Electoral Vote Predictions

Augustus · Post by **Augustus** » 2004-10-15 11:11am

Less than 20 Days left -

What are your Electoral Vote predictions for the race?

Bush: 284
Kerry: 264

Augustus · Post by **Augustus** » 2004-10-15 11:15am

Augustus wrote:Less than 20 Days left -

What are your Electoral Vote predictions for the race?

Bush: 284
Kerry: 264

Oops... Make that

Bush: 274
Kerry: 264

salm · Post by **salm** » 2004-10-15 11:42am

so even after the three debates in which even the least politiclay interested could see that bush is a moron the gop is still leading?
that´s so... honestly, it´s completely beyond me how someone can vote bush withtout being forced to it at gunpoint.

Augustus · Post by **Augustus** » 2004-10-15 11:47am

salm wrote:so even after the three debates in which even the least politiclay interested could see that bush is a moron the gop is still leading?
that´s so... honestly, it´s completely beyond me how someone can vote bush withtout being forced to it at gunpoint.

So your prediction would be -

Bush 0
Kerry 538

-right?

salm · Post by **salm** » 2004-10-15 12:16pm

Augustus wrote:
salm wrote:so even after the three debates in which even the least politiclay interested could see that bush is a moron the gop is still leading?
that´s so... honestly, it´s completely beyond me how someone can vote bush withtout being forced to it at gunpoint.
So your prediction would be -

Bush 0
Kerry 538

-right?

no, i´m one of those treehuggers who thinks that it´s actually ok to give your vote to the green party. and then there´s always the gunpoint, right?.

Augustus · Post by **Augustus** » 2004-10-15 12:21pm

salm wrote:no, i´m one of those treehuggers who thinks that it´s actually ok to give your vote to the green party. and then there´s always the gunpoint, right?.

ok, I apologize for the assumption. However, the likely hood of the Green party garnering any EVs this election is nonexistant - so what is your prediction?

Sir Sirius · Post by **Sir Sirius** » 2004-10-15 12:41pm

Rolls a d10 for Bush... x=5.
Rolls a d10 for Kerry... y=7.

| x+y=538
| 5/7=x/y

| x=1345/6 ~228
| y=1883/6 ~319

My prediction: Bush 228 EVs, Kerry 319 EVs.

Datana · Post by **Datana** » 2004-10-15 12:42pm

Prediction: Bush 290, Kerry 248.

I'm expecting Kerry to take Maine, New Mexico (where he's been ahead until very recently), New Jersey (a traditional Democratic state) and Pennsylvania (the Democrats are going to campaign extra hard there, as they can't win without it). Bush will take Iowa (where even Zogby polls show Bush ahead right now), Wisconsin (where he's been consistently ahead since August), and New Hampshire (a Republican enclave for the past two decades). Florida is a given for Bush (they've been moving more to the Republican camp, and overwhelmingly voted Jeb Bush back into office for governor, IIRC), and Oregon is likewise for Kerry (though Bush will make an unusually strong showing due to Proposition 36 also being on the ballot).

salm · Post by **salm** » 2004-10-15 12:59pm

Augustus wrote:
salm wrote:no, i´m one of those treehuggers who thinks that it´s actually ok to give your vote to the green party. and then there´s always the gunpoint, right?.
ok, I apologize for the assumption. However, the likely hood of the Green party garnering any EVs this election is nonexistant - so what is your prediction?

ack, i´m an idiot. this is the personal prediction thread. i thought your prediction came from some poll.

in that case i can´t really comment because i have no clue about voter behaviour in specific american states. so my completely uneducated guess would be:

kerry: 271
bush : 267

Falkenhayn · Post by **Falkenhayn** » 2004-10-15 01:02pm

Four electoral votes, ten electoral votes, wow, that is one hell of a mandate, regardless of who wins.

theski · Post by **theski** » 2004-10-15 01:41pm

Falkenhayn wrote:Four electoral votes, ten electoral votes, wow, that is one hell of a mandate, regardless of who wins.

There will be no real mandate.... but the Repubs.. will keep the House and the Senate....

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2004-10-15 02:12pm

theski wrote:
Falkenhayn wrote:Four electoral votes, ten electoral votes, wow, that is one hell of a mandate, regardless of who wins.

There will be no real mandate.... but the Repubs.. will keep the House and the Senate....

Best reason for there to be a Dem President. Gridlock is the perfection of the system.

CJvR · Post by **CJvR** » 2004-10-15 02:33pm

269-269

Just for fun!

TheDarkling · Post by **TheDarkling** » 2004-10-15 03:26pm

SirNitram wrote: Best reason for there to be a Dem President. Gridlock is the perfection of the system.

Slighty OT:

I have never understood why Americans (or people presumably forced to live amongst them

) think a system which actually prevents anything getting done is a good thing.

Elected dictatorship all the way for me.

Augustus · Post by **Augustus** » 2004-10-15 03:35pm

CJvR wrote:269-269

Just for fun!

Well if it's a tie then it goes to the House. Under Republican controll I doubt the House will vote for Kerry....

...but perhaps the kindest thing that could happen the moment if it where declared a tie would be for the earth to open up and swallow the Capital whole.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-10-15 03:36pm

Gridlock during the Clinton years kept spending WAY down. At this point, I'd love four years of gridlock.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-10-15 03:58pm

Keep in mind that there will be two (maybe three) states dividing their votes up proportionally among the candidates. Maine and Nebraska divide up their votes in such a fashion, and Colorado, I believe, is voting on a referendum to distribute their electoral votes in such a manner on November 2.

A tie would result in the newly-elected House of Representatives voting in the president. In that case, Bush would almost certainly win.

The Kernel · Post by **The Kernel** » 2004-10-15 03:59pm

SirNitram wrote:
theski wrote:
Falkenhayn wrote:Four electoral votes, ten electoral votes, wow, that is one hell of a mandate, regardless of who wins.

There will be no real mandate.... but the Repubs.. will keep the House and the Senate....
Best reason for there to be a Dem President. Gridlock is the perfection of the system.

The Dems actually have a shot at taking the Senate, but the House will remain GOP for the forseeable future.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2004-10-15 04:57pm

Kerry: 4
Bush: 6
Zombie Richard Nixon: 528

And Zombie Richard Nixon will win every election for House, Senate and state governor this year as well, except for one seat from Alaska, which will be won by Lyndon LaRouche.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2004-10-15 05:04pm

TheDarkling wrote:
SirNitram wrote: Best reason for there to be a Dem President. Gridlock is the perfection of the system.
Slighty OT:

I have never understood why Americans (or people presumably forced to live amongst them ) think a system which actually prevents anything getting done is a good thing.

Elected dictatorship all the way for me.

1) We've had a government which gets lots done the past four years. Look what fun things it did to us.

2) The basic theory is that if you have gridlock because of Dems and Reps having the power to derail each other, only things that actually matter and are useful will get through. This worked well under Clinton.

Post by **Beowulf** » 2004-10-15 06:11pm

SirNitram wrote:2) The basic theory is that if you have gridlock because of Dems and Reps having the power to derail each other, only things that actually matter and are useful will get through. This worked well under Clinton.

Like the budget?

Falkenhayn · Post by **Falkenhayn** » 2004-10-15 06:29pm

theski wrote:
Falkenhayn wrote:Four electoral votes, ten electoral votes, wow, that is one hell of a mandate, regardless of who wins.

There will be no real mandate.... but the Repubs.. will keep the House and the Senate....

Surprises me...not in the least.

Incompetence seems to be the hallmark of the modern democratic party.

Petrosjko · Post by **Petrosjko** » 2004-10-15 08:38pm

Augustus wrote:Well if it's a tie then it goes to the House. Under Republican controll I doubt the House will vote for Kerry....

...but perhaps the kindest thing that could happen the moment if it where declared a tie would be for the earth to open up and swallow the Capital whole.

I'd love a tie, in that case. D.C. is a dump.

Executor32 · Post by **Executor32** » 2004-10-15 09:03pm

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi wrote:Kerry: 4
Bush: 6
Zombie Richard Nixon: 528

And Zombie Richard Nixon will win every election for House, Senate and state governor this year as well, except for one seat from Alaska, which will be won by Lyndon LaRouche.

Oh, god no. He's the guy who thinks Joe Lieberman is too liberal about violence in the media, especially video games. I think I'd commit seppuku before I'd accept him in any public office.

Glocksman · Post by **Glocksman** » 2004-10-15 10:16pm

On a serious note, watch some of the 'safe' Bush states on election night.
I have a strange feeling based on conversations I've had with people who normally vote Republican that Kerry might pull off a few upsets.

If Kerry wins Indiana (we've only gone Democrat 4 times since 1900), take it as a coming sign of the Apocalypse and the Four Horsemen™ are saddling up.

StarDestroyer.Net BBS

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