N.Korea: Japan Sanctions Would Be War Declaration

[Imperial Overlord]

Well the Japanese education system still completely white washes what they did in WWII and their right wingers say outrageous stuff about it. As an example, the Japanese historians who acknowledge that there was a Rape of Nanking have battled for years to try to get it included in any history book and it always gets watered down. Ditto for other incidents. So there are still a lot of hard feelings.

[dragon]

I showed the article to a couple of japanese defense force observers here at the NATO base I am at. They got a good laugh out of it and made a comment that while they can't attack NK first they can and would strike back if they were hit first. They also said they wouldn't go after the NK people or military but their leaders.

[Sea Skimmer]

So they still condemn the Japanese for their actions in WWII?

Considering Japans efforts to wipe them from its own history, can you blame them for that?

Despite the radical change in thinking that the population has undergone. I assume that the SK's wouldn't actually want Japan's help?

If North Korea was pounding down the door they might want it. But that isn't a risk now and won't be one in the future. In any likely war all they'd want is US forces to be able to use bases in Japan, which would certainly happen. Japanses ground forces couldn't respond in time to be much help, and there air to ground and naval land attack capabilities are pretty limited. Though they might provide seom ASW support, even if they aren't formally involved in the war.

[Aaron]

Considering Japans efforts to wipe them from its own history, can you blame them for that?

No but there comes a point where you have to let things go. And that means that the Japanese need to own up to their actions as well.

[frigidmagi]

While I can understand the dislike of Japan, I find it grimly amusing that the South Koreans are way more forgivning of N Korea, despite it still being a threat.

[Rogue 9]

I expect, sooner or later, they'll find one - what I can't figure out is what they expect to gain from it. Then again, their leader isn't exactly dealing with a full deck, is he?

He's got littlemans' syndrome.

But lets face it, if anything happends to Japan, the whole world will glass NK.

IIRC the USA is still responsible for Japan's defense. Any military action by NK will result in the desrtuction of NK by the US and the JSDF.

The United States is still responsible to use any and all force necessary to defend Japan, in return for Japan not maintaining an army or navy. The Self-Defense Forces are named that because of this stipulation of the treaty, and are Constitutionally forbidden from participating in offensive action for the same reason.

[Rogue 9]

He's got littlemans' syndrome.

But lets face it, if anything happends to Japan, the whole world will glass NK.

IIRC the USA is still responsible for Japan's defense. Any military action by NK will result in the desrtuction of NK by the US and the JSDF.

The United States is still responsible to use any and all force necessary to defend Japan, in return for Japan not maintaining an army or navy. The Self-Defense Forces are named that because of this stipulation of the treaty, and are Constitutionally forbidden from participating in offensive action for the same reason.

Edit: And it's the sweetest deal we could possibly have given them. A fully industrialized economy with no need to maintain a military and all it's defensive needs taken care of by another, more powerful nation? It's a large reason why they're an economic powerhouse, which in turn is the reason why the DRPK sees sanctions from them as such a threat.

[kheegster]

While I can understand the dislike of Japan, I find it grimly amusing that the South Koreans are way more forgivning of N Korea, despite it still being a threat.

Because despite all, not that long ago they were the same country, with a common experience of Japanese occupation.

[frigidmagi]

Because despite all, not that long ago they were the same country, with a common experience of Japanese occupation.

And so they ignore little things like 10,000 guns pointed at their capital and the invasion...

[HemlockGrey]

And so they ignore little things like 10,000 guns pointed at their capital and the invasion...

It's a cliche, but old hatreds die hard, and the subtly ingrained Japanese racism and near-total refusal to acknowledge the fact that they went fucking crazy during the first half of the 20th century has done nothing to help it. I mean, just look at all the Southerners who still hate Sherman for curbstomping the Confederacy.

[Sea Skimmer]

And so they ignore little things like 10,000 guns pointed at their capital and the invasion...

Only about 600 (big 170mm weapons built specifically for the purpose) North Korean guns, plus a similar number of mulitpul rocket launchers (not counting heavier FROG and SCUD missiles) can hit the capital. 10,000 is more like the total number the North Koreans have on the entire front. And most far fall short of Soeul. Thouhg they can hit other towns and very minor cities closer to the boarder.

Anyway, Japan has little ability to affect that siutation. Its airforce has very few guidged ground attack weapons (as they are offenseive weapons) though it did recently buy some JDAM's, and its fighter bombers don't have the range of inflight refueling support to fly very many missions over the North. Its Army meanwhile would simply take too long to deploy, the sealift and escorts would be used for other things. And anyway I think Japan just wouldn't want to, except perhapes some support rear area units to help the UN.

[frigidmagi]

It's a cliche, but old hatreds die hard, and the subtly ingrained Japanese racism and near-total refusal to acknowledge the fact that they went fucking crazy during the first half of the 20th century has done nothing to help it. I mean, just look at all the Southerners who still hate Sherman for curbstomping the Confederacy.

Good Point. I remain however grimly amused by it.

[Justforfun000]

Part of the problem here is that Bush really stirred the pot by declaring them a member of the "axis of evil". This put them on the immediate defense against the States. How can you blame them? Kim Jong Il is a paranoid megalomaniac. Even the average person can see how this would make him react.

The real question here is did Bush do it on purpose. You would likely think yes, and the only good reason for this would be to destabilize the country by making them lash their tail. I think he wants them to make a move so he can go in and justifiably take over the country.

He has to be OH so delicate however as China would be the biggest obstacle to this. But doing it in a way that makes them look like a loose cannon and potentially dangerous to US allies, especially ones with Nuclear treaties, makes it very easy to say "Hey, we have no choice."

It's fairly sensible, albeit not particularly subtle. But you still can't directly blame the States either if North Korea DOES act militarily. It's the stupidest thing they could do, but well, we're not talking about a very bright regime, are we?

There is however a possibility that Bush simply threw in that axis of evil quote on the spur of the moment , and may have been chastised by his aides since. Still, I find this highly improbably. Presidents rarely make speeches on the fly. It's far too important to be ultra careful what you say, and there is no doubt that his words had a massive impact on the country's present behaviour.

In relation to this, who has an opinion on China? I haven't REALLY followed the relations aspect that closely between them and North Korea these days, or even the States for that matter. How would toppling the regime in North Korea affect them?

Are China and the States friends, or cool trading partners? What's the opinions out there...

[Chardok]

/ignore North Korea

/chuckle

/em rude

/sleep

[Broomstick]

As others have said, the deal cut at the end of WWII is that Japan would maintain only a small "self-defense force" and in return the US would defend Japan with US forces should Japan ever be attacked. Although I have no doubt that the Japanese self-defense force would acquit itself with all the ruthlessness and self-sacrifice that Japanese warriors have been known for over the ages. If you don't completely smash them flat on the first blow their response is going to be nasty.

Anyhow, war with Japan is automatically war with the United States. This probably has a lot to do with why no one has fucked with Japan these last 60 years or so. You'd have to be completely insane to do that. Might be why both the USSR and China pretty much left Japan alone during the Cold War?

I'm sure the Japanese weren't thrilled with the deal at first, but they didn't have a choice - the US owned their asses after the 1945 unconditional surrender. The US occupation isn't remembered very fondly, it wasn't a fun time for the Japanese, although these days many folks concede that Japan still came out pretty good in the end - there are worse folks than the US to occupy your country, the new constitution reduces the likelihood of some of the crappier stuff from the 1890-1940 era from reoccuring, we did give them back their country after about 7 years, and not having to maintain a full military has, as others have pointed out, greatly benefited Japan by allowing them to put those resources into other areas of their economy. Now the Japanese want to keep this arrangement that was once forced upon them because they've benefited greatly from it.

Another factor to consider is that the Korean war never ended - a fact often forgotten this side of the Pacific, but not forgotten by the Koreans. We stopped shooting because of a cease-fire that is now 50 years old, but no, the war never ended. How long can this state of affairs continue? Damnifino - I'm not that much of a military historian to know if there's precedent, nor do I fancy myself enough of an armchair general to make a decent speculation in this case.

I agree - N. Korea is probably looking for an excuse to end the current talks. But they are also quite a provacative bunch. I keep trying to think what they might gain from this.

Certainly, protraying America as the Great Evil is not limited to N. Korea - Iran has gotten some great mileage out of it, as just one example. Having an eternal enemy does help prop up a military and a totalitarian government. Fine. But that's internal stuff, it doesn't require Kim Batshit to actually go over to the grizzly bear and poke it with a sharp pointy stick.

So... what is he doing? Does he really want a shooting war? Why? If he bombs, say, Tokyo, not only will the US show up over his house within a few hours at most, the Japanese will be so pissed off they just might swim the strait en masse and beat the US to Pongyang. North Korea would disappear off the map. While China will protest in many instances, if Kim Batshit is so foolish as to nuke Japan I think the Chinese will simply abandon him to hang in the breeze - madmen with nukes is bad enough, madmen willing to USE nukes are too dangerous to be allowed to exist - like rabid dogs, you must kill them for the safety of everyone else.

Or maybe he's the sort who figures if he's going to die, so should everyone else?

Or maybe he's crazy enough to think he can take on major military powers and win?

I don't understand it - and I'm not even sure I want to understand that sort of mind. I sincerely hope that there are folks in the various governments concerned who have considered the problem and have contingency plans to deal with him.

[Broomstick]

Part of the problem here is that Bush really stirred the pot by declaring them a member of the "axis of evil". This put them on the immediate defense against the States. How can you blame them? Kim Jong Il is a paranoid megalomaniac. Even the average person can see how this would make him react.

We've been in a state of war with Korea for over fifty years. Granted, most of that has been a cease fire, but technically we're still in a state of war. The problem of North Korea has been around for awhile. Of course if Bush was discussing an "axis of evil" he'd throw them in, wise decision or not.

(Very poor choice of words, I thought - trying to harken back to the days of WWII perhaps, but the current so-called "axis of evil" are in no ways allies or cooperative the way the Germans, Italians, and Japanese were - it's a horribly inappropriate reference to history)

The real question here is did Bush do it on purpose.

Absolutely he did.

You would likely think yes, and the only good reason for this would be to destabilize the country by making them lash their tail. I think he wants them to make a move so he can go in and justifiably take over the country.

Yes, I believe that was the motive for throwing them into the pot, as it were. It may have originated with the Neocon Hawks, but Bush must have approved to some degree.

There is however a possibility that Bush simply threw in that axis of evil quote on the spur of the moment , and may have been chastised by his aides since. Still, I find this highly improbably. Presidents rarely make speeches on the fly.

Especially this one - no, his speeches are well-rehearsed in advance. Any time he stands in front of a camera and speaks with any eloquence at all you know he's rehearsed and you can be sure what he's saying has been vetted beforehand. That was NOT an "off the cuff" remark, it was delibrate.

In relation to this, who has an opinion on China? I haven't REALLY followed the relations aspect that closely between them and North Korea these days, or even the States for that matter. How would toppling the regime in North Korea affect them?

It might be a relief to some... they wouldn't like it, of course, but a present you have an unstable situation maintained by a fragile ceasefire with the world's remaining superpower involved, and on their doorstep. Not only that, they have a crazy guy with nuclear weapons on their doorstep, in the middle of said instability. I think a LOT of people would like a much more stable situation there, even if that means removing the present regime. Whether they can say that in public is a different story.

Are China and the States friends, or cool trading partners? What's the opinions out there...

We're not friends and we're not allies. We are, however, willing to Give Peace a Chance. There are mutally beneficial features to being trading partners, even if our governments dont' have a lot of mutal affection, and by trading we're hoping to give yet one more incentive to disagree only in agreeable ways. The theory is you are less likely to go to war with those you do business with. Neither side wants a war - neither side would win, in the end, and the carnage would be horrific. The Chinese leadership, you see, is mostly sane, unlike in N. Korea.

[Justforfun000]

Interesting. Thanks for the analysis...That makes some interesting points.

You're absolutely right. The biggest advantage the world has these days is the Global trading community. Since communication and commodities can be so easily transmitted, it's really changed the entire mindset of most countries. Other than religiously dominated countries, the simply nutso ones like North Korea are diminishing.

At least all the big guns are on the same team in essence.

With Russia though, I'm still a bit confused about their power. They are considered a fallen superpower, true, but is that really only a superficial designation?

Militarily, are they no longer a serious threat? I mean realistically, if for SOME reason the States and them got into a scuffle, could they still start Nuclear winter and blow the shit out of most of the States? If they can, then they really are in my mind STILL a superpower. If I remember correctly no other country has that ability.....Even China can't fully reach the States.

So the interesting question here is what does Russia feel about North Korea and China? Any potential helps or hindrances there?

Any chance of China finally giving up communism by gradually going capitalist?

I would love to take a world affairs course about countries and their diplomatic stances between each other if they had such a thing...

[CJvR]

Any chance of China finally giving up communism by gradually going capitalist?

They did that long ago, China today is more of ideologicaly neutral collective dictatorship. The only communism remaining is the rethoric and the huge state owned heavy industry complexes that are to vast to close and to unprofitable to sell. The poor Chinese peasant, the great hero of the revolution, still have a few uses - cannon fodder in the PLA or shoe polisher at the party convention.

[Sea Skimmer]

Part of the problem here is that Bush really stirred the pot by declaring them a member of the "axis of evil". This put them on the immediate defense against the States. How can you blame them? Kim Jong Il is a paranoid megalomaniac. Even the average person can see how this would make him react.

You seem to be working from the absurdly flawed basis that North Korea wasn't ruled and controlled by militant paranoia, starting from about a half century before Bush even took office. It simply does not matter what the rest of the world says or does, North Korea will just act like North Korea. When you compare North Koreas staple propaganda statements, like calling everything a declaration of war, to Bush's one liner axis of evil comment, its pretty blatantly clear who the problem is.