Tsunamis in the Indian Ocean

[Joe]

Wikipedia has an animated gif by way of NOAA displaying the tsunami's propagation.

Christ that is some nasty shit.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Three thousand dead and thirty thousand feared missing in Nicobars.

Preliminary death toll thought to be 4,000 for Nicobars not including Car Nicobar where it is "quite high".

Five Thousand believed dead in Andamans and Nicobars, number could be much higher

The worst quotes are from the last article, and save sensationalism there is little alternative explanation except for the worst one:

"It is now confirmed that more than 3,000 persons have been killed in Sunday morning's disaster," IGP Andaman and Nicobar S B Deol said adding "another 2,000 people are missing and are believed to have died." He also apprehended the casualty figure might go up as the extent of damage in a number of inhabited islands in the Nancowry group near the Great Nicobar island were yet to be ascertained.

And:

According to him the worst hit were the Car Nicobar and Nancowry islands and the majority of those missing were from Nancowry, located very near to the epicentre of the earthquake and bore the brunt of the Tsunami. The islands, with a combined population of 37,000, has been completely washed away.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Just did some checking. In the region since the big quake there's been 30 quakes greater than magnitude 5, 10 of which greater than mag 6, and the biggest was 7.5. Badness.

[Petrosjko]

Just did some checking. In the region since the big quake there's been 30 quakes greater than magnitude 5, 10 of which greater than mag 6, and the biggest was 7.5. Badness.

What a fucking nightmare.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Just did some checking. In the region since the big quake there's been 30 quakes greater than magnitude 5, 10 of which greater than mag 6, and the biggest was 7.5. Badness.

I am really worried about the Nicobars. They are basically directly on the fault line and the area of subduction stretched for more than 1,000km; some of the aftershocks have been located directly in that area. It isn't impossible that what that article said is literally true: A group of islands with a combined population of 37,000 may vanished beneath the sea.

[CaptainChewbacca]

It isn't impossible, but it would be extremely unlikely that the entire island would sink. In the 1964 Alaska quake some of the shoreline rose 10 meters, and its possible though more unlikely you could get similar sinking. However, what's left may not be worth saving.

[Col. Crackpot]

Just did some checking. In the region since the big quake there's been 30 quakes greater than magnitude 5, 10 of which greater than mag 6, and the biggest was 7.5. Badness.

What a fucking nightmare.

indeed. these people have nothing nowm which is why my check to the red cross has been written and goes out with tomorrow's mail.

[Joe]

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041228/D878D63G0.html

42,000. Fuck...

[Joe]

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/041228/1/3pim1.html

An earthquake that unleashed deadly tidal waves on Asia was so powerful it made the Earth wobble on its axis and permanently altered the regional map, US geophysicists said.

The 9.0-magnitude temblor that struck 250 kilometers (155 miles) southeast of Sumatra island Sunday may have moved small islands as much as 20 meters (66 feet), according to one expert.

"That earthquake has changed the map," US Geological Survey expert Ken Hudnut told AFP.

"Based on seismic modeling, some of the smaller islands off the southwest coast of Sumatra may have moved to the southwest by about 20 meters. That is a lot of slip."

The northwestern tip of the Indonesian territory of Sumatra may also have shifted to the southwest by around 36 meters (120 feet), Hudnut said.

In addition, the energy released as the two sides of the undersea fault slipped against each other made the Earth wobble on its axis, Hudnut said.

"We can detect very slight motions of the Earth and I would expect that the Earth wobbled in its orbit when the earthquake occurred due the massive amount of energy exerted and the sudden shift in mass," Hudnut said.

Another USGS research geophysicist agreed that the Earth would have got a "little jog," and that the islands off Sumatra would have been moved by the quake.

However, Stuart Sipkin, of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in Golden Colorado, said it was more likely that the islands off Sumatra had risen higher out of the sea than they had moved laterally.

"In in this case, the Indian plate dived below the Burma plate, causing uplift, so most of the motion to the islands would have been vertical, not horizontal."

The tsunamis unleashed by the fourth-biggest earthquake in a century have left at least 23,675 people dead in eight countries across Asia and as far as Somalia in East Africa.

The tsunamis wiped out entire coastal villages and pulled beach-goers out to sea.

The International Red Cross estimated that up to one million people have been displaced by the natural calamity.

[Mlenk]

An earthquake that unleashed deadly tidal waves on Asia was so powerful it made the Earth wobble on its axis and permanently altered the regional map, US geophysicists said.

God Damn!

[Spyder]

Australia has started the relief effort. NZ's also sending a Herc + 500k through the Red Cross.

[Enigma]

Would this wobble cause a temporary shift in weather patterns for the rest of the world or the planet just wobbled and nothing else?

[Spyder]

Would this wobble cause a temporary shift in weather patterns for the rest of the world or the planet just wobbled and nothing else?

I don't think so, although the plate activity that caused it may also be responsible for other effects. Exactly what I couldn't say.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Would this wobble cause a temporary shift in weather patterns for the rest of the world or the planet just wobbled and nothing else?

When they say "wobble" they mean "barely perceptible tremor". Its not like the earth moved underneath the clouds. No weather change, but the tidal wave might do some coastal stuff.

[Howedar]

Would this wobble cause a temporary shift in weather patterns for the rest of the world or the planet just wobbled and nothing else?

We're not exactly talking about a large wobble. I'll eat my hat if anything noticable ever results from it. And I don't even wear hats.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The most ominous news yet

"Accurate data is not yet here, but I estimate 21,000 to 25,000 people," Yusuf Kalla told reporters late on Monday on returning to the Sumatra island city of Medan after visiting victims in Banda Aceh, which is some 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles) northeast of Jakarta.

The official Indonesian death toll from the quake stands at 4,725.

Reports trickling in from Aceh's southwestern coast spoke of an almost complete obliteration of a shoreline that is home to an estimated one million people.

"All 17 villages on the coast are no longer there," said Teungku Zulkarnaini, the head of the southwestern Nagan Raya district.

In the first contact from the town of Meulaboh, which would have been among the first hit by the enormous tidal waves wreaked devastation across Asia, an e-mail from local police said that only 20 per cent of the town still stood.

Chief police detective Rilo Pambudi said what remained of the town was completely cut off and still being battered by surging waters. He said food was running out, there was looting and further catastrophe loomed.

"If within three to four days relief does not arrive, there will be a starvation disaster that will cause mass deaths," he said in the e-mail, released by officials in Jakarta.

"The situation in Meulaboh and its surroundings is in an emergency. Meulaboh is under an SOS code.

"The economic conditions are totally paralysed, fuel is non-existent, looting is everywhere, the number of victims are rising but they cannot be evacuated," the e-mail went on.

A reporter with the state Antara news agency who flew over the area early on Tuesday said most of the coastline between Meulaboh and Banda Aceh was still under water and mud with few signs of survivors among demolished buildings.

"There are no longer any signs of life along 240 kilometres. All that is left from houses and offices are only foundations," he said.

The airforce encountered difficulties in dropping aid to victims because most of the area was under water or thick mud, relief taskforce leader Lieutenant Colonel Deri Pemba said, according to Antara.

[fgalkin]

Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit. :shock:

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

Depending on how you interpret some of those statements, we could indeed be talking about one of the top killers in human history here. Presumably the majority of people survived on that coast, but even if they did, it is clear that they are not getting any food from the government or relief organizations and that there is no vegetation in the area left to provide food, no boats left to go out to sea to fish for food, etc. There is a breakdown in social order happening, if that police chief's report is correct, and everyone is out fending for themselves in a situation which can only grow worse.

Considering there are already armed paramilitary groups in the field in that area, in addition to an army famed for indiscipline, for instance on Timor, the situation is not good at all. We know that not less than three hectares have been set aside near Banda Aceh's international airport for mass graves, and that close to four thousand bodies have been buried already and yet there are still stories of corpses rotting in the open sun and piled in the streets. Assuming only one corpse is buried for every two meters of surface area that is enough room for 15,000 corpses.

It is not impossible that the figure of "21,000 - 25,000" refers only to the city of Banda Aceh itself. That would imply a catastrophe of unimaginable scale in Aceh province as a whole, as that is up to one-sixth of the population of Banda Aceh. If that figure is from Banda Aceh alone than a conservative reading would suggest that there might be as many as 150,000 fatalities on the western coast of Sumatra. This is not impossible if the descriptions of the scale of the destruction are correct. Eighty percent of structures were destroyed in one city, and the number reported on flyovers of nearby regions is higher than that--100%.

[CJvR]

I doubt either the Andaman or Nicobar arcipellagos have lost any of their islands to the sea, they are IIRC on the Burmese side of the faultline. However the Tsunami would have struck them with it's full strenght and not the watered down version that hit Thailand and Sri Lanka. I don't even want to think about what the eventual numbers will be from those islands.

Khao Lat apperars to be ground zero in Thailand, a shore resort where a few reinforced hotells are all that remains standing and the casualties is estimated to a thousand - 80% tourists.

To make matters even worse northern Sri Lanka and Sumatra are basicaly war zones and in Sri Lanka the rebs and goverment wont even agree on distribution of disaster aid.

The Thai authorities considered issuing a tsunami warning but decided not to since the quake was "only" 8.1 and Sumatra probably would shield Thailand... and we don't wan't to disturb the tourist industry do we?

[weemadando]

The news from Indonesia is worrying. And from the sounds of things authorities in Sri Lanka are extremely concerned about exponentially larger numbers of deaths due to disease.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

5.8 2004/12/27 20:10:48 2.864 95.595 10.0 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA
5.4 2004/12/27 19:28:50 8.569 93.643 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 2004/12/27 14:46:45 12.356 92.502 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.1 2004/12/27 11:57:53 8.068 92.285 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 2004/12/27 10:46:46 13.585 93.074 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.2 2004/12/27 10:46:36 13.632 93.102 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.9 2004/12/27 10:05:00 4.785 95.115 10.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.3 2004/12/27 09:39:03 5.379 94.706 10.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.4 2004/12/27 06:59:12 3.010 95.538 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.0 2004/12/27 05:10:50 5.980 93.216 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
6.1 2004/12/27 00:49:27 12.978 92.449 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.0 2004/12/27 00:32:13 5.502 94.465 10.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.2 2004/12/26 19:19:53 2.770 94.158 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.6 2004/12/26 19:03:47 4.065 94.197 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.6 2004/12/26 15:12:21 6.698 93.017 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.7 2004/12/26 15:06:33 3.703 94.021 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.9 2004/12/26 14:48:42 13.602 92.873 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.9 2004/12/26 13:56:37 2.792 94.458 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.5 2004/12/26 12:11:56 11.591 92.447 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.4 2004/12/26 12:09:41 12.210 92.618 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.3 2004/12/26 11:05:01 13.542 92.877 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.2 2004/12/26 10:19:30 13.455 92.791 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.5 2004/12/26 10:18:13 8.950 93.730 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.5 2004/12/26 09:20:01 8.867 92.382 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 2004/12/26 07:38:25 13.119 93.051 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.7 2004/12/26 07:07:10 10.336 93.756 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.7 2004/12/26 06:21:58 10.623 92.323 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
7.5 2004/12/26 04:21:25 6.891 92.891 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
6.1 2004/12/26 03:08:42 13.808 92.974 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.9 2004/12/26 02:59:12 3.177 94.259 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
6.0 2004/12/26 02:51:59 12.511 92.592 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 2004/12/26 02:36:06 12.139 93.011 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 2004/12/26 02:34:50 4.104 94.184 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5.9 2004/12/26 02:22:01 8.813 92.537 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 2004/12/26 02:15:57 12.354 92.531 10.0 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
5.8 2004/12/26 01:48:46 5.381 94.441 10.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.2 2004/12/26 01:21:18 6.372 93.363 10.0 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
9.0 2004/12/26 00:58:50 3.244 95.825 10.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

All times are UTC. Magnitude is the first digit figure. The full list is available here, I just edited it to remove the non-Bay of Bengal area earthquakes, everything else is the same. As you can see, major earthquakes continue in the aftermath of the initial quake, and may continue for weeks to come. The Nicobars suffered a major quake on the 26th of 7.5 magnitude which would be considered serious under any other circumstance. This is part of why the rescue efforts are being hampered--effectively, more damage is still being inflicted even as we speak.

[CJvR]

That's a whole lot of shaking...

[CJvR]

Latest figures ~30.000 confirmed, 39.000 according to some sources.

[CJvR]

As if the disaster wasn't bad enough now the burocrats have to add their contribution to the mess.

Two Swedish doctors in Phang Nga have urgently requested to airlift badly injured Swedish patients out of the area. However Sweden haven't the capability yet and will not have it for another 6 months. Improvising an ambulance airlift shouldn't be impossible, load a few ambulances onto a some airforce transports and fly down there - however you can't use military resources like that in peacetime! No! First we need to investigate who have the medical responsibilty and then we have to investigate if the old emergency organization can be used...

The doctors on the spot is screaming for aid, NOW! The response from the burocrats is that they will investigate if it is possible to consider sending something.

[Old Plympto]

Regional tsunami, quake death toll rises to 40,000

About 40,000 people are reported dead around southern Asia and as far away as Somalia on Africa's eastern coast, most killed by massive tidal waves that smashed coastlines after a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Indonesia's coast on Sunday, followed by aftershocks in the region.

Death tolls by country:

# Sri Lanka: 18,706.

# Indonesia: About 15,000.

# India: 4,371.

# Thailand: 1,516.

# Malaysia: 65.

# Myanmar: 90.

# Maldives: 52.

# Somalia: Hundreds.

# Tanzania: 10

# Seychelles: 3.

# Bangladesh: 2.

- AP

From here

And unbelieveable: 10,000 were killed in a single town in Melauboh.