Your Senate Election Predictions

[CelesKnight]

We've had a lot of discussion about the US Presidential discussion, but not much about the Senate. So, how do you think it will turn out?

Quick Background Info:
There are currently 51 Republican Senators. The Republicans are expected to loose one seat they currently hold, while the Democrats are expected to loose 2 seats they currently hold. Three other Republican seats and six other Democratic seats are competitive. However, the Democratic candidate is ahead in many of those competitive races.

Poll ends in 10 days.

[Talon Karrde]

Curious: Where do you get your information that predicts the Repbulicans will lose a seat? From what I see, they are projected to remain the same or gain a seat. www.electoral-vote.com

[Stormbringer]

Honestly about the same really. Maybe a seat or two either way. The Senate doesn't exactly have high turnover rates after all.

[CelesKnight]

Curious: Where do you get your information that predicts the Repbulicans will lose a seat? From what I see, they are projected to remain the same or gain a seat. www.electoral-vote.com

By "lose a seat", I meant that a election for a seat that is currently held by a Republican (namely IL) will be won by a Democrat. However, they could make that lose up elsewhere.

[Talon Karrde]

Curious: Where do you get your information that predicts the Repbulicans will lose a seat? From what I see, they are projected to remain the same or gain a seat. www.electoral-vote.com

By "lose a seat", I meant that a election for a seat that is currently held by a Republican (namely IL) will be won by a Democrat. However, they could make that lose up elsewhere.

Whoops... my apologies. I was in a hurry and quit reading halfway through your post. I see now what your saying.

[Elfdart]

But the GOP is also going to lose a seat in Oklahoma, since their candidate is one of those fetus-fetishists who thinks abortion doctors should be killed. Then it came out that he performed abortions himself AND sterilized several women. What a dick!

[RedImperator]

The Republicans will probably retain control of both houses of Congress, which frankly is a better argument for voting Kerry than anything Kerry has actually said or done. It's not even a partisan issue, since I'm nominally Republican. I just think it's better if the legislature and the executive is split in some manner.

[CelesKnight]

OK is constantly tied, and there is anywhere from 10-20% undecided. I think that Bush's coattails will save that seat.

I didn't want to give my prediction earlier because I didn't want to influence the vote. So, I'll give my prediction now. I predict that the Democrats will win IL, but lose GA, LA, and SC. CO, AK, OK, FL, and SD are the real tossups. Assuming the presidential election is close; I would bet that the Dems pick up one seat in that group. Result: Repub total is 52.

However, I don't think that the presidential election will be close. I think that Bush will win and will have big enough coattails to gain a seat in those tossups. Final Result: Repub total is 54.

That may sound like wanking, but I don't think it is. Last week I saw a gambling site list of the odds of there being EXACTLY 54 Republican Senators as about 1 in 2.5. (exactly 53 seats was also about 1 in 2.5, 55 or 52 seats was each about 1 in 6, 51 and 56 were each about 1 in 10, and everything else was each about 1 in 20+) When you add it up, that's pretty good odds that the Republicans pick up seats. Likewise, on Tradesports.com, the current odds of the Republicans retaining control of the Senate (which would only occur if the Republicans had 50 or more seats under Bush, or had had 51 seats under Kerry) is four out of five. (I'm not that familiar with reading odds, and I'm working from memory, so I might be a bit off there, but that's the general area). Moreover, based on the Iowa Electronic Markets has the expectation that the Republicans lose seats is about 15%, and the expectation that they gain seats is about 64%.

So, it would seem that half the people here are expecting something that everything that I've seen only gives a 10-20% chance of happening. I'm honestly curious as to why you all expect the Republicans to lose so many seats. Do you have real reasons, or is it just wanking?


BTW, now that I think about it, I should have put up a Not Sure and Don't Care option. Sorry about that.

[Pu-239]

The Republicans will probably retain control of both houses of Congress, which frankly is a better argument for voting Kerry than anything Kerry has actually said or done. It's not even a partisan issue, since I'm nominally Republican. I just think it's better if the legislature and the executive is split in some manner.

My thoughts exactly.