A Taiwan Hypothetical

[Stuart Mackey]

Still why bring in the Australians? They're not needed.

Why indeed? I would suggest political reasons. It is always good to have as many, democratic, nations supporting your stance as possible to give ligitimacy to your actions.
Also, I think that Aussie owes a favour for US support over Timor..or so rumour has it.

The UN will not be able to take action against the US or the PRC, has both nations have vetos. And has for PR, well I'd bet it be interesting to watch both sides spinning their actions. But at the end of the day, S Korea, Japan and the other local nations would be, I think, in favor of containing China.

I think that its in every ones interests to have peace in the area. I once spoke to a Chinese lady who was of the opinion that China's sabre rattling over Taiwan was just that, sabre rattling, nothing more. They have to save face as they know they cannot succesfully deal with Taiwan in such a way as to enforce their claims.
Also, China seems more interested in trade at this point due to their millitary weakness, so why fight when you cannot win? .

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The Chinese will not act against Taiwan until they have simultaneously the ability to definitely knock Taiwan out without a protracted war, and secondly, deter the United States from intervening while simultaneously doing that. Or in otherwords, expect China to reconquer Taiwan in about a hundred years.

[Stuart Mackey]

The Chinese will not act against Taiwan until they have simultaneously the ability to definitely knock Taiwan out without a protracted war, and secondly, deter the United States from intervening while simultaneously doing that. Or in otherwords, expect China to reconquer Taiwan in about a hundred years.

My thoughts exactly. Begs the question of why does Taiwan wait?..Politics I guess.

[Sea Skimmer]

My thoughts exactly. Begs the question of why does Taiwan wait?..Politics I guess.

Because in the future they might stand to gain a lot from rejoining the mainland or at least pursuing much closer ties, and they already have extensive trade relations. And since they don't stand to gain much of anything by declaring independence, why do it?

[Chris OFarrell]

The Chinese will not act against Taiwan until they have simultaneously the ability to definitely knock Taiwan out without a protracted war, and secondly, deter the United States from intervening while simultaneously doing that. Or in otherwords, expect China to reconquer Taiwan in about a hundred years.

My thoughts exactly. Begs the question of why does Taiwan wait?..Politics I guess.

They are playing for China to continue to evolve, the older hardliners to grow old and die and eventualy Taiwans independence becoming accepted, rather then the oldschool 60 year olds currently leading the PRC screaming for them to come back to the fold.

So they wait. If Taiwan was to officaly declare independence, China would HAVE to act simply due to the massive loss of face they would suffer if they did not. They may not have the ability to take the Islands, but they would give it a good try and may well turn large parts into self lit parking lots. But both sides simply keep insiting politly that they are right and the other must come around while nothing happening and everyone is happy.

Taiwan is simply playing the long game. While making themselves very valuable to the West with their high tech industry and forerign currency holdings. So the West won't be tempted to trade them away to China.

[Stuart Mackey]

My thoughts exactly. Begs the question of why does Taiwan wait?..Politics I guess.

Because in the future they might stand to gain a lot from rejoining the mainland or at least pursuing much closer ties, and they already have extensive trade relations.

What would they gain from joining that they cannot get by being independent? They could gain just as much by being an independent nation with normall political and economic relations with the rest of the world.

And since they don't stand to gain much of anything by declaring independence,

Say who?

why do it?

Because they see themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese? {not that I have seen any polling on how they see themselves} If so thats a good enough reason Imo.

[Stuart Mackey]

They are playing for China to continue to evolve, the older hardliners to grow old and die and eventualy Taiwans independence becoming accepted, rather then the oldschool 60 year olds currently leading the PRC screaming for them to come back to the fold.

So they wait. If Taiwan was to officaly declare independence, China would HAVE to act simply due to the massive loss of face they would suffer if they did not. They may not have the ability to take the Islands, but they would give it a good try and may well turn large parts into self lit parking lots. But both sides simply keep insiting politly that they are right and the other must come around while nothing happening and everyone is happy.

Taiwan is simply playing the long game. While making themselves very valuable to the West with their high tech industry and forerign currency holdings. So the West won't be tempted to trade them away to China.

Makes sense, but only so long as they are valuble and China does not gain the ability to invade or retain the urge to keep Taiwan.

[Grand Moff Yenchin]

There are still significant numbers of people in Taiwan who are strongly against independence, part of them are 2nd and 3rd generations of those who retreated to Taiwan at 1949. Another portion is the "provincers" who aren't convinced on how good Taiwan could maintain it's independence.

Not to mention that the propaganda by the KMT government in the past still has it's effects. In the past the Taiwan independence movement people were persecuted and described as traitors. Nowadays although the people are not thought as so, but the notion of "independence = bad idea" is still there.

The ones who want an immediate independence heavily rely on aid from the US. Which is the obvious reason why President Chen, who planned to establish a new constitution, had to change the claim into 'fix' when the US objected to it.