Is a new Cold War possible?

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2004-09-30 11:55am

Are there any single powers that can oppose us as deftly as the USSR did during the Cold War. By that I mean militarily, politcally, idealogically?

I don't mean power blocs like the one the French tried to form during the eve of the Iraq war which failed miserably. (It gives me a warm tingly feeling inside whenever the French are reminded that they are no longer a power on the world stage) I mean a single nation or regional power that can step up to the plate and become the other pole in a bipolar power struggle or has the US simply become too powerful to be constrained as it was by the USSR? Could China assume this mantle? How about Russia, could it decide to run back home to momma and become a Communist power again?

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-09-30 11:59am

China would be my best guess. Their economy is only going to get bigger and they will inevitably develop extensive external economic interests. The U.S. isn't going to be on top forever, someone will eventually try and usurp our position as hegemon. But I think it won't happen for at least 30-50 more years.

Bertie Wooster · Post by **Bertie Wooster** » 2004-09-30 12:21pm

Suppose China does displace the U.S. as the world's premier superpower in the next 50 years. Where would that leave the Japan, India, and Russia? Wouldn't those countries align with the U.S. since they would have a huge superpower on their doorstep? What about the EU and the US; wouldn't it be more likely for them to draw closer together, more so than either of them with China?

If there is a new cold war in the future, it would be a pretty lopsided one against a marginalized and contained Chinese sphere of unfluence.

I guess the next question would be, who would be the most likely candidates to align themselves on the Chinese side of cold war?

Boyish-Tigerlilly · Post by **Boyish-Tigerlilly** » 2004-09-30 01:43pm

would there be any way of preventing such a thing and seeing that the powers don't shift too much? Any recourse; any remedy?

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-09-30 01:46pm

Joe wrote:China would be my best guess. Their economy is only going to get bigger and they will inevitably develop extensive external economic interests.

They already have extensive external economic interests. Canada's economic strength lies primarily in manufactured exports to the US and resource exports to the world, and right now China is eating up a lot of our exports. They're sucking in natural resources from all over the world to support their burgeoning industries, and that won't change in the near future.

The U.S. isn't going to be on top forever, someone will eventually try and usurp our position as hegemon. But I think it won't happen for at least 30-50 more years.

This is not analogous to the Cold War because China does not appear to be interested in trying to spread an ideology around the globe the way Kruschev was. If anything, I imagine you'll see a lot of big multinational corporations with so much invested in China that the US would cozy up to China rather than getting into a Mexican stand-off with them.

Post by **Coyote** » 2004-09-30 02:53pm

It is totally illogical for China and the US to get in a pissing match like that-- as in, a tense ongoing nuclear standoff. There are too many benefits for both sides, economically, for them to maintain relations. Any tension will be boiled off in the diplomatic and economic arena.

Russia could go into another fit of wanna-be world power but at this point their economy is so tattered it would just be a matter of waiting them out. I think the rest of the world would just nod and smile, and go about their busines. Russia needs the outside world now, and they know it. And the outside world needs them, too, so it balances.

The EU will never seriously be a contender beyond economic (at best). MAny people are unaware of the plethora of economic and cultural ties that bind us to them, and vice versa. Plus, who would lead it? As stated, the French are not likely to be accepted as benevolent masters, and damned if anyone is ready to accept Germans at the helm. And while there are vast societal differences, they are not the types of things that typically lead to war. Besides, the EU seems to refuse any attempt to form a united, European-wide military structure.

Only a sudden come-from-behind play by India might cause a rift, but this is a real stretch of imagination. China would fear a powerful, belligerent India to begin with. But let's look at the possibilities:

India has nukes, a vast population, and they are prone to political extremes when circumstances permit.
They are a bit put off at the US embrace of Pakistan and Musharraf.
They are an "apartheid democracy" at best.
They can legitimately claim a vast ocean territory.
They have subs and aircraft carriers, both necesary tools for overt and covert 'power projection' abroad.
Their economy sucks BUT has a lot of potential if the right management would step up.
They have access to educational and high-tech resources.
They have a 'social export' machine in "Bollywood" to act as an alternative to those who are weary of US media domination.
Their deteriorating social and environmental situation inside their country may force them to look outside to get what they feel they need/deserve.

On the other hand:
China and maybe Russia would freak.
The Muslim world hates them as much as they hate us-- instant targets!
It would require their government to get its fecal matter conglomerated, which is about as likely as a Sharon/Arafat gay marriage.

BlkbrryTheGreat · Post by **BlkbrryTheGreat** » 2004-09-30 09:10pm

This is not analogous to the Cold War because China does not appear to be interested in trying to spread an ideology around the globe the way Kruschev was. If anything, I imagine you'll see a lot of big multinational corporations with so much invested in China that the US would cozy up to China rather than getting into a Mexican stand-off with them.

A bi-lateral, consentual, split of the hegemon position then? Perhaps both powers will "unite" to keep themselves on top?

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2004-10-01 12:09am

The US isn't going to get stuck in a cold war with China. It's too dependent on overseas trade and capitalism for that to happen. A far more likely scenario is the world ends up with several major power blocks, who rival and compete with each other like Europe was before WW1.