Syria getting Iskander-E, S-300PMU2, Tor-M1

[Vympel]

The Tor-M1 protects the S-300PMU2 which in turn protects the Iskander-E?

If this actually happens, Syria gets an advanced, accurate, and hard-to-kill 280km range short-range ballistic misisle with a Circular Error Probable of probably 30-50m, as well as the means to defend it. Not as impressive as the indigenous Russian Tender SRBM, but then, the Israelis should be counting their lucky stars for things like the Missile Technology Control Regime- no nuclear warhead option on Iskander-E.

[Ma Deuce]

the Israelis should be counting their lucky stars for things like the Missile Technology Control Regime- no nuclear warhead option on Iskander-E.

They're still going to go apeshit over it...

[phongn]

Doesn't Israel have Arrow and PAC-3?

[Ma Deuce]

In a related story, Russia is now offering Tu-22M3s and Tu-95s to China.

Linky

The Russians' habit of selling advanced weapons to whoever has the cash is starting to border on reckless, and IMHO it's going to come back to bite them in the ass someday...

[Kazuaki Shimazaki]

The Russians' habit of selling advanced weapons to whoever has the cash is starting to border on reckless, and IMHO it's going to come back to bite them in the ass someday...

At least their remaining operational nukes would hopefully have enough deterrent effect to save them from complete annihilation. When your nation's idea of an improvement is to let your pilots fly all of 60 hours a year, one is left to desperate measures.

It is the same game they have been playing since the Soviet Union broke up: sell stuff to keep their defense industry alive in the hopes that the country would get its shit (and Defense) together before someone they sold equipment to decides to use it on them.

I guess it is a strategy ... kind of ... not selling and letting the industry die won't be great for their national defense in the long term, after all. Once that stuff dies, even if they get their economy back together, they may not be able to revive the military industry (see Japan and its "wonderful" post-war attempts to make military aircraft). And I don't see the Americans selling them their top of the line (or at least top of the line export) stuff anytime soon to the Russkies even if they could pay for them - they won't be that close allies even if Russia tries within a short time frame. Which leaves them building their own equipment, and they can't do that if their military-industrial complex rolls over totally.

[Chmee]

In a related story, Russia is now offering Tu-22M3s and Tu-95s to China.

Linky

The Russians' habit of selling advanced weapons to whoever has the cash is starting to border on reckless, and IMHO it's going to come back to bite them in the ass someday...

When they pass us as the #1 arms dealer in the world, get back to me.

[Nathan F]

In a related story, Russia is now offering Tu-22M3s and Tu-95s to China.

Linky

The Russians' habit of selling advanced weapons to whoever has the cash is starting to border on reckless, and IMHO it's going to come back to bite them in the ass someday...

When they pass us as the #1 arms dealer in the world, get back to me.

The US doesn't sell anything and everything to the highest bidder (usually). Russia does.

[Chmee]

In a related story, Russia is now offering Tu-22M3s and Tu-95s to China.

Linky

The Russians' habit of selling advanced weapons to whoever has the cash is starting to border on reckless, and IMHO it's going to come back to bite them in the ass someday...

When they pass us as the #1 arms dealer in the world, get back to me.

The US doesn't sell anything and everything to the highest bidder (usually). Russia does.

Mostly to people who can't afford our stuff.

[Big Phil]

When they pass us as the #1 arms dealer in the world, get back to me.

The US doesn't sell anything and everything to the highest bidder (usually). Russia does.

Mostly to people who can't afford our stuff.

The difference is the US (theoretically) sells equipment only to its allies, while Russia sells to anyone willing to buy. China is hardly a Russian ally (they've fought several border skirmishes since the 1940's), and yet Russia sells them modern equipment willy-nilly.

[Sea Skimmer]

Doesn't Israel have Arrow and PAC-3?

They have both operationally deployed, but they don't really have enough of them to ward off a large saturation attack. While these new SRBM's provide Syria with a new capability, since they can actally be effective against military targets, they aren't very powerful and unless they get shot off by the dozens quickly it isn't going to be that big an annoyance. I really doubt Syria will be buying large numbers though, or ever launching large numbers at once.

[phongn]

It might also help greatly if Israel purchases MTHEL when its done, though I have no idea how useful it'll be against a terminal-phase SRBM.

[Sea Skimmer]

It would probably be effective, but the quite short effective range of the system means its only point defence, and point defence in the terms of protecting part of a single base with each firing unit. The cost of covering even military targets in Israel's interior would probably quickly be more then that of just buying more Patriot firing units and missiles.

[Vympel]

Russia is not going to sell Tu-22M3s and Tu-95MS' to China, too bad that link is dead, but I know it's BS anyway.

[MKSheppard]

Not as impressive as the indigenous Russian Tender SRBM, but then, the Israelis should be counting their lucky stars for things like the Missile Technology Control Regime- no nuclear warhead option on Iskander-E.

But does Syria have a fucntional working NAIADS to go with it? All this
fancy equipment is nothing with out a real IADS to tie it all together,
and it doesn't look like Syria has one.

[Vympel]

I bet they're just buying a handful purely for the purpose of defending the Iskander-E launchers from air attack, in which case you don't need a full IADS- just local (probably Tor-M1 can interface with S-300PMU2 anyway...)

Syria has jack crap money, remember ...

[Aaron]

But does Syria have a fucntional working NAIADS to go with it? All this
fancy equipment is nothing with out a real IADS to tie it all together,
and it doesn't look like Syria has one.

Whats that in english Shep?

[Chris OFarrell]

Doesn't Israel have Arrow and PAC-3?

They have both operationally deployed, but they don't really have enough of them to ward off a large saturation attack. While these new SRBM's provide Syria with a new capability, since they can actally be effective against military targets, they aren't very powerful and unless they get shot off by the dozens quickly it isn't going to be that big an annoyance. I really doubt Syria will be buying large numbers though, or ever launching large numbers at once.

And if Syria DID decide to use it, you know the next sound you would hear would be the IAF inbound to blow the shit out of it, S-300 or no S-300. I trust the IAF far more to be able to take out their targets then Syria to know how to correctly and effectivly use state of the art Russian SAM's effectivly.

[MKSheppard]

Whats that in english Shep?

National Integrated Air Defense System

[Vympel]

And if Syria DID decide to use it, you know the next sound you would hear would be the IAF inbound to blow the shit out of it, S-300 or no S-300. I trust the IAF far more to be able to take out their targets then Syria to know how to correctly and effectivly use state of the art Russian SAM's effectivly.

They wouldn't find it. The Iskander-E TEL can be off and moving seconds after launch. They'd be making a punitive strike elsewhere instead.

[Aaron]

They wouldn't find it. The Iskander-E TEL can be off and moving seconds after launch. They'd be making a punitive strike elsewhere instead.

Thats assuming that tthe crew is properly trained, what're the standards like for the Syrian Army?

[Vympel]

Thats assuming that tthe crew is properly trained, what're the standards like for the Syrian Army?

Mostly crap, but their elite guys get all the good stuff, like the tank killers with their Metis-M and Kornet-E ATGMs. They have Tochka SRBMs (little brother of the Oka, the banned predecessor to Tender/Iskander-E) so they should be quite familiar with general principles.

[Chmee]

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who held talks in Washington on Wednesday, did not rule out an SA-18 sale to Syria. But he stressed that Moscow does not plan to sell the Iskander-E to Damascus, and said this was not raised by the United States.

Link

You're not suggesting Pooty would lie to us???

Sounds like the Israelis' most realistic concern is the Syrians buying SA-18's and then having them 'mysteriously' turn up in Hezbollah's hands.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Thats assuming that tthe crew is properly trained, what're the standards like for the Syrian Army?

I'm sure when it comes to avoiding the horrible consequence of being blown to hell by Israeli strike-aircraft that they'll be quite adept at such manoeuvres.

[Kazuaki Shimazaki]

Russia is not going to sell Tu-22M3s and Tu-95MS' to China, too bad that link is dead, but I know it's BS anyway.

The link was alive when I read it. I'm not surprised. Here it is for those who can't read it:

Russia could sell China strategic bombers and plans to tout them during a joint exercise later this year, Air Force commander General Vladimir Mikhailov said Thursday.

"We could sell some Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 bombers [to China]. We will show them to our neighbor. ... If they have the money, let them buy," Mikhailov told reporters at a briefing, referring to the first-ever joint Russian-Chinese military maneuvers announced by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov last month.

Able to carry long-range nuclear cruise missiles, these strategic bombers would significantly boost Chinese nuclear capability, said Konstantin Makiyenko, a defense analyst with the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

Over the past decade, China has been the top customer for Russian arms, stocking up on Sukhoi fighters, destroyers and advanced air-defense systems.

The strategic arm of the Air Force is to get two new Tu-160 bombers this year. Last month, its commander, Lieutenant General Igor Khvorov, said the Air Force is considering about 10 design proposals for a new generation bomber based on the Tu-160.

The Air Force's 30 percent increase in budget funding this year should help to speed up the modernization of its existing fighter planes and the next generation fighter program, Mikhailov said Thursday.


This year the Air Force will finance the upgrade of 17 more Su-27 jets into the more advanced Su-27SM version fitted with new avionics. Late last year it received seven Su-27SMs from the Sukhoi production plant at Komsomolsk-on-Amur.

Mikhailov said that Sukhoi is continuing work on the fifth-generation fighter, which it hopes to test-fly by 2007. Its future progress would depend on financing, which has been insufficient so far, he said.

In a new development, Mikhailov said that MiG-29 fighters would also be modernized, signaling a shift by the Air Force away from Sukhoi-only upgrade programs.

He said that MiG officials would next Monday begin inspecting the MiG-29s that are to be upgraded. After the refit, some will be returned to the Air Force and some sold abroad.

Mikhailov said he had also discussed with MiG executives the creation of a new light fighter, but he refused to go into details.

"This means that the Air Force will resume a tender for the next generation fighter," said Makiyenko, the defense analyst. "MiG has continued working on this project, despite Sukhoi winning the government tender two years ago."

In a separate comment, Mikhailov said Air Force pilots will fly an average of 60 hours this year, an increase on previous years.

Well, I thought that they started talking about this rumor since the 90s, on and off. IMHO The Tu-95s in particular probably aren't that much of a new extra risk to Russia. It is a cruise missile carrier and more vulnerable than the B-52. As long as they hadn't sold the Kh-55/65s to go with them already. And if they did, or the Chinese have their own working cruise missiles (like the HN series), then it doesn't matter much whether they are sticking them on Bears or their old H-6 knockoffs of the Badger which IIRC have enough range to at least one way to Moscow.

It will increase their ability to perform maritime surveillance and standoff antiship attack with the right ordnance, but that in the short to mid term bothers the United States 7th Fleet and maybe the Japanese MSDF a lot more than anyone else.

At least they aren't selling stuff they don't even have themselves, but older stuff - aren't they trying to go to the M5 variant of the Backfire now?

[Vympel]

They've outright refused to sell Tu-22M3s to China in the past, I don't see why they'd start now- I think it was just idle-talk in the context of the joint exercise they're holding.

The article is wrong about the fifth generation fighter tender being re-opened, MiG's new lightweight fighter is not a PAK FA contender, its meant for the cheaper market.

At least they aren't selling stuff they don't even have themselves, but older stuff - aren't they trying to go to the M5 variant of the Backfire now?

I'm unsure if the upgrade for the Tu-22M3 has started, I don't think it has. Tu-95MS has, of course (Tu-95MSM) and the first upgraded Tu-160 is being delivered this year (a new-build model upgraded before entering service) along with a standard version.