"Misunderestimated" Bush?

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Post by UCBooties »

Rogue 9 wrote:Moderate Christian wank? :wtf: What the hell are you talking about?
I'm saying that even if moral values was the most important issue to the electorate, it was still only top for 20%, so you're going to have to accept that wanting to ban Gay marriage was not the main issue for a lot of people. I wanted Kerry to win, but I certainly wasn't confident about his policies and plans, I just knew he was less extreme than Bush when it came to the issues I carried about. So what I'm saying is that we can't just assume that everyone who voted Bush was a fundie, it's just not true. Kerry failed to present any sort of cohesive plan and vision, and all the Kerry supporters seemed to say in his favor was "he's got to be better than Bush." That's not going to win over the moderates who aren't overly concerned about social progressive issues.

Now, what was it you didn't understand about my original post? Or is it just that my admission of my religion invalidates any view I may have, evan if I chose not to base my decisions on religous mandate, or the fact that we mght just agree on somthing. Fuck off.
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Post by Rogue 9 »

UCBooties wrote:
Rogue 9 wrote:Moderate Christian wank? :wtf: What the hell are you talking about?
I'm saying that even if moral values was the most important issue to the electorate, it was still only top for 20%, so you're going to have to accept that wanting to ban Gay marriage was not the main issue for a lot of people. I wanted Kerry to win, but I certainly wasn't confident about his policies and plans, I just knew he was less extreme than Bush when it came to the issues I carried about. So what I'm saying is that we can't just assume that everyone who voted Bush was a fundie, it's just not true. Kerry failed to present any sort of cohesive plan and vision, and all the Kerry supporters seemed to say in his favor was "he's got to be better than Bush." That's not going to win over the moderates who aren't overly concerned about social progressive issues.

Now, what was it you didn't understand about my original post? Or is it just that my admission of my religion invalidates any view I may have, evan if I chose not to base my decisions on religous mandate, or the fact that we mght just agree on somthing. Fuck off.
What? I wasn't even talking to you. I meant ReinnResauq, who said:
ReinnResauq wrote:So I ask how can the Democrats get the moderate christian wank to vote for them?
Which doesn't make any sense at all. It had nothing to do with you. And if your opinion was invalidated because you're a Christian, what does that do to mine then, eh? :P
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Post by UCBooties »

Ug, sorry to make a heel of myself. :banghead: I've been feeling a bit defensive since the election night fiasco and your post came right after mine so... Sorry I was a jackass.
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Post by CelesKnight »

I think that the Dems spent the past several weeks overestimating their own strength more than they have been underestimating Bush.

Errors:
1) The debate would have a huge impact -- I think someone here actually said something like "Bush can't possibly win now!" after the first debate. The debate was huge in that it gave the Dems hope, but it didn't translate into a large, longeterm benefit.

2) The 18-30s are going to turn out BIG for Kerry. -- The turnout was higher, but not any more than any other group. In hindsight, this should have been apparent after Dean lost.

3) Undercounted cellphone users were going to turn out BIG for Kerry. -- Actually, with only 5% of the people using cellphones exclusively, and with polls of cellphone-only users breaking something like 55-40 for Kerry, it should have been immediately apparent that this wasn't going to be as huge as liberal bloggers were expecting.

4) Uncounted Americans living abroad were going to turn out big for Kerry. -- I don't know if this happened or not. I do know that it didn't happen for the Repubs who were expecting Israeli Jews to turn out big for them.

5) Undecided were going to break BIG for Kerry., the Dems were expecting anywhere from 2-1 to 9-1 in favor of Kerry. -- RCP's last poll average had Kerry at 47.4%, Bush at 48.9. Actual results are about 48.0Kerry, 51.1Bush. It looks like the undecided broke 5-1 for Bush.

6) Zogby is the best pollster -- Zogby did terrible. The last set of Zogby polls, released midday November 2nd, overestimated Kerry by about 7%. (Less in some states, more in others.)

7) Big turnout benfits the Dems -- Everyone from Dems to Repubs thought this, but it didn't seem to be the case this time. On an aside, traditionally the Dems have been the party of the uninterested masses, while the Repubs have been the party of a somewhat smaller, much more active group. I wonder if this might be turning around.
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Post by Stark »

So does this all mean that Bush supporters are happy their regressive polices will be implemented? I'm not asking if they're all evil; its democracy, and if the country has a majority of three-legged people you're going to see a lot of sidewalk development. I'm wondering if Bush supporters think to themselves 'Ha! Social progress down the toilet!' or something. I can see why people voted for Bush (it's just as bad in Australia, believe me) but is anyone HAPPY about it?
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Post by Axis Kast »

So does this all mean that Bush supporters are happy their regressive polices will be implemented? I'm not asking if they're all evil; its democracy, and if the country has a majority of three-legged people you're going to see a lot of sidewalk development. I'm wondering if Bush supporters think to themselves 'Ha! Social progress down the toilet!' or something. I can see why people voted for Bush (it's just as bad in Australia, believe me) but is anyone HAPPY about it?
My support for Bush involves trade-offs. Red Imperator managed to pin down my thought process in his own post.

I am a relatively extreme social liberal. I support gay marriage on the supposition that civil unions are unconstitutional ("seperate but equal is inherently unequal"). I support affirmative action (because statistics suggest that minorities are more apt to face social and financial hurdles than the white majority). I support freedom of choice (in the short to medium term). I support rational gun control (i.e. stricter registration laws and potentially enforced attendance at a minimum number of gun safety courses for all new owners).

On the other hand, I am far more confident in Bush's ability to handle the economy than Kerry (I find protectionism to be an anathema), and I generally support many of Bush's economic proposals such as social security privatization, capital-gains tax restructuring, and tort reform outside his extreme tax cuts (which, while I can stomach, I don't think need to be quite as high as they are).

I also support Bush's proactive approach to the War on Terrorism, and never felt he should have been "punished" for making the decision that he did in Iraq. I also disliked the notion of letting it seem as if the international community had unduly influenced an American vote. (It's one thing to say we should give lip service to the international community, and another to suggest that every emotional outburst elsewhere in the world should be taken as serious, legitimate criticism of our government.)

It was for those two reasons that I voted Bush. Right now, at least, I'm content to sacrifice unattainable social goals (let's face it; the nation is hugely socially conservative) for security and stability.

Note that the market rose something like more than 170 points today, and that even NPR admitted most of Wall Street was cheering for Bush, whom it believed would be more pro-business than Kerry.
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Post by UCBooties »

No, I don't think the majority of Bush supporters ared dancing with glee at the prospect of anti-gay legislation and a bible weilding Supreme Court (though I'm betting there's a very happy Bible belt at the moment), I think a lot of Bush supporters are thinking, "Good, we will remain strong on foriegn policy, we'll keep our leadership intact while our troops are abroad, we're not going to get major taxation increases." A lot of Bush support had to come from middle class suburban voters, and yes, some of them are probably relieved that "marriage as an institution is safe." But, with the exception of those election specificly dealing with a marriage ban, I don't think that was the deciding factor for blue collar and white collar voters. I can see it in my own family, my mother and I went Kerry, Dad went Bush. Dad didn't go Bush because he opposes Gay marriage, but because he felt that Kerry had not done enough to show he was prepared to lead the nation.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

It wasn't a matter of underestimating Bush. Kerry, very simply, ran a shitty and incompetent campaign. The one thing that can be said in Bush's favour is that Kerry did demonstrate his unfitness for the presidency in comparison. Anybody who's too stupid to defeat George W. Bush in the election which just passed is clearly not up to the challenge of outwitting terrorists.
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Post by CelesKnight »

Stark wrote:So does this all mean that Bush supporters are happy their regressive polices will be implemented? I'm not asking if they're all evil; its democracy, and if the country has a majority of three-legged people you're going to see a lot of sidewalk development. I'm wondering if Bush supporters think to themselves 'Ha! Social progress down the toilet!' or something. I can see why people voted for Bush (it's just as bad in Australia, believe me) but is anyone HAPPY about it?
Yes, conservatives are very happy that more conservative policies are about to be implimented.

No, conservatives are not happy about regressive policies. That's because conservatives don't consider their own policies regressive any more than liberals consider their own policies regressive/tratorous/distructive/evil/insert-favorite-negative-word-here.

Many Bush supporters are not happy about voting for him. Depending on how conservative they are, they would perfer anyone from McCain to Zell Miller. The same goes for Kerry supporters--I'm sure that they would perfer anyone from McCain to Dean. However, Bush and Kerry's names each somehow wandered onto the ballot, and that's what we get.

A lot of traditional conservatives think Bush is to liberal on social issues, compromises too much, isn't interested in protecting the borders, is way, way too big government and big spending, and is too involved in foreign affairs.
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Post by CelesKnight »

I should have said, "For instance, a lot of traditional conservatives..." and followed it with "While neocons support bush on foreign adventures but don't conservative social polices." Etc, etc. etc. I'm getting tired.
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Post by Axis Kast »

Hold your tongue.

As moderate as my social views may be, I wouldn't back a McCain candidacy without reservations. The man's proven his inability to be a "good soldier" - something extremely important when the partisan divide is as bitter as it is today.
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Post by Beowulf »

Axis Kast wrote:Hold your tongue.

As moderate as my social views may be, I wouldn't back a McCain candidacy without reservations. The man's proven his inability to be a "good soldier" - something extremely important when the partisan divide is as bitter as it is today.
Are you on crack? What do you call him campaigning for Bush?
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Post by Durandal »

Axis Kast wrote:Hold your tongue.

As moderate as my social views may be, I wouldn't back a McCain candidacy without reservations. The man's proven his inability to be a "good soldier" - something extremely important when the partisan divide is as bitter as it is today.
The guy was endorsing Bush after Bush's campaign had smeared him with allegations of having an illegitimate black child during the 2000 primaries. Just what kind of devotion are you looking for?
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Post by Symmetry »

Gustav32Vasa wrote:That’s not underestimating Bush its underestimating the number of stupid people in the US.
I think it has more to do with most democrats being unable to believe that Republicans could ever have serious reasons for disagreeing with them.
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Post by Spanky The Dolphin »

Yeah, Heaven forbid I vote for the guy that you didn't. The only rational explenation must be that I'm too stupid to form my own opinions and shouldn't have been allowed to vote in the first place... :roll:

Grow up.
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Post by Durandal »

Who exactly are you responding to?
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Post by Spanky The Dolphin »

Gustav32Vasa.
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Post by The_Nice_Guy »

The Dems could have won if they had used Joe Lieberman. But conventional wisdom says the very nature of the primary process means that selected party candidates have to start off on the fringes to garner their party's support, and then move to the center during the elections.

Bush gets a bit of an advantage here because he's the incumbent; he doesn't need to pander to the fringe to get selected as his party's candidate. But he did so anyway.

The key point is that with Bush elected, the unity of getting him elected for whatever reason for the various factions is likely to be gone. There'll be a whole lot of internal backbiting as everybody starts on their own agenda, whether it's homosexual discrimination, foreign affairs, anti big government, tax cut crusaders, etc.

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Re: "Misunderestimated" Bush?

Post by NecronLord »

Augustus wrote:Isnt the wailing about 'fundies', 'red necks' and 'thuggery' really just an inability to come to terms with the social and political realities?
The thing is, aren't those the realities? If hicks and fundies don't give him his most dedicated support base, who does?
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Post by Darth Wong »

Like it or not, the majority of Bush supporters cited "moral values" or similar bullshit as their primary reason for voting. So you Bush people can bitch and mewl and whine all you like about other reasons to vote for Mr. War/Deficit/Jesus, but the fact is that his campaign was geared toward the ignorant and stupid, and it was the ignorant and stupid who vaulted him into a second term. That's reality.
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Post by ReinnResauq »

I may seem a little off there, but didn't Kerry vote for a lot of religious incentives? I read about that in a Time magazine. Didn't Lieberman say?
Joe Lieberman wrote:"While so much of our economic life is thriving, too much of our moral life is still stagnating. As a people, we need to reaffirm our faith."
It's not as if the Dems aren't cowtowing to the religious right. If a leading democrat compares faith to morality, isn't that a very obvious concession to the right?
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Post by Darth Wong »

ReinnResauq wrote:I may seem a little off there, but didn't Kerry vote for a lot of religious incentives? I read about that in a Time magazine. Didn't Lieberman say?
Joe Lieberman wrote:"While so much of our economic life is thriving, too much of our moral life is still stagnating. As a people, we need to reaffirm our faith."
It's not as if the Dems aren't cowtowing to the religious right. If a leading democrat compares faith to morality, isn't that a very obvious concession to the right?
Of course it is. The only way to get into power in the USA is to pander to the Coalition of the Narrow-Minded.
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Post by Axis Kast »

Are you on crack? What do you call him campaigning for Bush?
A call that a prudent decision to wave the white flag - but too little, too late.
The guy was endorsing Bush after Bush's campaign had smeared him with allegations of having an illegitimate black child during the 2000 primaries. Just what kind of devotion are you looking for?
When did this happen?! McCain endorsed Bush because he was expected to do so; yet he also gave the indication that he backed John Kerry's candidacy as well.
Like it or not, the majority of Bush supporters cited "moral values" or similar bullshit as their primary reason for voting. So you Bush people can bitch and mewl and whine all you like about other reasons to vote for Mr. War/Deficit/Jesus, but the fact is that his campaign was geared toward the ignorant and stupid, and it was the ignorant and stupid who vaulted him into a second term. That's reality.
So the devout are necessarily "ignorant and stupid"? This is exactly what I'm talking about when I point out SD.net's rabid, irrational anti-religious bias. As much as I think it's detestable, plenty of people do have strong, intensively-reasoned arguments as to why they support the Bush moral agenda.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Darth Wong wrote:
ReinnResauq wrote:I may seem a little off there, but didn't Kerry vote for a lot of religious incentives? I read about that in a Time magazine. Didn't Lieberman say?
Joe Lieberman wrote:"While so much of our economic life is thriving, too much of our moral life is still stagnating. As a people, we need to reaffirm our faith."
It's not as if the Dems aren't cowtowing to the religious right. If a leading democrat compares faith to morality, isn't that a very obvious concession to the right?
Of course it is. The only way to get into power in the USA is to pander to the Coalition of the Narrow-Minded.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Axis Kast wrote:As much as I think it's detestable, plenty of people do have strong, intensively-reasoned arguments as to why they support the Bush moral agenda.
And what would those be, exactly? Keeping in mind that an argument can be "intensively reasoned" and still be flat-out wrong.
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