The Big One

[Howedar]

You mean 13.

[Mopeyennuui]

See, this is why I in part loathe historical fiction. Nothing fun and nothing too extreme.

I would hardly call erasing 80 percent of the population of a modern industrial country "not to extreme". The point of TBO and its sequels was to take a realistic look at what a nuclear strike on Germany would have been like and what its consequences woul have been. There were several reasons why I wrote it.

One was a reaction against the "Erwin Rommel and Nazi Uberweapons Rule" school of alternate history. This posits that a articular superweapon or group of superweapons in German hands leads the Nazis to victory. TBO looks at what German weapons were likely to be around by 1947, compares them to what the US was likely to have and then illustrates the result. A nuclear sledgehammer obliterates Germany. People go on for ever about wonderful German aircraft etc but the truth is that nothing they had on the drawing board that could be in service within a realistic timeframe could stop a B-36. It took ten years of intensive effort by the US and Russia (both of whom knew what a B-36 could and could not do) to devise such a defense.

Another was a reaction against the "glorious dawn" alt-hist. You know the thing. If only X had done Y, then paradise would result. Life doesn't work that way. The conclusions to the TBO stories are all messy and ambiguous. Some problems get solved, usually the solutions create worse ones.

However, the major reason why I wrote TBO was a very strong desire to show people what the results of a nuclear attack were likely to be. In recent years, certain terminally bewildered people have been calling for the return of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) as US policy rather than investing in missile defense. Now, that's absurd on its face because MAD was NEVER US government policy (the term was devised to explain the result of certain policies). US policy was to maintain a secure and effective deterrent against nuclear attack. What the Deterrence policy lacked was a fall-back. As my mentor in these things used to ask "What Happens When Deterrence Fails" (Herman could speak in capitals).

However, its very clear that people, especially those who oppose building defenses against nuclear attack, do not understand is what a nuclear attack will probably be like , what it will do and how appalling the consequences are likely to become. (On another board, I had to deal with a 16 year old who believed nuclear attacks were nothing to worry about since people could get power by putting their cars up on blocks and running the engines. Its got worse in recent years because people think they can do a google on a subject, find a few quotes or out-of-context documents and think they constitute an argument. Unfortunately, in addition to finding and reproducing documents, its necessary to understand what they are saying and why. That takes expertise. For example, a lot of material comes from budget debates and doesn't represent a technical argument to the informed but a pitch by one set of advocates to get money from legislators with no specific expertise ina subject at the expense of other advocates. Others represent Aunt Sally arguments. Posit a possible (perhaps not even plausible) technical problem, see what the results are when the experts get to work on it and what we can learn from the replies. I actually worked on one like that - somebody "suggested" spinning the missiles. That was actually from Martin Corp - who had actually designed an ICBM. They knew it coudln't be done - but we looked at what it would involve and how it would work and we learned a lot about how futile even trying would be).

TBO was written to show what "Assured Destruction" actually involves. That is why TBO is so terribly relentless - the destruction of Germany is assured from the moment the first B-36 lifts off. That is also why the description of the destruction of Germany is so graphic. That's why the barmaid Hilda was burned alive - I deliberately created a warm, sympathetic and likable character and then gave her a horrible agonizing death - one that almost 60 million Germans would share. There's a escalating sequence - one person dies dreadfully, then a whole town, then a whole country - and nothing anybody can do can stop it happening.

That's what "Assured Destruction" means.

I give in.

And now I dont' wanna try that Culture/TBO slashfic. Gah. . .

[Stuart]

While we're on the subject, and I'm thoughly assured that Vegas is a target, is nuclear ordnance truly the end all be all of containment solutions for disease as it appears to be in movies and what not?

Skimmer's right; it is a solution but it has to be done right and done quickly. It would require the use of several very large devices airburst over the city in question with the thermal effect patterns calculated to leave no windows. The temperature has to be above [a certain specific level] over the whole area that is being cauterized.

There are a lot of practical problems with this idea though. For example, the time constraints on the laydowns are very specific; its critical to cauterize an area before the biological warfare agent moves outside that area. The problem is that the latest time (the gap between infection with the agent and the symptoms of the infection becoming apparent) often exceeds the time bracket needed to stop the spread. So, the epidemic could already be out of control before the laydowns take place. Add in political problems (You want me to order a nuclear strike on WHERE) and its unlikely the action could be taken in time.

Nevertheless, its an evantuality that has been evaluated, both in @ and in TBO.

I give in. And now I dont' wanna try that Culture/TBO slashfic.

On the other hand, If you think you have got a good idea for a TBOverse novel or short story, let me know. I'll read the text carefully to make sure it fits in, but if it does, you're welcome to join in. A couple of people have already taken aspects of the TBOverse world and built on them (Russia in the early 1950s and Saigon in the mid-1980s) for stories of their own and the resulting world is all the better for that. All I ask is that people run each part by me first so I can make sure it fits in with the overall direction of the grand storyline.

[Jadeite]

In my business, the "graduation exercise" for targeteering is the candidate is required to targeteer a strike on his own home town. It puts things into context.

I can think of one easy target in my town. The former Vitro building
a few miles from me. Back during the 80s, Vitro made the guidance
system IIRC for the Trident missile, and now BAE occupies the building...

Yeah, same here. Indianapolis International Airport is just a few miles away.

EDIT: Thought of some more targets. There's the administration building for the PSI power company, several highways running through this town, and Indianapolis is a short trip away, and it'd be as good as gone.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Skimmer's right; it is a solution but it has to be done right and done quickly. It would require the use of several very large devices airburst over the city in question with the thermal effect patterns calculated to leave no windows. The temperature has to be above [a certain specific level] over the whole area that is being cauterized.

There are a lot of practical problems with this idea though. For example, the time constraints on the laydowns are very specific; its critical to cauterize an area before the biological warfare agent moves outside that area. The problem is that the latest time (the gap between infection with the agent and the symptoms of the infection becoming apparent) often exceeds the time bracket needed to stop the spread. So, the epidemic could already be out of control before the laydowns take place. Add in political problems (You want me to order a nuclear strike on WHERE) and its unlikely the action could be taken in time.

Nevertheless, its an evantuality that has been evaluated, both in @ and in TBO.

Of course, I assume this can vary somewhat. For example, if the contagion were of a specific nature--something that couldn't be easily spread beyond its human hosts for example, except by perhaps direct physical contact--wouldn't it be viable to start a firestorm in the ring of outlying suburbs (which should be fairly vulnerable to one due to their construction IIRC), thereby creating a "ring of death" around the city which effectively blocks egress from the inner urban core?

[Illuminatus Primus]

I give in.

And now I dont' wanna try that Culture/TBO slashfic. Gah. . .

You realize a mod warned you, right?

[Mopeyennuui]

I give in.

And now I dont' wanna try that Culture/TBO slashfic. Gah. . .

You realize a mod warned you, right?

Just take the apology. Please?

[Sea Skimmer]

Of course, I assume this can vary somewhat. For example, if the contagion were of a specific nature--something that couldn't be easily spread beyond its human hosts for example, except by perhaps direct physical contact--wouldn't it be viable to start a firestorm in the ring of outlying suburbs (which should be fairly vulnerable to one due to their construction IIRC), thereby creating a "ring of death" around the city which effectively blocks egress from the inner urban core?

It's not easy to start a deliberate firestorm even with nuclear weapons and American house construction. But anyway, it wouldn't be a sure thing by a long shot, espically if any rivers pass through the area, that'd you trap everyone. And if the disease is so bad that nuclear strikes or mass firestorms are an acceptable option then we really can't hold back. Plus, once you have your ring of flaming death, which isn't going to last that long, you've still got a city full of the disease, and if your going to nuke it anyway then why bother with the ring of fire in the first place?

[lukexcom]

High Frontier 14

[technomage]

Hey now, not all American houses are poorly constructed.

I'll admit, a lot of construction companies these days like to save on money by using inferior or smaller materials (2x4 instead of 2x6, 2x6 in basement instead of concrete), but some companies still do it right.

You just need to know what to look for. Fortunately, it's not something I'll ever worry about. I live in an apartment because I absolutely hate yardwork.

[aerius]

Hey now, not all American houses are poorly constructed.

I'll admit, a lot of construction companies these days like to save on money by using inferior or smaller materials (2x4 instead of 2x6, 2x6 in basement instead of concrete), but some companies still do it right.

True, but they're still wood frame houses, as is pretty much all new houses being built these days. They might have a nice brick or stone facing but the load is still carried by the wooden toothpicks. The homes in my neighbourhood, built around 35-40 years ago, are made of 8-12" thick reinforced concrete with a layer of brick on the outside to make them look pretty, there's no wood to be found in the walls.

We also have a garage that was built about 20 years ago, wood frame, brick facing, concrete cinderblock foundation. If I take a large hammer and hit the walls on the garage, I can hear and feel the entire wall vibrating, and it'll reverberate for some time after the hit. Do it to my house and it's like hitting a solid 20 ton slab of concrete, nothing, no ringing, no vibrations, it's just dead solid.

[darthdavid]

My house is about oh 180 years old. It's been constantly reonovated (most recent major one a few years ago) but it's still an old house underneath. Now I don't know wheather to take comfort in that or not. On one hand it's very solidly built but on the other It's made of wood and parts have had over a hundred years to weaken up. Plus it would probably burn like a match head if a nuke was set off anywhere near it and the siding is vinal(sp?) so it wouldn't even have anything strong to protect it externally...

[MKSheppard]

True, but they're still wood frame houses, as is pretty much all new houses being built these days. They might have a nice brick or stone facing but the load is still carried by the wooden toothpicks.

The exterior facing keeps the thermal pulse from burning your house
down you realize

[aerius]

The exterior facing keeps the thermal pulse from burning your house
down you realize

True, but I don't think it's going to help much when it comes to resisting blast damage.

[Stuart]

Hey now, not all American houses are poorly constructed. (snip) I live in an apartment because I absolutely hate yardwork.

I live in a condo for the same reason. The trouble is that the overwhelming majority of American houses (especially recent ones) are frame construction. From a damage assessment point of view, that's tantamount to being self-destructive. For good, honest solidity, there's nothing like bricks and mortar. Last time I was in the UK (a good many years ago now), all house construction there was bricks and mortar, Frame houses were unknown.

The exterior facing keeps the thermal pulse from burning your house down you realize

It might. It depends on how expensive it is. The top of the line cladding is high gloss and its loaded with fire retardent. Subject that to a nuclear flash (particularly on the outer edges of the damage area where the power of the device is largely spent) and it'll char but protect the wood underneath. At the other end of the scale, the "super-economy this-week-only special-offer" level had a surface finish that rapidly matts due to scratching and abrasion (and UV plus a few other things) , the plastic itself is cheap and its fire retardent content is minimal or non-existant. Hit that with a nuclear flash and it will burn and take the rest of the house down with it. Like everything else I suppose, one gets what one pays for.

True, but I don't think it's going to help much when it comes to resisting blast damage.

True, but blast without fire is survivable given a little preperation. If somebody is in an area where survival is possible, then small increments of protection result in major increments in their chance of survival (and major increments in their condition once they have survived the initial laydown). Of all the nuclear effects, the biggest killer is fire (used here to include both flash-burns from the thermal pulse of the initiation and secodnary fires caused by that pulse). The majority of those killed by a nuclear event are burned to death. Now, as I said, close in it makes little difference, the sheer power of the thermal pulse overwhelms any posisble defense but on the outskirts of the event, that isn't true. If the people there can stop the thermal pulse starting fires then they've taken a major step towards surviving. Oddly, the device itself can be helpful here; if the fires haven't taken hold, the blast wave literally blows them out.

[MKSheppard]

It might. It depends on how expensive it is. The top of the line cladding is high gloss and its loaded with fire retardent. Subject that to a nuclear flash (particularly on the outer edges of the damage area where the power of the device is largely spent) and it'll char but protect the wood underneath. At the other end of the scale, the "super-economy this-week-only special-offer" level had a surface finish that rapidly matts due to scratching and abrasion (and UV plus a few other things) , the plastic itself is cheap and its fire retardent content is minimal or non-existant. Hit that with a nuclear flash and it will burn and take the rest of the house down with it. Like everything else I suppose, one gets what one pays for.

Hmm, I was referring more to the stone and brickwork cladding not the
vinyl siding on a lot of american houses, because in my subdivision, about
50-60% of the exterior walls are clad in brickwork, with the rest being vinyl
or painted wood. It seems that only the really cheap houses in my area are
100% clad in Vinyl. Still, that's an interesting point. Would applying a regular
coat of white paint at regular intervals allow even a cheap vinyl siding
to resist the pulse more?

[Stuart]

Hmm, I was referring more to the stone and brickwork cladding not the vinyl siding on a lot of american houses, because in my subdivision, about 50-60% of the exterior walls are clad in brickwork, with the rest being vinyl or painted wood. It seems that only the really cheap houses in my area are 100% clad in Vinyl. Still, that's an interesting point. Would applying a regular coat of white paint at regular intervals allow even a cheap vinyl siding to resist the pulse more?

Sorry, misunderstanding there. Yes, brick and stone cladding is a very good way of defeating the thermal pulse. They aren't as good as a genuine, properly built self-supporting brick wall since cladding will disintegrate with the impact of the blast wave and contribute to the wave of wreckage and debris at the wave front. But, given the relative danger of fire and blast its a trade-off worth making.

If somebody has installed the cheap, shoddy vinyl siding, painting it annually will help (as will washing it down frequently and doing all the other things the maintenance books suggest). By the time one pays for all that, better to have installed the good stuff to start with. It lasts much longer, looks better and is a lot safer (cheap vinyl cladding has been implicated in turning a number of household fires into disasters).

[Crayz9000]

I'd imagine that, here in the Southwest at least, the fire-resistant houses that cities have been urging people to build would be more effective than most houses elsewhere in America.

By fireproofed, I mean that the houses are clad in stucco (basically several layers of concrete (mixed with sand) to the walls with wire mesh; the outermost layer has dye mixed in to make it look good), and the roofs are terracotta tiles.

Most of the houses built that way have sat through firestorms from the brush fires around here and didn't catch, despite being wood frames.

[Howedar]

I live in a condo for the same reason. The trouble is that the overwhelming majority of American houses (especially recent ones) are frame construction. From a damage assessment point of view, that's tantamount to being self-destructive. For good, honest solidity, there's nothing like bricks and mortar. Last time I was in the UK (a good many years ago now), all house construction there was bricks and mortar, Frame houses were unknown.

Those of us on the West Coast aren't a big fan of brick and mortar. Nuclear war is a scary possibility, but large earthquakes are an understood given. Wood frames actually do pretty well in earthquakes, provided the frame is held to the foundation (and all new ones are).

[MKSheppard]

Question,

When do the US policy makers (read, the Business) learn that the
Caliphate was going to refuse their demands and accept nuclear
annihilation until Model took matters into his own hands?

And would this have an effect on the Policy Makers of the US, in that
they now would know that the Caliphate is full of nutcases who are
irrational and insane?

Would this have a slight thawing effect on US/Chipanese relations as
both sides would now realize that the Caliphate is full of insane nutters
and it's in both sides best interests to marginalize and keep the Caliphate
in a corner politically, economically, and militarily?

Of course, it probably wouldn't work, due to the need for hard currency
that the Caliphate provided Chipan, but I'd think after the events
of Crusade, they'd be rethinking their business relationships with
the Caliphate.

[Stuart]

When do the US policy makers (read, the Business) learn that the Caliphate was going to refuse their demands and accept nuclear annihilation until Model took matters into his own hands? And would this have an effect on the Policy Makers of the US, in that they now would know that the Caliphate is full of nutcases who are
irrational and insane?

This happens once Model reaches Russia; the problem is that its a hard piece of information to confirm - basically there is only his account for it. However, the perception that The Caliphate is a lunatic asylum run by the inmates was gaining ground anyway. Then there is another problem; its not just getting information that's the problem, its getting people to believe the information and then to act on that belief. There is an eternal problem with this, it is always very easy to find ten thousand reasons for doing nothing. The art is to find a reason why a necessary action should be done (the corollary being that the published reasons for an action may be absolutely nothing to do with the real reasons for that action. "May" is a mis-statement there. The published reasons for an action are very rarely the real reasons for that action.)

By the way, The Caliphate leaders are not insane; they simply don't understand what they are dealing with. They look at the world in a very simplistic manner and do so through the lens of some very strange perceptions. Their attitudes, by the way, are drawn from life. They are the way that people like Osama bin Laden and his ilk look at the world.

Would this have a slight thawing effect on US/Chipanese relations as both sides would now realize that the Caliphate is full of insane nutters and it's in both sides best interests to marginalize and keep the Caliphate in a corner politically, economically, and militarily? Of course, it probably wouldn't work, due to the need for hard currency that the Caliphate provided Chipan, but I'd think after the events of Crusade, they'd be rethinking their business relationships with the Caliphate.

It does, in that after 1965 and the events in "Crusade", The Caliphate moves up to being considered the primary enemy of the United States, pushing Chipan down accordingly. The problem is that Chipan itself is run by nutters - a problem being resolved in "High Frontier". Under the Tsuji administration, Chipan funded Caliphate activities for exactly the same reason that the @ USSR funded a whole clutch of terrorist movements diuring the same time period - time and resources spent fighting the proxy are not spend fighting the principal. That logic still holds despite the apparent insanity of The Caliphate leadership.

[Stuart]

Start of a new story (a bit of a teaser, this one will be slow coming due to other commitments). Its set in 2445.

Interstellar Highway

[Colonel Olrik]

Start of a new story (a bit of a teaser, this one will be slow coming due to other commitments). Its set in 2445.

Interstellar Highway

I have this feeling that Europe's position in the world has been downgraded from vacation place to vast, empty desert

[phongn]

Stuart posted this on another board:

The assessment of the effects of a full-blown biowar are taken from some studies done on the subject a few years back. Both Russian and American. The conclusion was that casualties were completely unpredictable but likely to number in the billions. In TBO, when the Dark Ages started, world population was around 6 billion. After the plagues had burned out, it was barely 600 million, of whom a third were Americans, the rest Russians and Triple Alliance.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Dear god in heaven. 80% of the US survives, and almost no one else.