Japan's Navy put on high alert due to unidentified sub

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2004-11-11 05:12pm

In June 1983, a Victor III SSGN collided with a Chinese
Han SSN, 100 km SE of Vladviostok.

The Han left parts of screws and rudder imbedded in the
Victor III's bow, and the CO of K-324 claimed that the Han
sank to 1000 metres depth with the loss of it's entire
70 man crew.

A Soviet survey in 1989 found extremely high radiation levels

measuring 1000 rotengens/hr within a 5 mile radii of the hulk
of the Han.

Obituaries appearing in chinese papers confirmed that
many Chinese senior submariners were lost in a sub
accident in '83.

Post by **The Yosemite Bear** » 2004-11-11 05:29pm

Stormbringer wrote:
HemlockGrey wrote:"Spotted near Okinawa?" I second the recommendation for a peaceful resolution....
Shep aside, who does want war?

Rumsfield

irishmick79 · Post by **irishmick79** » 2004-11-11 07:55pm

Under what sort of circumstances would NK or China want to send a sub into Japanese territorial waters? It's an insanely provocative excercise, if they're just running a few drills.

Would they be interested in something else, perhaps? New equipment they want to test? A cargo ship they really, really wanted to get a bead on?

Symmetry · Post by **Symmetry** » 2004-11-11 08:02pm

irishmick79 wrote:Under what sort of circumstances would NK or China want to send a sub into Japanese territorial waters? It's an insanely provocative excercise, if they're just running a few drills.

Would they be interested in something else, perhaps? New equipment they want to test? A cargo ship they really, really wanted to get a bead on?

Insanely provocative is par for the course with the chinese. Remember the AWACs being ramed a while ago?

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2004-11-11 08:05pm

irishmick79 wrote:Under what sort of circumstances would NK or China want to send a sub into Japanese territorial waters? It's an insanely provocative excercise, if they're just running a few drills.

Would they be interested in something else, perhaps? New equipment they want to test? A cargo ship they really, really wanted to get a bead on?

There's all sorts of reasons. The US routinely did far more provactive towards the Soviets during the Cold War. Cable taps and other spy missions. And god knows what that hasn't been declassified.

Knife · Post by **Knife** » 2004-11-11 10:22pm

irishmick79 wrote:Under what sort of circumstances would NK or China want to send a sub into Japanese territorial waters? It's an insanely provocative excercise, if they're just running a few drills.

Would they be interested in something else, perhaps? New equipment they want to test? A cargo ship they really, really wanted to get a bead on?

*shrug* the only true way to get good at sneaky shit, it to go about doing sneaky shit. In this case, they weren't that sneaky.

Aaron · Post by **Aaron** » 2004-11-11 10:23pm

Knife wrote:
*shrug* the only true way to get good at sneaky shit, it to go about doing sneaky shit. In this case, they weren't that sneaky.

They need quieter subs to be doing that kind of stuff. I understand the ones the Chinese have are the underwater equivilant of a chopper (bike).

Knife · Post by **Knife** » 2004-11-11 10:33pm

Cpl Kendall wrote:
Knife wrote:
*shrug* the only true way to get good at sneaky shit, it to go about doing sneaky shit. In this case, they weren't that sneaky.
They need quieter subs to be doing that kind of stuff. I understand the ones the Chinese have are the underwater equivilant of a chopper (bike).

True, but alot of the stuff is crew compedence too. You need well trained crew to do the sneaky shit, and they need to practice.

Aaron · Post by **Aaron** » 2004-11-11 10:43pm

Knife wrote: True, but alot of the stuff is crew compedence too. You need well trained crew to do the sneaky shit, and they need to practice.

True enough. And the Chinese seem to be flexing their military muscles lately.

moku · Post by **moku** » 2004-11-13 01:25am

It was Chinese. Diplomatic relations are in strife in the moment, since the Japs want a swift apology, which is yet to come.

See here.

They stated they identified it by it's cruise sound. I am not specialist in marine warships, but that sounds unbelievable to me.

Kazuaki Shimazaki · Post by **Kazuaki Shimazaki** » 2004-11-13 01:34am

In fact, I can't believe they didn't classify it sooner. I bet they knew it back when they were still officially saying "We weren't sure".

The determination of whether it is a nuke boat or diesel is supposed to be pretty easy - the nuke boat has these steam plant and pump noises, the SSK doesn't. With SSKs, all you should be able to hear underwater are the whine of the electric motors.

For the screw noise ... look, all modern submarines have moved to the 7-blade configuration or the even newer pumpjet configuration. The Han's screw, which is most likely a 5-blader, should sound really distinctive.

Not to mention the Han's probably about the last nuke sub working that didn't put any real effort into silencing.

White Haven · Post by **White Haven** » 2004-11-13 01:42am

How /else/ do you classify a submerged sub? Given that they aren't /really/ likely to oblige you by surfacing and letting you get a visual spot on them...what, telepathy? Active sonar at close enough range and with high enough resolution to get a silhouette? Big freakin ears, s'the only realistic option, and has been for a long, long time.

moku · Post by **moku** » 2004-11-13 01:48am

Cool. Well, I suppose it is just another simple skill, like looking at a shell and determining what gun it came from. Thanks.

Captain Kruger · Post by **Captain Kruger** » 2004-11-13 11:10am

moku, who's the babe in your avatar?

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2004-11-13 11:31am

White Haven wrote:How /else/ do you classify a submerged sub? Given that they aren't /really/ likely to oblige you by surfacing and letting you get a visual spot on them...what, telepathy? Active sonar at close enough range and with high enough resolution to get a silhouette? Big freakin ears, s'the only realistic option, and has been for a long, long time.

The sounds that the sub makes submerged are distinct to a class and can be easily identified once the sonar operators (passive sonar, mind you) are made familiar with the class. Which of course means that one must be detected and tracked first.

White Haven · Post by **White Haven** » 2004-11-13 03:33pm

All those hours of cudgelling my face in Sub Command paid off, yay!

..

...

GOD that's a hard sim.

Knife · Post by **Knife** » 2004-11-13 05:30pm

White Haven wrote:All those hours of cudgelling my face in Sub Command paid off, yay!

..

...

GOD that's a hard sim.

But very fun.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2004-11-13 05:58pm

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:
The sounds that the sub makes submerged are distinct to a class and can be easily identified once the sonar operators (passive sonar, mind you) are made familiar with the class. Which of course means that one must be detected and tracked first.

With good sonar, and anything but the quietest boats as a target, you can often tell individual boats of a class apart. Given how nosiy Han's are, its likely they know the sail number of this thing.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2004-11-13 06:00pm

Stormbringer wrote:
There's all sorts of reasons. The US routinely did far more provactive towards the Soviets during the Cold War. Cable taps and other spy missions. And god knows what that hasn't been declassified.

Those cabal taps and spy missions you read about are still classified. The personal who spoke about them for such books as Blind Mans Bluff did so illegally.

moku · Post by **moku** » 2004-11-13 08:05pm

Captain Kruger wrote:moku, who's the babe in your avatar?

Kazuaki Shimazaki · Post by **Kazuaki Shimazaki** » 2004-11-13 09:05pm

Sea Skimmer wrote:Those cabal taps and spy missions you read about are still classified. The personal who spoke about them for such books as Blind Mans Bluff did so illegally.

While undoubtedly true if the stuff's not declassified, it is honestly a little hypocritical to use the word "illegal" to describe blabbing out the United States' illegal actions (everyone may do it, but it still isn't legal) during the Cold War.

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2004-11-13 09:25pm

Kazuaki Shimazaki wrote:In fact, I can't believe they didn't classify it sooner. I bet they knew it back when they were still officially saying "We weren't sure".

The determination of whether it is a nuke boat or diesel is supposed to be pretty easy - snip.

I would think that they did not want to let onto the Chinese exactly how capable they are. The Chinese may know, but why let them have any certainty?

Kazuaki Shimazaki · Post by **Kazuaki Shimazaki** » 2004-11-13 09:53pm

Stuart Mackey wrote:I would think that they did not want to let onto the Chinese exactly how capable they are. The Chinese may know, but why let them have any certainty?

Classifying a Han (think November or Victor-I at the very best) is so easy using modern tech that that kinda ability is not even half a secret. It wasn't a secret since the Walkers leaked that the US got this kind of ability to the Soviet Union. What the Japanese want to show them is that any such attempt would be futile (strength). In fact, though that would seem to not be the case, they want to create this impression they were tracked the moment they left port (like the US hanging onto the old Yankees), and they only bothered to tell them they were being followed at all now that they penetrated the waters.

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2004-11-13 10:18pm

Kazuaki Shimazaki wrote:
Stuart Mackey wrote:I would think that they did not want to let onto the Chinese exactly how capable they are. The Chinese may know, but why let them have any certainty?
Classifying a Han (think November or Victor-I at the very best) is so easy using modern tech that that kinda ability is not even half a secret. It wasn't a secret since the Walkers leaked that the US got this kind of ability to the Soviet Union. What the Japanese want to show them is that any such attempt would be futile (strength). In fact, though that would seem to not be the case, they want to create this impression they were tracked the moment they left port (like the US hanging onto the old Yankees), and they only bothered to tell them they were being followed at all now that they penetrated the waters.

Thats nice, but I rather think that the Chinese dont know exactly how capable the Japanese are. This is an advantage tactically and at the political level as it effects how governments and sub commanders work.
In this case the Chinese would have known that this noisy old bucket would be dectectable easily but not nessesarily how easily.

Kazuaki Shimazaki · Post by **Kazuaki Shimazaki** » 2004-11-14 02:09am

Stuart Mackey wrote:Thats nice, but I rather think that the Chinese dont know exactly how capable the Japanese are. This is an advantage tactically and at the political level as it effects how governments and sub commanders work. In this case the Chinese would have known that this noisy old bucket would be dectectable easily but not nessesarily how easily.

They already knew their Han subs are easily detected. All they need is to buy a copy of Hostile Waters or Blind Man's Bluff. If they can't read English, I'm sure they have translators. If they had to wait until this to realize it, it is a wonder the country hasn't collapsed already.

I'm not sure that this plan of tending the uncertainty towards an underestimate is such a good idea. Because as a Chinese commander, there are several ways to read this, but one of them goes like this:
1) Han wasn't detected until it got into Japanese territorial waters (given).
2) Japan takes days to confirm the classification of that noisy old fart (given).
3) Thus Japanese ASW is not that good (induction).
4) Using a newer boat, say a Kilo or the new Type 93 when it comes into service, it might be totally undetectable before it can wreak major harm (extrapolation).
5) This is a fact we can use to pressure Japan (conclusion).

And this will be the scenario that the PRC senior leadership would like to hear when they decide they need military options to pressure Japan over something. I fear this would likely be the only one they'd hear in such a case.

Letting them have this attitude is fine if the Japanese are in fact in total control, so when the Chinese actually try anything, they would hear torpedo tubes flooding from a Japanese submarine a single kilometer aft they never even heard.

But if not, encouraging this attitude in the Chinese isn't that good. You don't want them risking on this possibility, succeeding, and getting concessions because of that.