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jegs2 · Post by **jegs2** » 2004-10-25 09:39pm

Okay, if you had to bet $1000 on who the next US President would be (not who you want him to be, but on who you believe will win), where would you put your money?

Post by **Gandalf** » 2004-10-25 09:47pm

I wager commonsense will win the day and we'll see Kerry on the throne of the Amerikan Empire.

I give him a 53% victory.

The Kernel · Post by **The Kernel** » 2004-10-25 09:49pm

I'd bet Kerry, and on a bigger margin then most of the polls seem to indicate.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2004-10-25 09:58pm

I'd bet Kerry, with 271-280 electoral votes and a popular vote percentage ranging anywhere from 47%-49%.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-10-25 10:02pm

I'm not a gambling man, especially not on something this close.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-10-25 10:07pm

I can envision four scenarios for this election.
1. Bush wins by a razor-thin margin.
2. Tied electoral votes force the decision for the presidency into the House, where Bush will win.
3. Some legal problem or complaint from one side or the other throws the election into controversy. Bush comes out on top regardless.
4. Kerry wins by a bigger margin than polls suggest.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-10-25 10:10pm

Where's the option for "Nader in a landslide"?

I guess you could argue that Nader winning at all would be as shocking as a landslide.

Veramocor · Post by **Veramocor** » 2004-10-25 11:20pm

The Kernel wrote:I'd bet Kerry, and on a bigger margin then most of the polls seem to indicate.

Glad your so confident. I really want Kerry to win but I don't see how hes going to do it. The numbers just don't add up for him. What sucks even more is my vote is prettty much useless in the election (moved from NY to Georgia (uber-Bush state).

What in the polls makes you think Kerry can possibly win?

The Kernel · Post by **The Kernel** » 2004-10-25 11:25pm

Veramocor wrote: What in the polls makes you think Kerry can possibly win?

If you've been watching the electoral college breakdown you'd know that even in a worst case scenario, this election is a total tossup. There are so many swing states in play that it is impossible to say that Bush has a lead over Kerry in any significant way.

I happen to believe that Kerry is being underrepresented in polls for three reasons:

1) Polls don't take into account people with cell phones as their primary phone which are usually college students or young professionals (who are also likely to vote Democrat).

2) Democrats have been registering far more new voters then Republicans in key states which are not counted in polls.

3) People who are likely to vote Democrat are also the people who usually stay home on election day. This election has become so polorized as of late that I am betting on a higher then expected voter turnout.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2004-10-25 11:25pm

Where's the option for "keep the money and pay your rent"?

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-10-25 11:34pm

Darth Wong wrote:Where's the option for "Nader in a landslide"?

Right next to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and Osama bin Laden.

darthdavid · Post by **darthdavid** » 2004-10-25 11:36pm

Durandal wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:Where's the option for "Nader in a landslide"?
Right next to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and Osama bin Laden.

You mean the hangar over from the aliens in Area 51, right?

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-10-25 11:52pm

The Kernel wrote:If you've been watching the electoral college breakdown you'd know that even in a worst case scenario, this election is a total tossup. There are so many swing states in play that it is impossible to say that Bush has a lead over Kerry in any significant way.

Bush's lead while small is growing more solid and people more decided. It's going to come down to the wire but right now it's Bush by a hair.

The Kernel wrote:I happen to believe that Kerry is being underrepresented in polls for three reasons:

1) Polls don't take into account people with cell phones as their primary phone which are usually college students or young professionals (who are also likely to vote Democrat).

2) Democrats have been registering far more new voters then Republicans in key states which are not counted in polls.

And both groups are far less likely to actually vote. So the value of them is questionable for both sides. And unfortunately Kerry has done a hell of a lot to turn of those younger voters; the only hope is ABB and that's not a particularly good hope.

The Kernel wrote:3) People who are likely to vote Democrat are also the people who usually stay home on election day. This election has become so polorized as of late that I am betting on a higher then expected voter turnout.

It has, but it also means that a lot less of the disaffected conservatives are likely to break for Kerry.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-10-26 12:03am

I think at this point it's more likely that Bush will win, but it's going to be a close race. I wouldn't give good odds on either one of them.

Ma Deuce · Post by **Ma Deuce** » 2004-10-26 12:12am

Impossible to tell at this point:

*flips coin*

Okay, my money's on Bush...

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2004-10-26 12:36am

There's still time for something to happen. In the dying days of the Canadian federal election, the Conservative party self-destructed, due mostly to Stephen Harper's big mouth and the Liberal party's ability to rapidly jump on his mistakes.

Of course, Kerry's campaign is not known for its ability to rapidly jump on anything. That's why they really needed Bill Clinton earlier: say what you will about the man, but he knew how to jump on somebody.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-10-26 12:38am

Darth Wong wrote:There's still time for something to happen. In the dying days of the Canadian federal election, the Conservative party self-destructed, due mostly to Stephen Harper's big mouth and the Liberal party's ability to rapidly jump on his mistakes.

Bush needs to hurry up and catch bin Laden. That would do it for him.

Of course, Kerry's campaign is not known for its ability to rapidly jump on anything. That's why they really needed Bill Clinton earlier: say what you will about the man, but he knew how to jump on somebody.

True. You wonder where Clinton's been, though. I realize that the guy has had health problems, and that he seemed to help fund-raising initially, but he really hasn't done much since the start of the election and now. I hope he's okay.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-10-26 12:41am

Darth Wong wrote:There's still time for something to happen. In the dying days of the Canadian federal election, the Conservative party self-destructed, due mostly to Stephen Harper's big mouth and the Liberal party's ability to rapidly jump on his mistakes.

Of course, Kerry's campaign is not known for its ability to rapidly jump on anything.

It's going to take something pretty radical to shift the balance now. And frankly, anything that happens is more likely to favor Bush since he's simply a far better political operator.

Darth Wong wrote:That's why they really needed Bill Clinton earlier: say what you will about the man, but he knew how to jump on somebody.

The irony is he also didn't know when not to.

Flakin · Post by **Flakin** » 2004-10-26 12:48am

I just think that most folks, not seeing the real issues, are just going to vote for the Devil the know rather than the Devil they don't.

I think come crunch time, as much as I'd like to see it.... folks are going to think that Kerry's big selling point (vote Kerry, I have a plan, and I'm NOT BUSH) isnt gonna swing.....

I dont get to vote over here, I just get to pay my taxes and smile.

I'd really rahter be with Mike and hold onto my G. But if I had to shell it out, I'd put it on dubya.

Marksist · Post by **Marksist** » 2004-10-26 12:49am

True. You wonder where Clinton's been, though. I realize that the guy has had health problems, and that he seemed to help fund-raising initially, but he really hasn't done much since the start of the election and now. I hope he's okay.

Today was the first day Clinton came back on the campaign with Kerry. He spoke at a huge rally in Pennsylvania, and another at Miami.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-10-26 12:49am

Stormbringer wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:That's why they really needed Bill Clinton earlier: say what you will about the man, but he knew how to jump on somebody.
The irony is he also didn't know when not to.

Ah, but he never jumped on her. He put her head in his lap.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-10-26 12:52am

Flakin wrote:I just think that most folks, not seeing the real issues, are just going to vote for the Devil the know rather than the Devil they don't.

Or rather the Devil that's term limited vs the Devil that's not.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-10-26 12:53am

Durandal wrote:
Stormbringer wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:That's why they really needed Bill Clinton earlier: say what you will about the man, but he knew how to jump on somebody.
The irony is he also didn't know when not to.
Ah, but he never jumped on her. He put her head in his lap.

Perhaps not Lewisnky but there was an endless parade of skanks he did.

Zeond · Post by **Zeond** » 2004-10-26 01:48am

Even though I am in the anyone but Bush camp, my money is on Bush winning by a very small margin. His terror tactics coupled with Kerry's ineffective campaign and "guy next door" look will give him the edge.

brianeyci · Post by **brianeyci** » 2004-10-26 02:49am

Darth Wong wrote:There's still time for something to happen. In the dying days of the Canadian federal election, the Conservative party self-destructed, due mostly to Stephen Harper's big mouth and the Liberal party's ability to rapidly jump on his mistakes.

I saw it coming all along. There are people who vote Liberal all the time, every time. If not for Adscam, it would have been a sweep for the Liberals. And Layton underperformed too despite his energetic approach. Minority government is best -- maybe we'll get a good army, or another Medicare out of it. What about a Universal crib-to-death minimum wage plan? Get this Americans, our last Prime Minister was toying around with the idea of paying everybody for nothing as part of his legacy. I don't think it was ever workable or real, because I only heard it for a couple days before the glitz died down.

Brian

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