Patrick Degan wrote:I'm sorry, but your analysis here is flawed. Hubert Humphrey lost because he was Lyndon Johnson's VP, and LBJ had been so totally discredited by the Vietnam war that Humphrey had no chance —Tar Baby Syndrome.
I don't think my analysis was flawed. I do think you didn't read it carefully enough. For starters, I never said Humphrey lost because he was too liberal. You may note that I pointed to McGovern as the start of this trend. I referred to Humphrey only to note that in McGovern, the Democrats chose a more liberal politician than Humphrey was to run next time around.
Patrick Degan wrote:McGovern lost in '72 in part because his one running mate was driven off the ticket when revelations of his previous nervous breakdown came to light (and back then, that was a career-killer) and of course also due to the ultimately-revealed criminality of CREEP, which brought about Nixon's downfall.
McGovern's VP candidate was a factor, but CREEP was far less of one. CREEP's actions can't explain the
massive landslide. McGovern carried
one state, for pete's sake. To this day it remains the biggest landslide victory in presidential history. CREEP couldn't magically engineer this popular disenchantment with McGovern, and his VP candidate can't explain it either. The VP doesn't have that much to do with it, as most American's are aware of what a small role the VP's job is.
Patrick Degan wrote:Mondale suffered by association with the then-discredited presidency of Jimmy Carter. It didn't help that helooked as if he had been essentially bullied into picking Geraldine Ferraro as his running-mate by the DNC machine, nor that he had what humourist Mark Russell described as "Norwegian charisma" (falling somewhere between that of a Presbyterian minister and a tree).
All true, but again, even that doesn't fully explain it. Reagan was a popular president. But even then he was portrayed as alternately as senile old fool and a warmonger. I remember the Reagan years, and I remember how cordially Reagan was despised by his political opponents. And Reagan was still able to pull off a massive landslide.
Patrick Degan wrote:Dukakis... well, he simply was an idiot. He was dead the moment he made his debut on national TV tank-racing.
Again, there's more to it than that. Think for a moment. What's the nearest thing to Dukakis' tank ride you can think of in the past couple of decades? A politician posturing and putting on a military image... This one's easy: George W. Bush in a navy flight suit grinning from the deck of an aircraft carrier. Yet Bush's military posturing didn't result in his political destruction the way Dukakis' tank ride did. Why? Because more than just the image is needed. What Dukakis' tank ride did was make him look silly and phony, because as a liberal (another part of the liberal reputation is being soft on defense), and as one who had opposed military spending, he was seen as a dove. He looked to people like a dove pathetically pretending to be a hawk in order to grab votes. It didn't fool anybody, and it smacked of desperation. But the key point is that if Dukakis had not been perceived as a liberal dove, the photos of him in the tank would not have had that effect. Again, it was his liberal image that hurt him. Post-Vietnam liberals, accurately or not, have a deeply imbedded image as anti-war doves to live down, so to see one dressed up, and pretending to be a warrior just revolted most people with its phoniness. Bush didn't have that dovish reputation to live down, so the image of him in warrior garb didn't have the same destructive effects.
Patrick Degan wrote:And I hate to have to remind you of this, but Gore actually won the popular vote in 2000, and we all know about the shennanigans in Florida which have been debated to death.
Again, go back and reread my post. You will see I did not mention Gore as being quite so much a part of this trend. I said:
Perinquus wrote:Every time they run a very liberal candidate for president they lose. McGovern in '72, Mondale in '84, Dukakis in '88, Gore in '00 (perhaps the least liberal of the bunch), and now Kerry in '04. The only two Democratic presidents of the last three decades were the ones not seen as being very liberal.
Gore didn't portray himself as being as much of a moderate as Clinton did, (and he also lacked Clinton's charisma) and as close as the election was, I think that if he had, he'd have won.
Patrick Degan wrote:Kerry did not lose because he was "too liberal". He lost because he ran an incompetent campaign —almost Dukakis-level incompetent— and because he didn't present himself as anything much beyond being the Un-Bush.
He certainly ran an incompetent campaign, but I still maintain his liberal image hurt him. Just as Dukakis didn't fool anyone pretending to be the warrior he wasn't, Kerry didn't fool anyone either. And he had his own photo op misteps. A presidential candidate who comes off the campaign trail one time in order to cast a vote - a vote against letting the Clinton "Assault Weapons Ban" expire - and then dresses up in hunting attire and gets photographed carrying a shotgun, isn't fooling
anyone into thinking he's pro-Second Amendment. Another part of the liberal reputation is being very much in favor of gun control. Kerry not only gets tarred with this brush just for being a liberal, his voting record backs it up. Once again, his liberalism works against him with the voters.
Patrick Degan wrote:He lost because Democrats apparently still don't understand that they're in a knife-fight and continue to insist on playing by Marquis of Queensbury rules.
Oh come on. Kerry did not exactly shy away from negative campaigning. His whole campaign was basically negative. It was - as you yourself remarked - based around him
not being Bush more than it was him being
for anything. The whole thing was basically an attack on the president. And things like Kerry's references to Cheney's daughter were, rightly or wrongly, seen as low blows. He accused the president of "licensing a creed of greed", and for conducting the most arrogant and inept foreign policy in history (I'm not entirely in disagreement with him here, but you certainly can't say he's not criticizing the president with remarks like this).
Patrick Degan wrote:You could almost see Kerry's defeat well in advance when he let a month's organised slanders against him go unanswered, and the only reason he continued to be competitive at all was because of the manifest shortcomings of his opponnent. Bush Sr. would have disposed of Kerry on Labour Day. Likewise, Bill Clinton would have easily mopped the floor with Bush Jr. This race came down to the more incompetent campaigner losing, and in this case it was Kerry.
Well, I can't actually disagree with you here. They were both pretty horrible. It's bad when the politicians of both parties are such characterless non-entities. But here too, I think that Kerry's liberal image hurt him. With an opponent who not only has as little charisma as Bush does, PLUS a record that has galvanized so
many people so firmly against him, Bush
still won.
Patrick Degan wrote:It also came down to which campaigner was better at playing Alpha-male, which humans still respond to on an instinctive level, and Kerry wasn't up to the game —and even as it was Bush Jr. fucked it up; just not fatally so.
The Fortunate Son came up lucky once again. Against a strong and saavy challenger, Bush wouldn't have stood a chance in hell in this race.
I agree, more or less. The key difference is, I think a strong and savvy challenger would have played down his more liberal tendencies the way Clinton did. Kerry didn't. (Though in fairness, I don't think he could have. Clinton had the charisma to play it down without seeming phony, and he was from the southern wing of the Democratic party, rather than the eastern wing, which is an advantage in this gambit since southern Democrats are seen generally as being less liberal than New England ones.)