days ago.

Can we expect this kind of see-sawing all the time?

theski · Post by **theski** » 2004-09-22 06:36pm

Falkenhayn wrote:Todays polls are quite the shake up from five days ago.

Can we expect this kind of see-sawing all the time?

SInce the battleground states.... NJ,FL,NM,OH and PN keep a dead heat ... Yes this will flip back and forth till Nov 3

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-09-22 06:40pm

I don't think Kerry's really giving too much attention to Ohio; that's solid Bush territory. Those were the "intelligent design" people, remember?

I'm guessing that Jersey goes Kerry, with New Mexico going to Bush. My personal prediction is that whoever wins Florida and Pennsylvania wins it all.

Exmoor Cat · Post by **Exmoor Cat** » 2004-09-22 06:47pm

erm, we're still to see if the Face to Face debates will make an impact..... Multiple impact alert - Bush's hesitancy could be spun as doddering or simple homeliness, Kerry's eloquence could be received as in control or just oily.....