News from the Votemaster
The polling continues apace. We have 28 new polls today with changes in three states. First, Wisconsin has now switched to the Kerry column, according to a Zogby tracking poll conducted Oct 23-26. Kerry is now ahead 48% to 46% in one of the swingingest of the swing states. But with a margin of error of 4%, it is still a statistical tie there.
Zogby also shows that Iowa has become a tie at 45% each, according to its Oct. 23-26 poll. Gallup ran a poll in Iowa Oct. 22-25, only a day before Zogby's, and found that among registered voters, Kerry leads 48% to 47%. However, among what Gallup believes are likely voters, Bush is ahead 50% to 46%, a surprisingly large difference. This immediately brings up the issue of how Gallup decides to reject some respondents as unlikely voters. The likely voter screen involves questions about past voting behavior, interest in the election, and knowledge of where the polling place is. Given the huge number of new voters this year, there are legitimate questions about how accurately pollsters can predict likely voters. For this reason, the spreadsheet and map just use the registered voter data where that is available. In this specific case, Zogby's poll is more recent so the issue is moot.
The third change is in Arkansas, where Bush now leads again. This result is not surprising as most observers didn't think there was much of a horse race in Arkansas to begin with. All in all, Kerry gains ground in the electoral college today, reducing Bush's lead to 17 EVs.
Also noteworthy are the four Florida and four Ohio polls today although neither of those states changed hands. Of the four Florida polls, two of them (ARG and Survey USA) give Kerry leads of 3% and 2%, respectively, one of them (Rasmussen) is a tie at 48% apiece, and one of them (Zogby) shows Bush ahead by 4%. I find it ironic that all summer long I was bombarded with e-mail from Republicans denouncing John Zogby as an unreliable Democrat, but that now that he is the only one showing Bush ahead in the key swing states, the e-mail has abruptly ceased. But Zogby's poll is the most recent, so it is the one I am using. Nevertheless, trouble is clearly brewing for Bush in Florida.
Sudden power is apt to be insolent, sudden liberty saucy; that behaves best which has grown gradually.
That Hawaii poll is still bullshit, no way that Bush is going to win that. As for the rest, these swing states are pretty much all tossups at this point and are all within the margin of error for polling which means that this election is basically a crapshoot (according to the polls anyways).
The Kernel wrote:That Hawaii poll is still bullshit, no way that Bush is going to win that. As for the rest, these swing states are pretty much all tossups at this point and are all within the margin of error for polling which means that this election is basically a crapshoot (according to the polls anyways).
Yup..... I think MN will be the Kicker.. if Bush takes MN or Hawaii then its a gonner for Kerry...
Its going to be a Long TUES......
Helll I would rather see a blowout... for either candidate... just to avoid all of the legal shit....
Sudden power is apt to be insolent, sudden liberty saucy; that behaves best which has grown gradually.
This one is far to close to try and call. It'll all come down to election day itself. Less than one week...
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theski wrote:
Yup..... I think MN will be the Kicker.. if Bush takes MN or Hawaii then its a gonner for Kerry...
Hawaii isn't really in play, that poll HAS to be flawed somewhere. As for the general election, I think that the Bush will probably pick up one or two of the northwestern states, but Kerry might take Iowa, which would, once again, make this come down to Florida. Odds are that the northwestern states are going to be a wash so Florida, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico become all the more important.
Cairber wrote:actually, gallup has Bush ahead in Hawaii as well
I know, I still think they screwed up their polling methodology. We'll see come election day, but I would be surprised if GWB did better than 45% in Hawaii.
Remember people, if Al Quaeda attacks on Election day, the US Government will send a time traveller back in time.......seven days. So be on watch for
unexplained anomalies
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MKSheppard wrote:Remember people, if Al Quaeda attacks on Election day, the US Government will send a time traveller back in time.......seven days. So be on watch for
unexplained anomalies
If anyone appears naked in the alley with a flash of light, I'm shooting them. Fuck causality.
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SirNitram wrote:If anyone appears naked in the alley with a flash of light, I'm shooting them. Fuck causality.
Actually, I was imagining more of a ten ton geodetic sphere appearing,
piloted by a screwball former CIA agent.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
MKSheppard wrote:Remember people, if Al Quaeda attacks on Election day, the US Government will send a time traveller back in time.......seven days. So be on watch for
unexplained anomalies
If anyone appears naked in the alley with a flash of light, I'm shooting them. Fuck causality.
Wrong refrence
Anyway, I'll keep a look out for some weirdo running and catching something (because in the end, that's always what it comes down to)...oh and I'll try and notice if any large alien spheres drop out of the sky too...
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SirNitram wrote:If anyone appears naked in the alley with a flash of light, I'm shooting them. Fuck causality.
Actually, I was imagining more of a ten ton geodetic sphere appearing,
piloted by a screwball former CIA agent.
We're going to need a bigger gun.
An RPG should do the trick .
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I'm assuming that Bush will lose Hawaii, but win Colorado. That basically means that it all depends on the swing states, and Bush only needs two of them.
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I'm feeling pretty good about voting Kerry in Ohio. 20 electoral votes hanging in the balance. Yes, it's going to be the longest tuesday in a very long time.
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Still a tie. Bush has 162 virtually guaranteed electoral votes (10% lead or better), but Kerry has 140 "weak" votes (between the margin or error and a 10% lead). If we add up each candidates strong and weak votes, we get Kerry with 207 and Bush with 200. The "barely" states might as well be ties. That leaves 131 electoral votes basically up for grabs. Kerry needs 63, and Bush needs 70.
Damien Sorresso
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Master of Ossus wrote:I'm assuming that Bush will lose Hawaii, but win Colorado. That basically means that it all depends on the swing states, and Bush only needs two of them.
It's hard to call since a lot of these northwestern states went Gore in 2000 so I'm leaning towards them doing the same in this election. Even if Bush takes Florida, if Kerry can hold onto Wisconsin and Minnestoa and pick up Ohio, then he has the election in the bag. This election is simply too close to call and it doesn't really bode well for Bush that a lot of the critical swing states voted against him in the last election.
A new LA Times poll shows Bush doing well among lower and middle income whites, whereas Kerry leads among whites earning more than $100,000 a year despite his promise to roll back the Bush tax cuts for people making more than $200,000 a year. As president, Bush has enacted big tax cuts for the rich but the rich are voting for Kerry. What's up here? The same poll shows that 2/3 of the people who attend a house of worship at least once a week are voting for Bush, whereas 60% of those who attend religious services less than once a week are voting for Kerry, in part because these voters recoil at Bush's constant use of religious imagery. Lower income whites like Bush's proposal to ban gay marriage but only a quarter believe his policies have been good for the economy. In contrast, affluent whites who have benefitted the most from the Bush tax cuts believe Bush's policies have hurt the economy. In short, far more than in previous years, economic policy is taking a back seat to cultural issues. The real divide seems to be between deeply religious lower income, lower education, voters living in small towns and rural areas who have conservative values on abortion and gay marriage versus higher income, higher education, secular, urban voters who have progressive views on cultural issues.
Damien Sorresso
"Ever see what them computa bitchez do to numbas? It ain't natural. Numbas ain't supposed to be code, they supposed to quantify shit."
- The Onion
Durandal wrote:Some interesting comments from the vote-master.[snip]
It's really quite true. The way I've heard it described in the past is that voters don't vote out of self-interest, they vote for their values. The guy whose paper I read about it was arguing that much of the Republican domination in Congress owes to the fact that Republicans have been historically much better than Democrats at framing the debate to support their values, while Democrats got distracted by individual policies and were thus incapable of fighting back with their own beliefs.
"Sometimes I think you WANT us to fail." "Shut up, just shut up!" -Two Guys from Kabul
Latinum Star Recipient; Hacker's Cross Award Winner
"one soler flar can vapririze the planit or malt the nickl in lass than millasacit" -Bagara1000
It's another symptom of the religious right's domination of the Republican party nowadays. They have a core set of beliefs that appeal to almost every Christian denomination out there, and they appeal to those core beliefs very well. The Democrats lack a truly unified support base like that.
Damien Sorresso
"Ever see what them computa bitchez do to numbas? It ain't natural. Numbas ain't supposed to be code, they supposed to quantify shit."
- The Onion
SirNitram wrote:If anyone appears naked in the alley with a flash of light, I'm shooting them. Fuck causality.
Actually, I was imagining more of a ten ton geodetic sphere appearing,
piloted by a screwball former CIA agent.
I thought Parker was former-NSA.
I thought he was a pilot. Makes sense with his being captured in Somalia. Plus he was a Lt.
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That we dying younger hiding from the police man over there
Just for breathing in the air they wanna leave me in the chair
Electric shocking body rocking beat streeting me to death"
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