Osamma's Capture Scenario

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2004-09-27 11:05am

Please bear in mind this is just a thought that occurred to me as I read an artcile about Osamma being in Pakistan on CNN. What if there is a faction in the US Goverment that would like to keep Osamma around? They don't want him to be captured so they leak to Osamma's buddies when we get close to capturing him, etc.

The reasoning behind this would be that it is fairly obvious that the American people would be satisfied that once he was captured, the primary objective of the war on terror is over. Osamma has been captured so that any other attempts at justifying actions with 'another phase of the war on terror' would be met by more scrutiny or criticsim. Americans don't like nebulous objectives and never ending battles. They like neat endings, simple objectives (capture the bad guy, stop Nazi Germany)

I am NOT saying this is true or that this is what Bush is doing. I'm just saying that this scenario sounds plausible to me. You have a man on dialysis hiding out in Pakistan (and may have been there since the hunt started) and we can't seem to find him. Sadaam was captured and imprisoned within months of his nation being invaded and I think we have just about everyone in the deck of cards. So what's the hold up on Osamma? It gets someone to thinking of posibilities and being a writer they tend to spin out towards dramatic possibilties.

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2004-09-27 11:10am

Osama's dead. He's rotting under a pile of rocks on the afganistan/pakistan border.

The reasoning behind this would be that it is fairly obvious that the American people would be satisfied that once he was captured, the primary objective of the war on terror is over. Osamma has been captured so that any other attempts at justifying actions with 'another phase of the war on terror' would be met by more scrutiny or criticsim. Americans don't like nebulous objectives and never ending battles. They like neat endings, simple objectives (capture the bad guy, stop Nazi Germany)

I disagree with this. Bush made it clear from the beginning that the WoT was going to be about more than al-Qaeda. It would be relatively easy for them to shift the focus away. In fact, capturing Osama would be useful because it would be a blow against critics who argue that the war in Iraq was hindering the War on Terror.

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2004-09-27 11:15am

Alex Moon wrote:Osama's dead. He's rotting under a pile of rocks on the afganistan/pakistan border.

I disagree with this. Bush made it clear from the beginning that the WoT was going to be about more than al-Qaeda. It would be relatively easy for them to shift the focus away. In fact, capturing Osama would be useful because it would be a blow against critics who argue that the war in Iraq was hindering the War on Terror.

Not according to the latest intel reports coming out of Pakistan. The big wig they captured a few days ago indicated that Ossama was still alive and in hiding. Do I wish he were dead? Of course.

Bush tried to shift the focus from Al-Qaeda as quickly as he could but I think the American public's reaction to his capture or confrimed death would be a big sigh of relief and a true feeling of mission accomplished.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-09-27 11:37am

Not according to the latest intel reports coming out of Pakistan. The big wig they captured a few days ago indicated that Ossama was still alive and in hiding. Do I wish he were dead? Of course.

Because he is an absolutely 100 percent reliable source who would never lie, I'm sure.

Seriously, I'm with Alex on this one. He used to be putting out a new tape every year, now he hasn't made any appearances in well over a year. Why can they get al-Zawahiri to make a tape, but not bin Laden?

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-09-27 11:40am

I don't think the scenario you envision would ever happen, Stravo. While capturing bin Laden would be a major victory, I don't think it would be the "War is Over!" message. He still has a vast terror network, and that's just one of many in the world today. I don't think many Americans would think the war had ended with bin Laden's capture, nor do I think that any in the American government would tip off AQ to his impending capture.

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2004-09-27 11:57am

Stravo wrote:
Alex Moon wrote:Osama's dead. He's rotting under a pile of rocks on the afganistan/pakistan border.

I disagree with this. Bush made it clear from the beginning that the WoT was going to be about more than al-Qaeda. It would be relatively easy for them to shift the focus away. In fact, capturing Osama would be useful because it would be a blow against critics who argue that the war in Iraq was hindering the War on Terror.
Not according to the latest intel reports coming out of Pakistan. The big wig they captured a few days ago indicated that Ossama was still alive and in hiding. Do I wish he were dead? Of course.

Source? As Joe mentioned, if Osama is alive, why isn't he making videos anymore? Why has he dissappeared entirely?

Bush tried to shift the focus from Al-Qaeda as quickly as he could but I think the American public's reaction to his capture or confrimed death would be a big sigh of relief and a true feeling of mission accomplished.

Why? The Bush administration has spent the last three years telling people that the hunt for al-Qaeda was only a part of the WoT. Even though they're happy he's gone, I doubt Americans are going to believe that somehow the problem of international terrorism has suddenly dissappeared. As the last year has shown us, there are other groups, other leaders ready to take Bin Laden's place. Capturing Osama (or getting DNA evidence that proves he's dead) would be equivalent to the fall of Berlin; a major milestone, yes, but with a long hard slog still ahead on other fronts.

The Kernel · Post by **The Kernel** » 2004-09-27 02:55pm

Alex Moon wrote: Source? As Joe mentioned, if Osama is alive, why isn't he making videos anymore? Why has he dissappeared entirely?

From CNN.

CNN wrote:(CNN) -- Intelligence indicates Osama bin Laden is alive, Pakistan's president says, and the top U.S. military official in Afghanistan believes the al Qaeda leader is probably in Pakistan.

On a visit to The Hague in the Netherlands Monday, Pervez Musharraf told reporters that interrogations of captured al Qaeda operatives and technological evidence indicate bin Laden is alive.

But when asked about bin Laden's current whereabouts, Musharraf replied: "Oh no, I don't know where he is. I wish I did," according to The Associated Press.

Lt. Gen. David Barno, commander of U.S-led coalition forces in Afghanistan, told Reuters news agency that top al Qaeda leaders, including bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, were more likely to be in Pakistan than Afghanistan.

"We see relatively little evidence of senior al Qaeda personality figures being here (in Afghanistan) because they can feel more protected by their foreign fighters in remote areas inside Pakistan," he said on Monday.

Barno also said no major al Qaeda figures had been caught or killed in Afghanistan since 2002, but Pakistan has arrested or killed dozens linked to the network since March.

Lt. Col. Pam Keaton, a spokeswoman for the U.S. military in Afghanistan, confirmed to CNN that Barno's comments were accurately reported by Reuters.

The Afghani, Pakistan and US intelligence forces in the area disagree with your assessment. Do you seriously wish to dispute this?

The Kernel · Post by **The Kernel** » 2004-09-27 02:58pm

Joe wrote:
Not according to the latest intel reports coming out of Pakistan. The big wig they captured a few days ago indicated that Ossama was still alive and in hiding. Do I wish he were dead? Of course.
Because he is an absolutely 100 percent reliable source who would never lie, I'm sure.

By that logic, we should discount all information to come out of interrogations.

Seriously, I'm with Alex on this one. He used to be putting out a new tape every year, now he hasn't made any appearances in well over a year. Why can they get al-Zawahiri to make a tape, but not bin Laden?

You don't think his current status as the most wanted man in the world perhaps makes it difficult for him to produce tapes on a regular basis? So what? This is not proof that he is dead.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-09-27 02:59pm

Alex Moon wrote:Source? As Joe mentioned, if Osama is alive, why isn't he making videos anymore? Why has he dissappeared entirely?

Because there's the simple fact that he doesn't want to be a martyr and making tapes is just going to increase the chance we give him a JDAM colonic.

Petrosjko · Post by **Petrosjko** » 2004-09-27 11:23pm

My gut feeling (for what it's worth, naturally) is that he is probably dead. But even if they had hard evidence of that fact, it would be advantageous for the US to not bring it up. Why? Because if he's confirmed dead, he instantly becomes a martyr. On the other hand, especially with no more video tapes coming out, he ends up looking pretty feeble. Where is the great worldwide Jihad? The glorious leader of it is on the dodge in the hills of Pakistan.

Conversely, Al Quaeda may be trying to tie up valuable enemy assets hunting for a dead man.

But that's all pure speculation.