Will this be the Chineese Century?

Kamakazie Sith · Post by **Kamakazie Sith** » 2005-01-05 12:01am

Illuminatus Primus wrote:It has nothing to do with being "mean"; that's just a farcical excuse for him to try and distract attention. He did the same "my opponents' posts are invisible" act with the Pentagon funding thread.

Possibly. I think he is one of those people that just gets so focused on being insulted that he can't look past it.

Petrosjko · Post by **Petrosjko** » 2005-01-05 01:08am

Chmee, to make it around here you're going to have to get in the habit of offering substance. You don't make assertions without a basis in fact and reason that you can articulate. If you do, you will get roasted.

Furthermore, if you're wrong just concede the point and move on. I'm starting to wonder if you can let go of a point you've decided to defend.

This isn't poker, and your bluffs will be called every time here.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2005-01-05 09:30pm

Holy crap, man! Answer some of the points!

kheegster · Post by **kheegster** » 2005-01-05 11:00pm

This really does look like HoS material from the 2nd page onwards...

Chmee · Post by **Chmee** » 2005-01-05 11:04pm

kheegan wrote:This really does look like HoS material from the 2nd page onwards...

I PM'd Blkbrry yesterday to apologize for helping hose the thread, and I'm very done with it.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2005-01-06 01:30am

We'll write that one up as a big CONCESSION ACCEPTED, bitch.

Stofsk · Post by **Stofsk** » 2005-01-06 02:03am

Can discussion resume on topic now?

There are some predictions that China's economy will become number one in a few decades time; is this cause for worry or will it cancel out America's current position as sole-superpower? Will India rise as another superpower? Are we going to see a return to multi-polarity, or bi-polarity, in international relations?

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2005-01-06 02:12am

Chmee wrote:I PM'd Blkbrry yesterday to apologize for helping hose the thread, and I'm very done with it.

Pussy.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2005-01-06 02:12am

It will not be the hour of China until they shape up a bit and fix the crippling poverty among the vast majority of their population, among other problems.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2005-01-06 02:24am

Stofsk wrote:Can discussion resume on topic now?

There are some predictions that China's economy will become number one in a few decades time; is this cause for worry or will it cancel out America's current position as sole-superpower? Will India rise as another superpower? Are we going to see a return to multi-polarity, or bi-polarity, in international relations?

I think multi-polar with India, China, and maybe even the EU rising up to challenge the US. Other possibilities are the CIS and Russia if they ever get their shit together. It may be that waking up and realizing we have equals all of a sudden may kick America's butt into gear.

Post by **Coyote** » 2005-01-06 08:34am

We'll see a lot of multi-polar economic forces emerge, especially if India jumps more on the free market bandwagon. I just wonder if China will see them as a regional rival in yet another realm of endeavor, and begin a sort of Cold War standoff with them. They've never played well together.

Guardsman Bass · Post by **Guardsman Bass** » 2005-01-06 02:32pm

HemlockGrey wrote:It will not be the hour of China until they shape up a bit and fix the crippling poverty among the vast majority of their population, among other problems.

In the meantime, though, if the good things go as they have(aka economic growth), they will be a major economic power and importer even if half the population lives in poverty in the countryside. You'd still have 500 million people reasonably okay.

Illuminatus Primus · Post by **Illuminatus Primus** » 2005-01-06 05:45pm

Chmee wrote:
kheegan wrote:This really does look like HoS material from the 2nd page onwards...
I PM'd Blkbrry yesterday to apologize for helping hose the thread, and I'm very done with it.

Coward.

Veramocor · Post by **Veramocor** » 2005-01-06 06:21pm

GDP China: 6.449 Trillion 9% annual growth rate
GDP USA: 10.99 Trillion (lets say a generous 4%)

Source: CIA factbook

Assuming China maintains 9% and no recessions for either country they would have a GDP higher than us in 10.5 years.

The real question is can they sustain 9-10% growth.

HemlockGrey wrote:It will not be the hour of China until they shape up a bit and fix the crippling poverty among the vast majority of their population, among other problems.

And to fix this they will have to raise wages.

Don't forget their horrible environmental problems. They will eventually need to spend money on this also.

Both of these action items will increase costs and should slow that amazing 10% growth rate down.

Also China has their currency pegged to the dollar eventually they'll have to let this float, this would slow down their economy also.

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2005-01-06 06:28pm

Veramocor wrote:GDP China: 6.449 Trillion 9% annual growth rate
GDP USA: 10.99 Trillion (lets say a generous 4%)

Actually, you need to account for differences in population.

Percapita GDP for China: $6449
US: $31400

In other words, the average US worker is almost 4.9 times more productive than the average Chinese worker. They'll need much much more than ten years to seriously compete with the US, barring any major catastrophies for either side.

tharkûn · Post by **tharkûn** » 2005-01-06 07:06pm

The real question is can they sustain 9-10% growth.

No.

The reason they are growing so fast is because their wages are crap and half the friggen country still lives in the dark ages. When you move from BS collective agrarianism to modern foreign financed industrialization you get very high, though completely unsustainible, growth rates.

Eventually some other country full of poor people will be a better business venture and all the cheap crap the world loves to buy will be manufactured there.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2005-01-07 02:25am

Let's not forget the deliciously unstable parts of Muslim-dominated western China.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2005-01-07 04:07am

And Tibet!

Crown · Post by **Crown** » 2005-01-07 07:15am

Chmee wrote:
Admiral Valdemar wrote:China will have a big impact on society though. The recent surge in resource gathering already affects oil prices and more besides.
They're sucking up raw materials of every kind ... Australia is practically their private ore hopper these days ....

And for what it's worth, the Greek economy is recieving more money from its industry sector than its service sector for the first time in a long time (Greek shipping companies are basically all employed for China, hauling raw materials for it). And the Greek merchan marine is fucking huge!