Pollsters: wtf is going on?

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-10-25 11:45am

Today's poll results have BUSH AHEAD IN HAWAII! Meanwhile, Arkansas is tied, Kerry is winning easily in Colorado, and New Mexico is swinging towards Bush.

WTF is going on with the pollsters?

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-10-25 11:50am

No kidding. That's just weird.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-10-25 11:52am

These polls are probably being done on the cheap, with limited sample sizes and not enough effort made to get a representative sample.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-10-25 11:53am

I think the pollsters might be right, it's just becoming that much of a funky ass election.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2004-10-25 12:00pm

A little reading goes a long way. Zogby is mentioned when they talk about the states which were planning to split electoral votes.. Then we have 'Suprising poll results' with no source given for Hawaii and Arkansas... Then back to Zogby. Earlier he reports there is both Zogby polls 'In addition to unusual polls'.

For those who want to glance at the credibility of these polling groups, the Hawaii poll was conducted by 'SMS Research'. The Arkansas was done by 'Opinion Research'. Zogby put both states back where we expected them.

J · Post by J » 2004-10-25 12:04pm

It seems like poll results have become a promotions tool for political parties.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2004-10-25 12:58pm

are we surprised in the least?

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2004-10-25 01:08pm

I can't say much about the rest of the country, but Kerry is probably being helped here in CO by Ken Salazar's campaign.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-10-25 03:04pm

Darth Wong wrote:These polls are probably being done on the cheap, with limited sample sizes and not enough effort made to get a representative sample.

The sample sizes seem reasonable. It's the methodology that seems flawed to produce results like that. There seems to have been little effort made to generate a representative sample.

The Kernel · Post by **The Kernel** » 2004-10-25 03:26pm

Master of Ossus wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:These polls are probably being done on the cheap, with limited sample sizes and not enough effort made to get a representative sample.
The sample sizes seem reasonable. It's the methodology that seems flawed to produce results like that. There seems to have been little effort made to generate a representative sample.

I'm convinced that the polls aren't going to tell us much more at this point besides which states are in play and which aren't. That said, I still think the Hawaii and Colorado polls are bullshit; Hawaii simply isn't going to go Bush and Colorado is only marginally a swing state (Kerry pulled all of his campaigning out of there last week) so I doubt very much that either of these is really accurate.