Polls trending Bush's way

[theski]

RealClearPolitics Poll AverageSM
3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

Poll Date Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Nader/
Camejo Spread
RCP Average 10/9 - 10/14 47.8% 45.5% 1.5% Bush +2.3
Zogby (1220 LV) 10/12 - 10/14 48% 44% 1% Bush +4
ABC/Wash Post (1202 LV)* 10/11 - 10/13 48% 48% 1% TIE
TIPP (818 LV) 10/10 - 10/13 47% 44% 2% Bush +3
CBS News (760 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 45% 2% Bush +3
ICR (763 LV) 10/9 - 10/11 48% 43% 2% Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1
Time (886 LV w/leaners) 10/6 - 10/7 46% 45% 4% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV) 10/3 - 10/7 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
AP/Ipsos (944 LV)*** 10/4 - 10/6 46% 50% 2% Kerry +4
Marist (642 LV) 10/4 - 10/5 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
Fox News (1000 LV) 10/3 - 10/4 47% 45% 1% Bush +2
ICR (762 LV)** 10/1 - 10/5 51% 45% 2% Bush +6
ARG (800 LV) 10/2 - 10/4 46% 46% 2% TIE
ABC News/WP (1169 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
CBS News/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 47% 47% 1% TIE

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

and

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise.

"The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm ... ID=6512573

[Darth Wong]

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

The big problem that people on the left have is that they don't have an equivalent of the two big mindless ideologue blocks (intolerant Christians and jingoistic flag-wavers) that the Republicans can count on for rabid unwavering support.

[theski]

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

The big problem that people on the left have is that they don't have an equivalent of the two big mindless ideologue blocks (intolerant Christians and jingoistic flag-wavers) that the Republicans can count on for rabid unwavering support.

You mean to counter the Black/Homosexual/union blocs that the dems have?

[Durandal]

Republicans tend to counter the black vote by marginalizing it and keeping them out of the polls.

[Darth Wong]

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

The big problem that people on the left have is that they don't have an equivalent of the two big mindless ideologue blocks (intolerant Christians and jingoistic flag-wavers) that the Republicans can count on for rabid unwavering support.

You mean to counter the Black/Homosexual/union blocs that the dems have?

Blacks are 17% of the population last I heard, and homosexuals are 3% of the population based on the most recent attempts at quantification (the old 10% figure is seriously exaggerated).

Christians, on the other hand (a group which includes many blacks), are 80% of the population, and of those, more than half are brainwashed enough to think that the Earth was actually created less than 10,000 years ago. Do the math, moron.

[Fire Fly]

I'm holding out for the youth factor that polls don't really give a shit about to give Kerry the edge in the swing states.

[Raven]

I wonder how accurate this website really is, but it's got pretty maps and colors.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[salm]

Christians, on the other hand (a group which includes many blacks), are 80% of the population, and of those, more than half are brainwashed enough to think that the Earth was actually created less than 10,000 years ago. Do the math, moron.

are really 40% of the us population young earth creationists? holy fuck, i always thought they were numerous but not THAT numerous.

[Darth Wong]

Christians, on the other hand (a group which includes many blacks), are 80% of the population, and of those, more than half are brainwashed enough to think that the Earth was actually created less than 10,000 years ago. Do the math, moron.

are really 40% of the us population young earth creationists? holy fuck, i always thought they were numerous but not THAT numerous.

More, actually. Repeated Gallup and Time/CNN polls found that the number was around 44% to 45%.

[Executor32]

And that is why I hold nothing but contempt for many of my countrymen, the bunch of idiots.

[Augustus]

Link

Poll: GIs, Families Trust Bush Over Kerry

WASHINGTON (AP) - When asked who they would trust as commander in chief, people in military service and their families chose President Bush over Sen. John Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, by almost a 3-to-1 margin.
Bush, who served in the Texas Air National Guard, was more trusted by 69 percent while 24 percent said they trusted Kerry more, according to the National Annenberg Election Survey released Friday.

Among all Americans, Bush has a more narrow advantage on trust to be commander in chief, 50-41.

The military sample was far more likely to be Republican than Democratic, which could help explain the more favorable view of the president. Four in 10, 43 percent, of the military sample said they were Republicans, while 19 percent said Democrats and 27 percent independents.

Those in the military and their families have a more favorable view of Bush than Americans generally, and they take a more optimistic view about Iraq, the economy and the nation's direction.

A majority in the military sample, 64 percent, said the country is on the right track. Among Americans generally, 55 percent said the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The National Annenberg Election Survey found that seven in 10, 69 percent, had a favorable view of Bush. Only three in 10, 29 percent, had a favorable view of Kerry.

The Annenberg poll, which does not report head-to-head preferences, did not ask the military respondents who they support for president. The report cited a 1948 law that prohibits polling members of the military about their voting intent.

The poll of 655 in the active military and their families was taken Sept. 22-Oct. 5 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Their answers were compared to those of 2,436 adults surveyed between Sept. 7-Oct. 3 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

[theski]

The big problem that people on the left have is that they don't have an equivalent of the two big mindless ideologue blocks (intolerant Christians and jingoistic flag-wavers) that the Republicans can count on for rabid unwavering support.

You mean to counter the Black/Homosexual/union blocs that the dems have?

Blacks are 17% of the population last I heard, and homosexuals are 3% of the population based on the most recent attempts at quantification (the old 10% figure is seriously exaggerated).

Christians, on the other hand (a group which includes many blacks), are 80% of the population, and of those, more than half are brainwashed enough to think that the Earth was actually created less than 10,000 years ago. Do the math, moron.

and isnt that the same bloc of voters that Kerry is courting in the last debate... with all of his "Faith talk"

and most of the Christain blacks vote Dem

[Darth Wong]

and isnt that the same bloc of voters that Kerry is courting in the last debate... with all of his "Faith talk"

Of course he's trying to court them! He knows that fundies will overwhelmingly vote Republican, which is exactly what I was saying! Do you think this retort of yours actually disproves that?

and most of the Christain blacks vote Dem

The point remains that blacks are not as numerous as people think they are, and the fundie block is the single biggest monolithic voting block in the country, not to mention the most rabid.

[Hamel]

And that is why I hold nothing but contempt for many of my countrymen, the bunch of idiots.

How cruel and un-PC

The proper term is "logically challenged"

[Talon Karrde]

Christians, on the other hand (a group which includes many blacks), are 80% of the population, and of those, more than half are brainwashed enough to think that the Earth was actually created less than 10,000 years ago. Do the math, moron.

are really 40% of the us population young earth creationists? holy fuck, i always thought they were numerous but not THAT numerous.

More, actually. Repeated Gallup and Time/CNN polls found that the number was around 44% to 45%.

Is there a specific site you can direct me to to see this? I'll take your word for it, I'd just be interested in seeing the hard numbers.

[Talon Karrde]

The point remains that blacks are not as numerous as people think they are, and the fundie block is the single biggest monolithic voting block in the country, not to mention the most rabid.

I think you have an excellent point here actually Mike. Blacks DO only constitute 16-17% of the population (check U.S. Census Report) and most of these are most likely located in the Black Belt in the South. We already know the south is voting Republican thus their vote doesn't have near as much an effect as people try to make it seem.

[MKSheppard]

Republicans tend to counter the black vote by marginalizing it and keeping them out of the polls.

Holy shit Durandal! You mean, they ENFORCE THE FUCKING LAWS ABOUT
VOTING?

PLEASE TELL ME IT AIN'T SO!

It's not my fault so many blacks commit MULTIPLE crimes and thereby
remove themselves from the voting pool.

[Hamel]

Republicans tend to counter the black vote by marginalizing it and keeping them out of the polls.

Holy shit Durandal! You mean, they ENFORCE THE FUCKING LAWS ABOUT
VOTING?

PLEASE TELL ME IT AIN'T SO!

It's not my fault so many blacks commit MULTIPLE crimes and thereby
remove themselves from the voting pool.

Other tried and true GOP ways of screwing over black voters include

Having the cops and booth overseers intimidate them so they stay away from the booths~

Putting them on a felon list where they don't belong (and conveniently keep the error rate super low on the cubans who vote repub big time)

[Talon Karrde]

Republicans tend to counter the black vote by marginalizing it and keeping them out of the polls.

Holy shit Durandal! You mean, they ENFORCE THE FUCKING LAWS ABOUT
VOTING?

PLEASE TELL ME IT AIN'T SO!

It's not my fault so many blacks commit MULTIPLE crimes and thereby
remove themselves from the voting pool.

Other tried and true GOP ways of screwing over black voters include

Having the cops and booth overseers intimidate them so they stay away from the booths~

Putting them on a felon list where they don't belong (and conveniently keep the error rate super low on the cubans who vote repub big time)

Perhaps you don't believe Democrats tend to try and register dead people, convicted felons, and hand out cigarrettes for votes too?

[Sir Sirius]

To Talon Karrde:
Linky to a gallup by Gallup News Services, requires registration, posted the whole thing below (I had to alter the formatting so it would not looked fucked up, didn't alter the content beyond that).

February 14, 2001
Public Favorable to Creationism
But prefers it be taught along with evolution

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Kansas Board of Education members are debating whether to reverse a two-year-old policy that places less emphasis on the teaching of evolution in school science classes. In 1999, by a 6-4 margin, the board voted to change the state's science education standards to place more emphasis on creationism, the biblical theory that God created the earth and man in seven days. However, two board members who supported that policy change failed to win re-election last November, and were replaced by candidates who support the teaching of evolution.

The American public favors teaching creationism in schools alongwithevolution (68% favor and 29% oppose), but is opposed to the idea of teaching creationisminsteadof evolution, by a 55% to 40% margin. Further, Gallup polls conducted last year suggest that a quarter of Americans believe teaching creationism should be required of the public schools, while another 56% say creationism should at least be offered to students as a subject of study.

Survey Methods

The results reported in this article are based on two Gallup polls, both with telephone interviews of a randomly selected national sample of about 1,000 adults, 18 years and older. The most recent poll was conducted August 24-26, 1999, while the other Gallup poll was conducted June 25-27, 1999. For results based on sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next I'm going to read a variety of proposals concerning religion and public schools. For each one, please tell me whether you would generally favor or oppose it. First, ... Next, ...

Teaching creationism ALONG WITH evolution in public schools

Favor 68%
Oppose 29%
No opinion 3%

Teaching creationism INSTEAD OF evolution in public schools

Favor 40%
Oppose 55%
No opinion 5%


Next, I'm going to read you some areas of instruction the high schools might offer. Please say whether you think each one should be required instruction, could be offered as an elective but should not be required, or should not be taught at all. How about…

The theory of evolution

Required 28%
Offered but not required 49%
Not offered at all 21%
No opinion 2%

The theory of creationism

Required 25%
Offered but not required 56%
Not offered at all 16%
No opinion 3%


Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings

Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process.

‘99 Aug 40%
‘97 Nov 39%
‘93 Jun 38%
1982 38%

Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. God had no part in this process.

‘99 Aug 9%
‘97 Nov 10%
‘93 Jun 11%
1982 9%

God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so.

‘99 Aug 47%
‘97 Nov 44%
‘93 Jun 47%
1982 44%

No opinion

‘99 Aug 4%
‘97 Nov 7%
‘93 Jun 7%
1982 9%

[Talon Karrde]

To Talon Karrde:
Linky to a gallup by Gallup News Services, requires registration, posted the whole thing below (I had to alter the formatting so it would not looked fucked up, didn't alter the content beyond that).

Thanks for the info. Interesting stuff. The #'s that I would take as most important in regards to our conversation would be:
Teaching creationism INSTEAD OF evolution in public schools

Favor 40%
Oppose 55%
No opinion 5%

So would it be reasonable to say around 40% believe creationism is the origin of the world?

[General Zod]

To Talon Karrde:
Linky to a gallup by Gallup News Services, requires registration, posted the whole thing below (I had to alter the formatting so it would not looked fucked up, didn't alter the content beyond that).

Thanks for the info. Interesting stuff. The #'s that I would take as most important in regards to our conversation would be:
Teaching creationism INSTEAD OF evolution in public schools

Favor 40%
Oppose 55%
No opinion 5%

So would it be reasonable to say around 40% believe creationism is the origin of the world?

it'd be a fair estimate to say that at least 40% believed in it, however it's entirely possible that those opposing it being taught in place of evolution recognize that creationism isn't a science, even if they believe in it themselves. although i would imagine those to be in the minority.

[Raven]

Thanks for the info. Interesting stuff. The #'s that I would take as most important in regards to our conversation would be:
Teaching creationism INSTEAD OF evolution in public schools

Favor 40%
Oppose 55%
No opinion 5%

So would it be reasonable to say around 40% believe creationism is the origin of the world?

That's the percentage of people who want creationism taught in place of evolution.

What they actually believe themselves is:

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings

Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process.

‘99 Aug 40%
‘97 Nov 39%
‘93 Jun 38%
1982 38%

Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. God had no part in this process.

‘99 Aug 9%
‘97 Nov 10%
‘93 Jun 11%
1982 9%

God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so.

‘99 Aug 47%
‘97 Nov 44%
‘93 Jun 47%
1982 44%

44-47% believe in literal Genesis. 38-40% believe in intelligent design. only 9-11% believe in real evolution.

[The Kernel]

Perhaps you don't believe Democrats tend to try and register dead people, convicted felons, and hand out cigarrettes for votes too?

There is a difference between the political machines of cities like Chicago and the Presidential elections.

[Durandal]

Republicans tend to counter the black vote by marginalizing it and keeping them out of the polls.

Holy shit Durandal! You mean, they ENFORCE THE FUCKING LAWS ABOUT VOTING?

PLEASE TELL ME IT AIN'T SO!

It's not my fault so many blacks commit MULTIPLE crimes and thereby remove themselves from the voting pool.

Perhaps you missed the thread about Republicans tearing up Democrat voter registrations or the numerous complaints in Florida of polling places in predominantly black counties closing with people still waiting in line outside.