Bush might be Slipping on Evangelical vote

Uther · Post by **Uther** » 2004-10-31 07:06pm

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/20 ... -headlines

Also, electoral-vote.com has Kerry up by quite a lot, based on the newest Zogby poll numbers. That's particularly interesting because Zogby most accurately predicted the results of the 2000 election.

Yarcamos · Post by **Yarcamos** » 2004-10-31 07:33pm

283 votes is "quite a lot?"

It takes 270 to win.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2004-10-31 07:52pm

Yarcamos wrote:283 votes is "quite a lot?" It takes 270 to win.

Well, with the way the election is ending up, winning with 283 electoral votes would be kind of impressive.

The Dark · Post by **The Dark** » 2004-10-31 08:02pm

Yarcamos wrote:283 votes is "quite a lot?" It takes 270 to win.

Bush won in 2000 with 271. Of course, 283 would be less than either of Clinton's victories, George I's victory, or either of Reagan's, which ranged from 370 to 525 (only Minnesota went for Modale in '84).

The Dark · Post by **The Dark** » 2004-10-31 08:08pm

This is really an edit to the last post:

The only way I can really see Bush winning is if he carries Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Not counting those three, Kerry is probably up around 20-25 electoral votes. I could actually see this going to a tie if Bush carries Florida and Ohio and Kerry takes Pennsylvania, as it's possible for each to end up with 269 electoral votes. In that case, Bush will likely win since the House is currently Republican.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2004-10-31 10:19pm

Uther wrote:http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/20 ... -headlines

Also, electoral-vote.com has Kerry up by quite a lot, based on the newest Zogby poll numbers. That's particularly interesting because Zogby most accurately predicted the results of the 2000 election.

The race is still a dead tie. Kerry's lead on electoral-vote.com is made up almost entirely of his "barely" states, where his lead is less than the margin of error. So all those votes are still basically up for grabs.

McC · Post by **McC** » 2004-10-31 11:03pm

Those polls don't include "unlikely" voters, though, of which there are a lot this year.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2004-10-31 11:05pm

decisions, decisions. .

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Bush might be Slipping on Evangelical vote

Bush might be Slipping on Evangelical vote

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