Election Post-Mortem...

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Darth Wong
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Post by Darth Wong »

It would appear that Alec Baldwin was correct last year when he said that the Democratic Party's failure to stick to its ideological values was going to cost it the election (I've said this before and I'll say it again; the fact that an actor says something is hardly authoritative, but it is hardly perjorative either; I don't see any reason to take an actor's political statements any less seriously than those of any other TV personality, especially if I happen to think those statements are correct).

When you look at the people who voted Bush, they tended to fall into 4 groups:
  1. Neo-cons (eg- Axis Kast, Marina). This is actually a fairly small group, as they need to be quite knowledgeable about foreign affairs while simultaneously being rigidly doctrinaire about it.
  2. Religious fanatics. America's version of Al-Quaeda will vote for Bush even if he eats babies, as long as he does so while praising Jesus.
  3. Rednecks, by which (for the benefit of semantic nitpickers) I refer to anti-intellectual rural social conservatives, of the sort to be found often (but not exclusively) in the Midwestern and particularly Southern United States. To put it simply, these people employ tribal thinking, Bush is part of their tribe, and they want to help him kick the shit out of people who are in the "other" tribe (which increasingly means "the rest of the world").
  4. Mostly reasonable people who were influenced by loyalty to their Commander in Chief, childish resentment against the rest of the world for daring to have opinions on America's presidency, the Bush team's superior campaign skills, or the fact that Kerry couldn't convince them he had strong convictions about anything.
Of those, the first three are immutable; attempting to sway such people would be an exercise in futility. But #4 is a key factor and the DNC fucked up by assuming that Clinton's centrism would work twice. The Republican Party had eight years to think about how Clinton beat them, and they came up with this "flip-flopping" thing, which is just a brilliant piece of advertising for extremist policies when you think about it. Kerry forged ahead with a centrist platform while the RNC was hammering him for not picking a side and sticking to it. If the DNC is to emerge victorious in the next election, they will have to come up with a counter to this technique, because you can bet your balls you'll be seeing it again in 4 years.
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Post by Pablo Sanchez »

Joe wrote:It's ironic.
The professor in me points out that you're misusing the word "ironic," but we won't worry about it. ;)
Dean arguably made the mistake of assuming that the 18-24 demographic would come out in force for him during the primaries, and that cost him the nomination. Now the Dems have made the exact same mistake, this time with Kerry.
I can see why they thought the 18-24 would turn out for them, though. News and word-of-mouth has been abuzz for months about how hard the get-out-the-vote people were pushing, and all the people they were registering. First impressions seemed to be that there would be some kind of significant effort from the 18-24 year olds, but it just didn't happen. I had hopes...

But then again, University students are people so inert and ignorant that they probably wouldn't even take the time to go to the polls if they had the opportunity to vote against tuition hikes.
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Post by Darth Wong »

fgalkin wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:If you're in university, look around you right now. Look at the people you see wandering around campus or going to bars. Do you seriously have to ask yourself why they didn't vote? I remember how people were when I was that age, and I doubt it's changed.
When the professor asked the class whether we voted today, more than half raised their hands. I was surprised.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin
Obviously, given the nationwide statistics, this is not the norm.
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Post by Glocksman »

The sad thing is that Bush was hideously vulnerable because of Iraq and his tossing of fiscal discipline to the winds.

A good antiwar candidate could have beat GWB over the head with Iraq. Kerry really couldn't say much about it without looking like a tool both because of his vote for the war and his refusal to come out and say 'I was misled by bad intelligence when I voted for it'.

A decent fiscally conservative Democrat could have hammered Bush over the budget. Kerry preaching budget discipline would have been laughable given his record.

The Democrats had a candidate that embodied the antiwar sentiment and had a track record of being fiscally responsible when he was Governor of a state.

Yes, I'm saying that Howard Dean would have been President-elect today if the Democrat primary voters hadn't been so worried about 'electablity'.

The irony, it burns. :twisted:
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Post by Col. Crackpot »

Darth Wong wrote:
fgalkin wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:If you're in university, look around you right now. Look at the people you see wandering around campus or going to bars. Do you seriously have to ask yourself why they didn't vote? I remember how people were when I was that age, and I doubt it's changed.
When the professor asked the class whether we voted today, more than half raised their hands. I was surprised.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin
Obviously, given the nationwide statistics, this is not the norm.
or perhaps embarassment had something to do with it. Just becaue they said they voted, or even voted a particular way, doesn't mean they did. Just look at how miserable the exit polls failed as another example of that.
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Post by Cairber »

Hurray! As a Bush supporter, obviously im happy. He won a majority of the pop vote, something not even Clinton could do...but, whats more, republicans retained control of the houses of government, which will give them a straight decade of control (at least in the house). People cry fundiesfundiesdfundies...but I must say, the makeup of the republican party is changing. Ive never known so many female republicans...we use to be a rare breed...and now Bush got a majority of the female vote. Its very interesting....I wonder if it will continue....
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Post by Durandal »

Cairber wrote:Hurray! As a Bush supporter, obviously im happy. He won a majority of the pop vote, something not even Clinton could do...but, whats more, republicans retained control of the houses of government, which will give them a straight decade of control (at least in the house). People cry fundiesfundiesdfundies...but I must say, the makeup of the republican party is changing.
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Post by Marksist »

Bill Schneider just said on CNN that the young vote percentage from 2000, and 2004 election was 17%. But, that this year the young people did come out in record numbers like predicted, but the percentage stayed the same since everybody came out in record numbers this election. So I think the Dems were not only counting on young people to come out and vote Kerry (and they did), but, for a lot of other people to be disillusioned enough with Bush to stay home or go to Kerry. And that did not happen.
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Post by Xenophobe3691 »

Darth Wong wrote:If you're in university, look around you right now. Look at the people you see wandering around campus or going to bars. Do you seriously have to ask yourself why they didn't vote? I remember how people were when I was that age, and I doubt it's changed.
Not at my University. We actually managed to turn deeply conservative Orange County into a Democratic win. I'm guessing that the college kids who didn't vote were in states that were pretty solidly for one side or the other.
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Post by Pablo Sanchez »

Xenophobe3691 wrote:Not at my University. We actually managed to turn deeply conservative Orange County into a Democratic win.
:shock:

Be proud, then. Even if the overall election was a loss, painting the OC blue is quite an achievement.
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Post by Spyder »

Well, not good.

Americans can look forward to future iterations of the patriot act, big business palm greasing, the continually increasing rich poor divide while the last walls between church and state come crashing down. The rest of us can look forward to some rather creative definitions of free trade and random bombings followed by invasion, shortly before someone realizes "holy shit, we've got no plan!"

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Post by Aeolus »

Iceberg wrote:Fuck fair, this is WAR. EVERYTHING that goes wrong over the next two, four and six years MUST be laid at the GOP's doorstep. FEAR SELLS, SO NUKE THE FUCKING GOP, DO IT EARLY, DO IT OFTEN AND DO IT SO MUCH THAT NOBODY HAS THE CHANCE TO THINK ABOUT IT.

American politics has just become a war, and it is all the Republican Party's fault.
The Dems started the war when they pulled that recount BS in 2000. They just didn't realise it.
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Post by Captain Cyran »

It was over at around 2:30 when the gap in Ohio started going back up. Then I knew Bush had it so I went to bed. I'm very thankful that Kerry just let it drop. The country would have a lot of problems with a second lawsuit over this.

But for Republicans. You fools, you have opened the Democratic candidate up for a run by Hillary Clinton. :cry:
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Post by AdmiralKanos »

Watching the Americans right now is kind of like watching those neighbours who are living in Credit Heaven: maxing out their credit cards, having two mortgages on their home, parking their third SUV next to the fire hydrant, going on vacations they can't afford, holding loud parties late at night, and burning their bridges because they don't need them. You sort of envy their luxury and happiness while waiting for their house of cards to collapse so you can say "I told you so."
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Post by Iceberg »

And yet somehow... there is hope. Because 2006 is just around the corner. And I think two years can change things.

Maybe I'm a silly dumbass. But I'd rather cling to some shred of hope, then fall screaming into a pit of despair. And even America can change if we get hit over the head hard enough with our own stupidity.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Think of it this way. If we're right about Bush, and I see nothing saying otherwise right now, then another 4 years may just crippled the nation in such a way as to make voting Republican again a very bad thing in the future. Much like how New Labour kicked the Tories out when Blair came in after Major.

I'm doubting that would still apply to the real hardliners though.
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Post by Pablo Sanchez »

Aeolus wrote:The Dems started the war when they pulled that recount BS in 2000. They just didn't realise it.
"Durrr... yuo started it!" What a meaningless and stupid discussion this will be.

BTW, how old are you? Can you remember as far back as 1994?
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Post by theski »

AdmiralKanos wrote:Watching the Americans right now is kind of like watching those neighbours who are living in Credit Heaven: maxing out their credit cards, having two mortgages on their home, parking their third SUV next to the fire hydrant, going on vacations they can't afford, holding loud parties late at night, and burning their bridges because they don't need them. You sort of envy their luxury and happiness while waiting for their house of cards to collapse so you can say "I told you so."
Guess you have to wait another 4 years :)
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Post by Captain Cyran »

I think what pisses me off most is that I know why Bush won. It's because Kerry was possibly the worst guy we could have had to be candidate. Oh well, in all likelyhood Bush will only get more extreme with his ideas now that he doesn't need to worry about getting re-elected, if he does that will probably be enough to disenfranchise his supporters (knock on wood). Does anyone have any clues who the Dem's and Rep's will have run for President? My bet is Hillary, and some of my friends have said Obama would make a great VP. What about the Republicans. I'd love to see McCain but that's not gonna happen.
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Post by Aeolus »

Pablo Sanchez wrote:
Aeolus wrote:The Dems started the war when they pulled that recount BS in 2000. They just didn't realise it.
"Durrr... yuo started it!" What a meaningless and stupid discussion this will be.

BTW, how old are you? Can you remember as far back as 1994?
I was old enough to vote in 1994 thank you. And as for my comment, the fact remains. As far as the Reps are concerned the Dems broke tradition in 2000 with the recount. The Reps have been on a war footing ever sense. If the Dems only now think they are at war....
For I dipt into the future, far as human eye could see,
Saw the Vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be;
Saw the heavens fill with commerce, argosies of magic sails,
Pilots of the purple twilight dropping down with costly bales;
Heard the heavens fill with shouting, and there rain'd a ghastly dew
From the nations' airy navies grappling in the central blue;
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Post by AdmiralKanos »

If the Republicans control virtually all of the government now, they're going to have trouble blaming Democratic resistance for anything that goes wrong. Mind you, they'll probably blame them anyway, and people like Limbaugh and Hannity will make the yokels believe it.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

It's scary to think any side should have that much power unopposed. A double-edged sword it may be, though still a scary prospect.
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Post by Gustav32Vasa »

Iceberg wrote:And yet somehow... there is hope. Because 2006 is just around the corner. And I think two years can change things.
Eh, dont you mean 2008? :cry:
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Post by BlkbrryTheGreat »

Darth Wong wrote:It would appear that Alec Baldwin was correct last year when he said that the Democratic Party's failure to stick to its ideological values was going to cost it the election (I've said this before and I'll say it again; the fact that an actor says something is hardly authoritative, but it is hardly perjorative either; I don't see any reason to take an actor's political statements any less seriously than those of any other TV personality, especially if I happen to think those statements are correct).

When you look at the people who voted Bush, they tended to fall into 4 groups:
  1. Neo-cons (eg- Axis Kast, Marina). This is actually a fairly small group, as they need to be quite knowledgeable about foreign affairs while simultaneously being rigidly doctrinaire about it.
  2. Religious fanatics. America's version of Al-Quaeda will vote for Bush even if he eats babies, as long as he does so while praising Jesus.
  3. Rednecks, by which (for the benefit of semantic nitpickers) I refer to anti-intellectual rural social conservatives, of the sort to be found often (but not exclusively) in the Midwestern and particularly Southern United States. To put it simply, these people employ tribal thinking, Bush is part of their tribe, and they want to help him kick the shit out of people who are in the "other" tribe (which increasingly means "the rest of the world").
  4. Mostly reasonable people who were influenced by loyalty to their Commander in Chief, childish resentment against the rest of the world for daring to have opinions on America's presidency, the Bush team's superior campaign skills, or the fact that Kerry couldn't convince them he had strong convictions about anything.
Of those, the first three are immutable; attempting to sway such people would be an exercise in futility. But #4 is a key factor and the DNC fucked up by assuming that Clinton's centrism would work twice. The Republican Party had eight years to think about how Clinton beat them, and they came up with this "flip-flopping" thing, which is just a brilliant piece of advertising for extremist policies when you think about it. Kerry forged ahead with a centrist platform while the RNC was hammering him for not picking a side and sticking to it. If the DNC is to emerge victorious in the next election, they will have to come up with a counter to this technique, because you can bet your balls you'll be seeing it again in 4 years.
The really irritating part is that Fox News is spinning the result as an overwhleming backlash against "secularism".... fuckers.
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Post by phongn »

Gustav32Vasa wrote:
Iceberg wrote:And yet somehow... there is hope. Because 2006 is just around the corner. And I think two years can change things.
Eh, dont you mean 2008? :cry:
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