Most "Realistic" SF Scenario

Rathark · Post by **Rathark** » 2002-11-17 11:01pm

The very issue of "realistic SF" is perhaps the ultimate Catch-22 situation. Initially, it seems necessary to exclude far future scenarios, because we don't have a clue what the 425th century is going to be like. On the other hand, stories set in a mere 10 or 20 years could be proven wrong very swiftly - either for being too conservative or too radical, or both. Although cinematic classics, 2001 and Bladerunner are both dated as "predictions". 2001 needs to be pushed further into the "future" for a number of reasons, and Bladerunner's depiction of 2019 (artificial humanoids, offworld colonies) seems increasingly Not Very Likely.

Which SF novel is the most "believeable"? Which movie? TV series? Clearly novels have the edge for believability, so there will be 2 or 3 different yardsticks for credibility here.

Something tells me that we should also include the most "believeable" far future / alien scenario, as pointless as it may seem. Is B5 more credible than most other TV franchises presicely BECAUSE the ships are so vulnerable? Just how scientifically plausible are the Culture or the Xeelee? (Don't slap me, guys, because I'm aware that scientific plausibility and entertainment value / literary merit are completely seperate concepts). Is the film and novel Contact high on the credibility scale even if we consider the wormholes? If not, then how is 2001 any different (apart from the "future" setting)?

Brother-Captain Gaius · Post by **Brother-Captain Gaius** » 2002-11-17 11:39pm

Death Day and EarthRise, by William C. Dietz...not his best work, but everything in there is possible.

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2002-11-17 11:47pm

Well, Babylon 5 scores some plausibility points for illustrating that not every culture in a galactic civilisation will be on the same technological level of development. Some will be comparatively primitive, others more advanced, and the rates of development will be different. Earth Alliance, for example, had already surpassed the Narn Regime in some areas and were headed for controlled gravity before the formation of the Interstellar Alliance. In other areas, however, you have to take the show with a box of salt.

Even though its projections have to be "advanced" a bit further forward, 2001: A Space Odyssey wins many points in the plausibility department because you can actually visualise the space architecture envisioned in the movie. The Discovery is a plausible spacecraft design, as is the orbital station, and aside from the stargates of the Monolith Aliens, there are no exotic technologies involved in the story.

The movie Forbidden Planet also wins some plausibility points. Assuming FTL as a given, it is more likely that the initial interstellar explorations would be carried out by simple but rugged scoutcraft with comparatively small crews and that most of our explorations would be within the local neighbourhood (20 lightyear radius). It is also far more likely that we'd be finding the artefacts of extinct cultures before we actually make live contact with aliens. Even if we grant the idea of other civilisations, we're likely to be alone in the galaxy for a loooong time before we ever meet any of them. If we meet them at all.

Probably the one major SF franchise which is the most plausible, aside from the idea of large multiton battlemechs that is, would be the Mobile Suit Gundam universe. If FTL is never realisable on any level, then we're going to be spending most of our evolutionary time within the confines of our own solar system, making the most of the vast resources we've got within our reach between here and the Kuiper Belt. MSG's sphere of action is entirely encompassed within the vicinity of Sol, involves space nations of other humans, and projects divisions based upon space civilisation v. groundbound civilisation. There are no aliens, no exotic technologies, and no FTL spaceflights. That is about the most plausible SF scenario to be found within the major media today.

The Dark · Post by **The Dark** » 2002-11-18 12:56am

I like McCaffrey's Brainship series. The idea of the physically crippled but mentally bright being made into cyborg spaceships strikes me as a realistic "use" of those who would otherwise perish (assuming some slight changes in political ideology and major technological advances). Nothing seems too horribly impossible.

Frank Hipper · Post by **Frank Hipper** » 2002-11-18 02:05am

The Dark wrote:I like McCaffrey's Brainship series. The idea of the physically crippled but mentally bright being made into cyborg spaceships strikes me as a realistic "use" of those who would otherwise perish (assuming some slight changes in political ideology and major technological advances). Nothing seems too horribly impossible.

I'm not familiar with that series. Frank Herbert's novel Destination: Void involves a similar human brain-computer concept. In it the brains go insane and have to be "killed"(they're taken from cadavers). Then the crew has to construct a conscious AI to replace their looney biologicals. The book is a mind bender, look for it at a library or used book store.

The Dark · Post by **The Dark** » 2002-11-18 02:31am

Frank Hipper wrote:
The Dark wrote:I like McCaffrey's Brainship series. The idea of the physically crippled but mentally bright being made into cyborg spaceships strikes me as a realistic "use" of those who would otherwise perish (assuming some slight changes in political ideology and major technological advances). Nothing seems too horribly impossible.
I'm not familiar with that series. Frank Herbert's novel Destination: Void involves a similar human brain-computer concept. In it the brains go insane and have to be "killed"(they're taken from cadavers). Then the crew has to construct a conscious AI to replace their looney biologicals. The book is a mind bender, look for it at a library or used book store.

Try to find "The Ship Who Sang." Void sounds like a similar concept, except that the brains are placed into their "shell" (a cyborg-like containment suit) at the moment of birth, and are trained to be psychologically stable as a ship. They're partnered with "brawns", who are normal humans that act as the "brains" external agents. I mentioned "Ship Who Sang" since it's the original. My favorites, though, are "Partnership" and "The Ship Who Searched."

gravity · Post by **gravity** » 2002-11-20 07:05am

Try any books by Greg Egan, especially Disapora. It's far-future SF based almost entirely on real, current science, with a bit of speculation thrown in to spice things up, but nothing unreasonable or even very unlikely (eg, there's no faster than light anything, no transporters, not even much in the way of long-range space travel). It's also very entertaining.

gravity · Post by **gravity** » 2002-11-20 07:08am

Here is an interesting link about different levels of science-fiction realism and how you can tell the difference:

http://www.orionsarm.com/books/grading.html