The Big One

[Col. Crackpot]

an awful lot of radiation is on the borders of Germany. Poland, France, Switzerland and the Low Countries must be pretty well fucked.

[Stuart]

an awful lot of radiation is on the borders of Germany. Poland, France, Switzerland and the Low Countries must be pretty well.........

It's important to remember that the devices used in TBO were fission weapons. They were mostly Mark 3s (yields between 35 and 49 kilotons depending on configuration and fissile used) with a handful of Mark Ones (yield 8 - 15 kilotons) and some Model 1561s (yield 15 - 20 kilotons). They aren't powerful enough to cause the massive fallout that fusion groundbursts cause. That means radioactive contamination in neighboring countries will be mostly drift . It'll be gone in a week or so - however, it will have effects that linger. I'll get back to that.

There are two distinct classes of contamination on Mark's map. In the north, the shipyards were hit by multiple groundbursts. This is the worst possible thing we can do to an area from the contamination point of view. The ground-bursts suck all the debris into the fireball and produce large volumes of medium-grade fission products that are then distributed downwind. In Europe, the primary wind pattern is west to east (for those who like historical trivia, that's one reason why the RFC had so many problems in WW1 - if their aircraft were hit over enemy lines, they had to fly against the wind to get back to friendly territory; if German aircraft were hit, the wind tended to carry them to safety) so the wind carries fallout largely eastwards. The mid-range fission products are dangerous because they combine high levels of activity with relatively long half-lives (40 - 50 years). Remember half-life doesn't mean radiation goes; it means it drops to half its previous levels. If it was 1,000 rems then it will have dropped to 500 - which is still life-threatening. So the North of Germany is gone for (probably) a century or two - barring some extremely expensive remedial work. Essentially, that would mean removing 12 - 18 inches of topsoil and throwing it away. Somewhere.

In the Ruhr valley, the attacks were mostly airbursts over industrial targets. This produces little in the way of drift radiation but the problem is the sheer number of devices used. These would produce very large number of hotspots that would be very quickly lethal and would remain that way for decades (one hotspot found near a test shot had a rating of an estimated 10,000 rems - estimated because nobody can get close enough to check it). These would be distributed in irregular, unpredictable patterns - and there would be no visible clues of their presence..

Perhaps the best way of expressing the difference is this. In the north, try to walk across the prohibited zone and you'll be dying from the moment you start. You'll make it a considerable distance but you won't make it to the other side. In the Ruhr start walking across the zone and you might make it to the other side completely unharmed - but, also, the first step might kill you dead in your tracks.

The cities themselves would be OK after a comparatively short period of time; the initial fury of the radiation from the devices is gone in 12 - 24 hours. Provided the hotspots are cleaned up, they'd be safe for inhabitation quite soon. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were safe to live in very soon after their respective events. The catch is that cities need a lot of infrastructure to support them and its all gone. Nobody would live there and its believed that a cultural phobia against city living would be quick to develop.

Back to surrounding countries (as promised). The primary long-term effect is what I have described as "The Great Famine". There are several components to this. One is the residual effects of long-term, low level radiation. This isn't a killer but its the cause of a general malaise that affects almost everything. Plans, animals, humans, the lot. Crops don't grow well, animals are less productive, humans likewise. Also, the dust in the atmosphere caused by the huge fires in Germany will pull temperature down significantly and that will cause crop problems as well. Add them all together and Europe's food production gets flushed down the toilet.

[Sea Skimmer]

These would produce very large number of hotspots that would be very quickly lethal and would remain that way for decades (one hotspot found near a test shot had a rating of an estimated 10,000 rems - estimated because nobody can get close enough to check it).

Since rem is a measurement of absorbed radiation; what kind of timeframe are we talking about for this 10,000 rem level of exposure?

Speaking of absurd levels of radioactivity, how well does the Russian nuclear program go in this timeline in terms of safety? I'd imagine the poor economic state of the country after TBO would force them to cut as many corners as they did under Stalin to build their early nuclear arsenal. But perhaps they might do better later on at places like Chelyabinsk-65 and not create radioactive lakes of death?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Stuart, would you like me to do some work on what happens in the Balkans postwar? The situation there is just going to be a perfect mess, since Hitler changed the borders essentially at whim and there's occupation troops everywhere. It will be, I suspect, several years and lots of threats before the Russians and Americans get everyone there to Sit Down And Shut Up as it were.

[MKSheppard]

"As improved nuclear weapons escalated the threat of destruction, more elaborate ideas were framed for protecting key elements of the American way of life. During the 1960s, Presidents John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson gave serious consideration to a Department of Defense recommendation to build a Deep Underground Command Center. This structure would burrow 3,500 feet -- two-thirds of a mile -- below the surface in the Washington, DC, area. The President and other key civilian and military leaders would be able to seek refuge there within 15 minutes. The Secretary of Defense predicted that such a structure would "withstand multiple direct hits of 200 to 300 MT [megaton] weapons bursting at the surface or 100 MT weapons penetrating to depths of 70-100 feet." Depending on its ultimate size, the cost of the facility was estimated to be between $110 million and $310 million."

From Skimmer...

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Bah, the South Africans have made mines even deeper than that.

[Stuart]

Stuart, would you like me to do some work on what happens in the Balkans postwar? The situation there is just going to be a perfect mess, since Hitler changed the borders essentially at whim and there's occupation troops everywhere. It will be, I suspect, several years and lots of threats before the Russians and Americans get everyone there to Sit Down And Shut Up as it were.

Yes please. Very much so, your contributions are invaluable. Usual request; can you run thing by me before posting? Just so I can make sure there isn't a potential clash with the rest of the stuff.

By the way, any more of Sun Sets coming soon?

[Sea Skimmer]

Bah, the South Africans have made mines even deeper than that.

They are expecting to hit a depth of 16,000 feet in one of those mines, by 2010 I believe. However they also have major problems with cooling at those depths, and even with massive active water-cooling systems and simply spraying down the rocks with cold water (which often causes them to explode, killing many a worker) the temperatures are still in the 130+ degree ranges at 11,000 feet.

Not the most practical place to build a non-HAB bunker, since you couldn't count on have a nice massive surface cooling installation and you can't exactly use the surrounding rock or water table as a heat sink. Not a very effective one anyway.

[Stuart]

[Since rem is a measurement of absorbed radiation; what kind of timeframe are we talking about for this 10,000 rem level of exposure?

Sorry, I lapsed into jargon there. The activity of the hotspot in question (a very short-lived one) was 10,000 rems/hour.

[Sea Skimmer]

Sorry, I lapsed into jargon there. The activity of the hotspot in question (a very short-lived one) was 10,000 rems/hour.

Wow, that is quite incredible. If what I've read is correct, that's a few times higher then even the level of radioactivity then was present in the very immediate aftermath of the Chernobyl explosion.

[Sea Skimmer]

High Frontier – Seventeen

[MKSheppard]

High Frontier 17

[MKSheppard]

German Presidents 1947-2000

[Sea Skimmer]

High Frontier – Eighteen

[phongn]

HF19

[Thirdfain]

Powerful stuff, High Frontier. The scene with Heinlein brought a tear to my eye.

[admiral_danielsben]

Sorry, I lapsed into jargon there. The activity of the hotspot in question (a very short-lived one) was 10,000 rems/hour.

Wow, that is quite incredible. If what I've read is correct, that's a few times higher then even the level of radioactivity then was present in the very immediate aftermath of the Chernobyl explosion.

Sounds huge... forgive me if i'm wrong, but isn't 600 rems/hour the 'fatal dose'? If so, then it might be difficult to get even robots in there...

[darthdavid]

Yay. I can connect w/o a proxy again!!!

[Stuart]

Sounds huge... forgive me if i'm wrong, but isn't 600 rems/hour the 'fatal dose'? If so, then it might be difficult to get even robots in there...

Not quite; 500rems/hour is lethal on short exposure. 450 Rem is considered to be the LD50 dose. The faster the dose, the quicker the death.

In the case in question (caveat, I heard of this second hand, it took place long before I was around) apparently the area in question was so hot it couldn't be approached and its location was determined by coming from different directions and plotting a circle. The rate of cooling was then monitored and the area investigated when it had cooled enough to be approached.

[Crayz9000]

High Frontier 20

[darthdavid]

But gravity is just a theory...

[Andras]

TwentyOne

[darthdavid]

Chipan is screwed, and so is MOLPOL 4

[MKSheppard]

Chipan is screwed, and so is MOLPOL 4

Noooooooooooooooooooo my command shall burn brightly!

[phongn]

Chipan is screwed, and so is MOLPOL 4

Nah, Chipan doesn't seem too screwed, not from what I've seen of the timeline.