The Big One? Avian Flu Transmission In Humans Found

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-09-30 04:49pm

It's not in the main news streams yet, but the past week I've been trawling the news channels online to see what's happening since Flu season is upon us. Not good. Seems H5N1, the strain that caused the Spanish Flu killing tens of millions more than WWI managed, is now able to in some reported cases pass from human-to-human.

Death toll is 30 right now in Thailand after a young child and mother were infected and died. China is stepping up measures to combat it and the US gov't has ordered the 2 million doses of experimental new Flu vaccine to be doubled in number by a French biotech company.

Not to doomsay, but I'm keeping my eye firmly on this news.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-09-30 04:53pm

Wonderful.

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2004-09-30 04:56pm

Its always the fucking shit holes that give us these wonderful diseases like HIV, Ebola, now the avian flu.

Bob the Gunslinger · Post by **Bob the Gunslinger** » 2004-09-30 04:58pm

That's what happens when you don't wash your hands after going to the bathroom.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-09-30 05:03pm

Don't go thinking this is 1918 all over again, it may just be a rare event, it's happened before. But given how the PRC et al handled SARS, a petty fart compared to a hurricane in these terms, then I don't think I want to find out first hand if this is what we've been waiting to happen for the best part of a century.

Solauren · Post by **Solauren** » 2004-09-30 05:11pm

Should we napalm Thailand as a precaution?

Okay, seriously, something like this should be contained ASAP

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-09-30 05:16pm

That'd mean halting all traffic in and out for days. Economic suicide for any nation.

Alferd Packer · Post by **Alferd Packer** » 2004-09-30 05:19pm

Remember, the government maintains that there is no such thing as Captain Trips.

Bob the Gunslinger · Post by **Bob the Gunslinger** » 2004-09-30 06:25pm

Alferd Packer wrote:Remember, the government maintains that there is no such thing as Captain Trips.

Ppffft. When it's the Andromeda Strain, then I'll worry.

TrailerParkJawa · Post by **TrailerParkJawa** » 2004-09-30 11:00pm

I guess I'm not alone then in wondering when/if something like the flu of 1918 returns to kick our ass. The death toll would be much worse, this time around I would think. Modern transporation and population densities lends themselves to easier transmission. At least modern communication would help spread the word.

Kamakazie Sith · Post by **Kamakazie Sith** » 2004-09-30 11:41pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:That'd mean halting all traffic in and out for days. Economic suicide for any nation.

Economic suicide is better than death by virus....

Datana · Post by **Datana** » 2004-10-01 12:59am

Stravo wrote:Its always the fucking shit holes that give us these wonderful diseases like HIV, Ebola, now the avian flu.

Feh. Don't start comparing a country like Thailand to the ones in Africa -- even between third-world countries, there's a world of difference. If anything, it's probably better equipped to handle this than any other country in the region. Healthcare in Thailand is easily the best in Southeast Asia, and stacks up pretty well against the first world nations in that general region (like Australia or New Zealand). Hell, it's one of the few third-world countries making significant headway against AIDS. Sure, there are plenty of problems (prostitution, police corruption, drug trade), but you never hear of any Thai refugees, massacres, or insurgencies on the news like you would from, say, Somalia or Sudan. The government's been stable for decades as well, and is one of the few democracies in the region. I think the Thai can be trusted to handle the situation for now -- it's the PRC I'm more concerned with due to their handling of SARS.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-10-01 07:57am

TrailerParkJawa wrote:I guess I'm not alone then in wondering when/if something like the flu of 1918 returns to kick our ass. The death toll would be much worse, this time around I would think. Modern transporation and population densities lends themselves to easier transmission. At least modern communication would help spread the word.

I have read estimates by the CDC for the return of the Spanish Flu (H1N1 strain, sorry. I said it was H5N1, memory fuzzy) putting it at about 70-100 million deaths in the US alone. Given it was between 40-100 million worldwide in 1918 and 675,000 in America, that's a figure to start worrying over your family.

darthdavid · Post by **darthdavid** » 2004-10-01 08:16am

Oh shitcock. And ofcourse this is announced while i'm feeling sick enough to be forced to stay home... I'd better not have this shit or I'll personally go to thailand and kick everyone over there's ass before I up and die.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2004-10-01 11:13am

Admiral Valdemar wrote: I have read estimates by the CDC for the return of the Spanish Flu (H1N1 strain, sorry. I said it was H5N1, memory fuzzy) putting it at about 70-100 million deaths in the US alone. Given it was between 40-100 million worldwide in 1918 and 675,000 in America, that's a figure to start worrying over your family.

Where are those figures from, exactly? I have seen much lower estimates on the deaths in 1918--20 million to 50 million--and I believe the figure for the United States includes American soldiers overseas in France at the time, where the disease was much more severe in the concentrated armies. The idea of a disease killing between one fourth and one third of the American population in this day and age is, frankly, an incredible contention. That implies an increase in lethality of up to a factor of fifty, and the interconnectedness of society has not increased to such a degree from 1918 to the present day as to make such a figure plausible, especially when we have many other mitigating controls.

The highest estimates of the death toll inflicted by the Spanish flu generally range close to three percent worldwide. That is quite a lot, but hardly of the proportions you are saying. This NIMR article suggests 40 - 50 million died in the original epidemic; in modern terms a conservative three percent of the world's population dying of the Spanish Flu would result in around two hundred million deaths.

That is a tremendous number of people to die; but most of the people who died in the first epidemic were either in very primitive conditions (colonial world and underdeveloped countries), or countries wracked by civil war (China, Russia) or soldiers in horrific conditions (the trench system of WWI). All of that considered, it seems fantastical that 70 million people, let alone 150 million, could die in the USA today alone--are you sure you didn't mean the whole world as opposed to just the USA? That would make considerably more sense.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-10-01 11:28am

I can't say. I always say around 40 million for Spanish Flu over a 24 week period, but it fluctuates because it's so damn hard to pin down. No one can honestly give an exact figure, but 40M is the most quoted.

But mull this over. Those figures for a new outbreak are based on the new H5N1 strain.

The Spanish Flu, H1N1, had a mortality rate of around 2-3%. The H5N1 strain emerging in Thailand and likely spreading has a mortality rate of over 70%. Think those numbers are too high now?

Not only is it better able to travel the globe and resist destruction thanks to our overzealous vaccination programme, but it has a mortality rate an order of magnitude higher.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-10-01 11:52am

I remember reading about one guy who went to China during the height of the SARS outbreak despite the travel advisories and reporters asked him why. He said "business" and commented that his business interests were too important to worry about some virus. Similarly, there was a high school girl who went to school here in Toronto despite knowing that she was coming down with the symptoms of SARS (thus possibly infecting the whole school) and when they asked her why, she said she didn't want to miss a test because it would affect her grades.

It's going to be that sort of mentality that kills us all someday.

Post by **fgalkin** » 2004-10-01 11:57am

Darth Wong wrote:I remember reading about one guy who went to China during the height of the SARS outbreak despite the travel advisories and reporters asked him why. He said "business" and commented that his business interests were too important to worry about some virus. Similarly, there was a high school girl who went to school here in Toronto despite knowing that she was coming down with the symptoms of SARS (thus possibly infecting the whole school) and when they asked her why, she said she didn't want to miss a test because it would affect her grades.

It's going to be that sort of mentality that kills us all someday.

That, and the Chinese fondness for using antibiotics for EVERY FUCKING ILLNESS ON THE PLANET, thus creating breeds of antibiotic-resistant germs.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-10-01 11:58am

I didn't want to post this incase I'd be labelled a scaremongering imbecile (as some SB.com members would say).

The Monster At The Door

My parents actually got worried when SARS came into the limelight because I got an e-mail from my uni which has a large Asian population about precautions. It was I that blew off that warning, but with this, I'm not so sure anymore.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-10-01 12:02pm

fgalkin wrote: That, and the Chinese fondness for using antibiotics for EVERY FUCKING ILLNESS ON THE PLANET, thus creating breeds of antibiotic-resistant germs.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Giving the Chinese a minor break, we're not too bad at that ourselves. It's only recently that we thought "Oh shit! We're running out of drugs to kill these bastards, better use them intelligently now" to ourselves. I have to remind my folks never to get antibiotic soap or ask for drugs for minor infections unless they get bad.

Viruses are immune to antibiotics, it's vaccines that they dislike and even overusing them is helping. There is a Mexican study of their livestock industry showing how the use of vaccines for humans on their poultry etc. instead of culling infected stock is allowing a mixing vessel to be produced in each animal. Bird passes it to pig, pig mixes it with benign human strain, end result: 1918, 40M deaths, all young adults, some dead within hours like one woman on the NYC subway who got on perfectly fine, got to her stop a corpse, lungs full of fluid.

Post by **fgalkin** » 2004-10-01 12:04pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:I didn't want to post this incase I'd be labelled a scaremongering imbecile (as some SB.com members would say).

The Monster At The Door

My parents actually got worried when SARS came into the limelight because I got an e-mail from my uni which has a large Asian population about precautions. It was I that blew off that warning, but with this, I'm not so sure anymore.

A 70% mortality rate?!

Jesus, we're fucked.

Seriously, I hope the mortality rate is currently so high because the victims were in a weakened state (like that woman after childbirth). If not, then we'll have a new Black Death on our hands pretty soon. *shudders*

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2004-10-01 12:06pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote: Giving the Chinese a minor break, we're not too bad at that ourselves. It's only recently that we thought "Oh shit! We're running out of drugs to kill these bastards, better use them intelligently now" to ourselves

Bullshit, when the chinese come down with a scratchy throat, what do they
do? They run right to the store and pick up a FUCKLOAD of antibiotics instead
of simply bearing out the sore throat.

Mange · Post by **Mange** » 2004-10-01 12:07pm

In my opinion, all unnecessary travel to the affected countries should be put on hold until the outbreak is fully contained and until there's no danger of spreading. It may sound harsh, but that's a necessary measure to deal with a potentially dangerous virus.

Post by **fgalkin** » 2004-10-01 12:10pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
fgalkin wrote: That, and the Chinese fondness for using antibiotics for EVERY FUCKING ILLNESS ON THE PLANET, thus creating breeds of antibiotic-resistant germs.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin
Giving the Chinese a minor break, we're not too bad at that ourselves. It's only recently that we thought "Oh shit! We're running out of drugs to kill these bastards, better use them intelligently now" to ourselves. I have to remind my folks never to get antibiotic soap or ask for drugs for minor infections unless they get bad.

True, I should have said "everyone's fondness for using antibiotics instead. Although I must say that in Russia antibiotics are treated with respect and not aboused like they are here.

Viruses are immune to antibiotics, it's vaccines that they dislike and even overusing them is helping. There is a Mexican study of their livestock industry showing how the use of vaccines for humans on their poultry etc. instead of culling infected stock is allowing a mixing vessel to be produced in each animal. Bird passes it to pig, pig mixes it with benign human strain, end result: 1918, 40M deaths, all young adults, some dead within hours like one woman on the NYC subway who got on perfectly fine, got to her stop a corpse, lungs full of fluid.

I know about viruses. Didn't know the fact about the whole livestock vaccine thing, though.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2004-10-01 12:10pm

MKSheppard wrote:
Admiral Valdemar wrote: Giving the Chinese a minor break, we're not too bad at that ourselves. It's only recently that we thought "Oh shit! We're running out of drugs to kill these bastards, better use them intelligently now" to ourselves
Bullshit, when the chinese come down with a scratchy throat, what do they
do? They run right to the store and pick up a FUCKLOAD of antibiotics instead
of simply bearing out the sore throat.

I never said they didn't, Mr. Kneejerk. I said that we, the West, do likewise.

Just to put some context on this, Ebola Zaire - the most lethal haemorrhagic fever known - has a 90% mortality rate.