I'm Curious, anyone know how the Black Vote swayed??

THEHOOLIGANJEDI · Post by **THEHOOLIGANJEDI** » 2004-11-10 11:43pm

During the Election. Are there any statistics out currently?? I know that in 2000 That Bush only snagged 9% of the Black vote. (the lowest ever) How well did he do this time around??

Eframepilot · Post by **Eframepilot** » 2004-11-10 11:49pm

Bush got 11% this time, so it went up by a tiny bit. Probably not a meaningful change, though.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-11-11 12:04am

Yeah. 9/10 blacks voted for Kerry.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-11-11 12:53am

Eframepilot wrote:Bush got 11% this time, so it went up by a tiny bit. Probably not a meaningful change, though.

Not yet, the thing is Bush has broken away a lot of the support using the fundy appeal. It's only the tradition and the fact that the Democratic promises more slops for the pork barrel trough (and if you think that's a gross mischaracterization I refer you to Al Sharptons DNC speach). It's worth noting that on the gay marriage proposal, even the black vote broke for such a ban. Stuff like that doesn't bode well for the Democrats long term; the Republicans are making inroads on those "moral" issues.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2004-11-11 11:40am

It was up 2% from 2000, as said before, as mentioned before. The slight shift is probably the result of religion being more of an issue and things like welfare being less of one this time around, and blacks in general being more religous than whites. Of course, nothing short of some government plan as significant as the New Deal or Great Society will get a majority of blacks to vote Republican.

Col. Crackpot · Post by **Col. Crackpot** » 2004-11-11 11:55am

the big story was the Hispanic vote. 44% voted for Bush. This is up from 35% in 2000.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-11-11 12:51pm

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi wrote:It was up 2% from 2000, as said before, as mentioned before. The slight shift is probably the result of religion being more of an issue and things like welfare being less of one this time around, and blacks in general being more religous than whites. Of course, nothing short of some government plan as significant as the New Deal or Great Society will get a majority of blacks to vote Republican.

I wouldn't be so sure of that last statement. The minority vote tends to go exclusively on economics (read: unions and welfare checks) and tradition. As the Republican reversal of the Solid South showed, the latter doesn't count for dick. The real question is will the gravy train keep on rollin' or not. If the Republicans can strengthen the religious vote and come off looking better economically, they'll break the Democrats. It might well happen.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-11-11 12:59pm

Stormbringer wrote:I wouldn't be so sure of that last statement. The minority vote tends to go exclusively on economics (read: unions and welfare checks) and tradition.

No--only blacks and Indians vote almost exclusively on unions, welfare, and social security. Asians, Hispanics, Jews, and Eastern Europeans are much more heterogeneous in their voting schemes--and much closer to white voters.

As the Republican reversal of the Solid South showed, the latter doesn't count for dick. The real question is will the gravy train keep on rollin' or not. If the Republicans can strengthen the religious vote and come off looking better economically, they'll break the Democrats. It might well happen.

The Democrats are in huge trouble, right now. Their base of black voters is too small, and their margins of victory in other minorities and women are not large enough to counter Republican advantages in men. If they allow themselves to become the party of the black voter, they will become increasingly insignificant. On the other hand, they cannot change their policies so radically as to alienate black voters, women, or minorities. They thus have to expand their base while sticking to their guns as much as possible--an extremely difficult proposition.