The oil crisis and doom mongering

[Shroom Man 777]

LINK

Is this guy (the two of those predicting the apocalypse, actually) right? Are we really THAT fucked? Or is he just overreacting to something which isn't as fucked up as he thinks?

Personally, I think it's the latter. But I lack the knowledge to actually say anything. Guys, what say you?

[SirNitram]

There is a solution, whether it's a terrible as he thinks or not. We can synthesize oil; it's just hydrocarbon in the end. As the price goes up, it'll get more cost-effective to create our own from our own carbon-based wastes. And that's assuming there's no improvements in the technologies involved.

[Shroom Man 777]

Well, yeah. We could use that for the plastics, in conjunction with whatever's left of our oil. After we've jumped to nuclear energy and hydrogen fuel cells and crap.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Biodiesel allows for various fuel replacements and the creation of plastics in the event fossil fuel peak production is reached (and some argue it already has been).

[General Brock]

The only people worried are those that depend on the oil infrastructure for power and position but don't have sufficient wealth or brains to diversify. There are reasonable alternatives to fossil fuels that are slowly coming into popular use. I wouldn't doubt that there are aramgeddon worshippers out there though. When Y2K was the buzz, I had the impresssion some just folks wanted it to happen.

[The Guid]

There are people who seem to pray for the end of the world. Amazing how many of them seem to be Americans who have guns and food stockpiled and who read Revelations. Perhaps it has a passge which if read whilst using a bannana to cover up certain words and every third word is translated into Polish then it reveals the sentence: "And thIngs will be less there." A clear reference to the oil running out!!!!!!

[That NOS Guy]

There are people who seem to pray for the end of the world. Amazing how many of them seem to be Americans who have guns and food stockpiled and who read Revelations. Perhaps it has a passge which if read whilst using a bannana to cover up certain words and every third word is translated into Polish then it reveals the sentence: "And thIngs will be less there." A clear reference to the oil running out!!!!!!

Having read revelations I think it's a pretty damn big timeframe in which to work. No need to stockpile when you have about 15 years of events leading up until the end

Back to the topic, I think the other thread on oil shale and alternate deposits of oil could come into play given the right circumstances. That ought to at least by us sometime.

[General Brock]

I've been told by a geologist that reserves of conventional oil exist that are presently too deep to be extracted using present drilling depths. The value of the OPEC countries is that their oil is close to the surface in large quantities. Our present economies rely on cheap oil, but the stuff itself won't suddenly run dry. As long as fuel-efficient technologies and alternatives continue to slowly expand into the existing infrastructure, the period of adjustment to a oil-poor world should be fairly smooth, at least for hi-tech, developed countries. Controlling access to oil will still be important to world powers, though, because the stuff is too versatile. Maybe a country has more than enough oil for itself, but controlling a rival economy's access is the next concern for advancing a competitive advantage.

[Spambot Jedi]

I think this is what Grafspee and Valdemar were referring to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_pe ... d_websites

As this is not my field I cannot really offer much in the way of commentary. A physicist came to my uni recently and spoke on the subject--and I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night

[SPOOFE]

There are people who seem to pray for the end of the world.

It's easier to manipulate people when they're in a blind panic.

[Zero]

It isn't just that. As far as christians go, the end of the world mentioned in the bible was actually supposed to be a message of hope for them. It was written during that period where they were the entertainment in coliseums. They'd walk willingly into the mouths of lions, and everybody else would have a good laugh. So they came up with a prophesy in which they win, in the end. If you look at christian history, almost every generation has had a sense that they are the last generation, and that the end of the world will come to pass in their lifetimes. They're both afraid and hopefull for an end to it all.

With the peak oil thing, though... that's actually something to worry about, I think. We do have excess oil supplies, but if the price of oil goes up too much, it won't be cost-effective to actually transport goods anymore. Folks'll be starving simply because the supermarket's closed, and they can't afford to get out of town. We talk about a lot of alternatives, but because nobody's afraid, we won't start trying to use any of them, until we're far too screwed to make a come back.

Do you find the idea of a post-industrial stoneage a bit ironic?

[Ra]

If the price were to go up too much, yes there would be a crisis, but the fact that it's too expensive - and thus no one buys gas - would drive the price back down. Such is the way of economics. Now, if we ran out. Then we're SOL.
- Ra

[Thirdfain]

We aren't running out of oil any time soon, some estimates place enough oil under Siberia that it'd make more gasoline than the entire Middle East has crude. The problem is, it's mostly locked up in shale deposits, making it considerably more expensive to harvest.

Basically, the oil fields in the Middle East are un-naturally easy to exploit, and there's plenty of oil around the world which you can't just poke a tube down and suck up like milkshake through a straw.

As the easy stuff runs out, prices will increase as we start having to trek out into the frozen deserts of northern Russia, and all those alternative energy sources econuts spend so much time wanking about will become more and more important and cost-effective, both due to the rising cost of oil and better technology.

There is no oil crisis, except for the oil barons and Middle Eastern whack-a-dictators who will be out of a job in a hundred years, and for luddites with agendas to push.

[BlkbrryTheGreat]

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?t=67457

[Junghalli]

With the peak oil thing, though... that's actually something to worry about, I think. We do have excess oil supplies, but if the price of oil goes up too much, it won't be cost-effective to actually transport goods anymore. Folks'll be starving simply because the supermarket's closed, and they can't afford to get out of town.

The Invisible Hand will spur research into alternative means of power generation as the price of oil becomes more and more ludicrously high. Jesus, what is it with these doom-mongers who think that one day everything is going to be fine and the next day we'll wake up and there'll be no oil left and civilization will collapse and teh kapitalist peegs will all die!!!111. Oil isn't going to just be there one day and not be the next: it'll gradually get more and more expensive, meaning it'll be more and more profitable to research alternatives.

[SirNitram]

With the peak oil thing, though... that's actually something to worry about, I think. We do have excess oil supplies, but if the price of oil goes up too much, it won't be cost-effective to actually transport goods anymore. Folks'll be starving simply because the supermarket's closed, and they can't afford to get out of town.

The Invisible Hand will spur research into alternative means of power generation as the price of oil becomes more and more ludicrously high. Jesus, what is it with these doom-mongers who think that one day everything is going to be fine and the next day we'll wake up and there'll be no oil left and civilization will collapse and teh kapitalist peegs will all die!!!111. Oil isn't going to just be there one day and not be the next: it'll gradually get more and more expensive, meaning it'll be more and more profitable to research alternatives.

Ah, the Invisible Hand.. Man, when someone proves that mechanism exists? That'll be pretty neat.

[Lord Zentei]

Ah, the Invisible Hand.. Man, when someone proves that mechanism exists? That'll be pretty neat.

You're skeptical about the Invisible Hand? You are aware that it is one of the basic premises of modern Economics, right?

[Zero]

The Invisible Hand will spur research into alternative means of power generation as the price of oil becomes more and more ludicrously high. Jesus, what is it with these doom-mongers who think that one day everything is going to be fine and the next day we'll wake up and there'll be no oil left and civilization will collapse and teh kapitalist peegs will all die!!!111. Oil isn't going to just be there one day and not be the next: it'll gradually get more and more expensive, meaning it'll be more and more profitable to research alternatives.

Oil will still be around, but prices will increase dramatically, and research in alternative fuels still won't be profitable, because it typically costs more oil to produce such things then you might save from their usage. In the long term, it would be a good idea, but it won't actually be cost-effective... since everbody's greedy, and nobody will actually make a profit from alternative fuels unless they find a practical one that yields more energy then it uses. And also, because it'll be a gradual process, most people won't worry, so people pushing for alternative fuels research will be seen as alarmists. Hell, we might already be there.

[Lord Zentei]

Oil will still be around, but prices will increase dramatically, and research in alternative fuels still won't be profitable,

Blatant contradiction.

because it typically costs more oil to produce such things then you might save from their usage.

How the fuck does it cost oil to research non oil based energy sources?

In the long term, it would be a good idea, but it won't actually be cost-effective... since everbody's greedy, and nobody will actually make a profit from alternative fuels unless they find a practical one that yields more energy then it uses.

If oil is expensive, researching other energy sources is profitable and people will do so because they are greedy.

And also, because it'll be a gradual process, most people won't worry, so people pushing for alternative fuels research will be seen as alarmists. Hell, we might already be there.

Actually, energy companies are researching alternative fuels. They are doing this because thay are greedy and not stupid: they are fully aware that the oil will run out eventually and don't want to go out of business when this happens. Alternative fuels are not yet dominating the market because they are still more expensive. As oil increases in price and the alternative energy technologies become more sophisticated there will be a gradual shift away from the oil. Already, "hybrid" cars are in the works.

[SirNitram]

Ah, the Invisible Hand.. Man, when someone proves that mechanism exists? That'll be pretty neat.

You're skeptical about the Invisible Hand? You are aware that it is one of the basic premises of modern Economics, right?

Yes. Simply put, I put no faith in economics theory because I've yet to find anything that backs the existance of the mechanisms claimed. Now, if someone proves I'm wrong, thats great... But I've not seen in yet.

Adam anthropormorphizes the Market; his argument is that it is entirely self-correcting. Now, there's a certain degree of self correction, he's right there. But what's critically missing in his writings on it is anything substantiating his claim it'll work reliably and in all the settings it's called on. For instance, the tobacco industry is a good demonstration of the Invisible Hand not working: These individuals are working for their own benefit, but the mystical hand of the Community is not guiding them to bettering everyone else, but getting as many people in their addictive grip as possible.

I agree with Adams in several parts(Especially his apparent belief in Meritocracy), but the Invisible Hand has never been proven, and has substantial real-life examples against.

[Lord Zentei]

You're skeptical about the Invisible Hand? You are aware that it is one of the basic premises of modern Economics, right?

Yes. Simply put, I put no faith in economics theory because I've yet to find anything that backs the existance of the mechanisms claimed. Now, if someone proves I'm wrong, thats great... But I've not seen in yet.

Adam anthropormorphizes the Market; his argument is that it is entirely self-correcting. Now, there's a certain degree of self correction, he's right there. But what's critically missing in his writings on it is anything substantiating his claim it'll work reliably and in all the settings it's called on. For instance, the tobacco industry is a good demonstration of the Invisible Hand not working: These individuals are working for their own benefit, but the mystical hand of the Community is not guiding them to bettering everyone else, but getting as many people in their addictive grip as possible.

I agree with Adams in several parts(Especially his apparent belief in Meritocracy), but the Invisible Hand has never been proven, and has substantial real-life examples against.[/quote]

Economics has advanced since the days of Adam Smith; I understand that recent foreys into Complexity have derived many economic postulates from computer models involving large numbers of AI agents.

In any case, one of Adam's most important premises was that people are capable of making informed choices about their needs and wants (which btw is also one of the basic premises of democracy). In the case of addictive substances this obviously doesn't hold, but that doesn't invalidate economics per se.

[SirNitram]

You're skeptical about the Invisible Hand? You are aware that it is one of the basic premises of modern Economics, right?

Yes. Simply put, I put no faith in economics theory because I've yet to find anything that backs the existance of the mechanisms claimed. Now, if someone proves I'm wrong, thats great... But I've not seen in yet.

Adam anthropormorphizes the Market; his argument is that it is entirely self-correcting. Now, there's a certain degree of self correction, he's right there. But what's critically missing in his writings on it is anything substantiating his claim it'll work reliably and in all the settings it's called on. For instance, the tobacco industry is a good demonstration of the Invisible Hand not working: These individuals are working for their own benefit, but the mystical hand of the Community is not guiding them to bettering everyone else, but getting as many people in their addictive grip as possible.

I agree with Adams in several parts(Especially his apparent belief in Meritocracy), but the Invisible Hand has never been proven, and has substantial real-life examples against.

Economics has advanced since the days of Adam Smith; I understand that recent foreys into Complexity have derived many economic postulates from computer models involving large numbers of AI agents.

And these erase the real-world examples of selling harmful addictive products, or establishing monopolies, how? And where are these?

In any case, one of Adam's most important premises was that people are capable of making informed choices about their needs and wants (which btw is also one of the basic premises of democracy). In the case of addictive substances this obviously doesn't hold, but that doesn't invalidate economics per se.

So your argument is.. Economic isn't invalidated because the Hand is a load of bull. Well, this is true. Economics is bigger than the Hand. Supply/Demand is quite valid. But the Hand is not proven, and since I can name immediate contradictions to it, no, I don't consider it valid, and I will continue to mock those who invoke it as a definate.

[Lord Zentei]

And these erase the real-world examples of selling harmful addictive products, or establishing monopolies, how? And where are these?

As for harmful products, see below. As for the other point, Santa Fe institute. Murray Gell-Mann and K. Arrow

So your argument is.. Economic isn't invalidated because the Hand is a load of bull. Well, this is true. Economics is bigger than the Hand. Supply/Demand is quite valid. But the Hand is not proven, and since I can name immediate contradictions to it, no, I don't consider it valid, and I will continue to mock those who invoke it as a definate.

No: my argument is that the Hand is held to work when both parties in a transaction are in a position to make informed choices about whether or not to make the transaction. This requires tha absence of coercion, a functioning judiciary branch, rule of law and access to adequate information on both sides. In the case of addictive substances there is obviously a lack of the consumers ability to refuse the transaction, so then it cannot be invoked.

Those who invoke the Hand as a definate should indeed be mocked when discussing situations where conditions as the ones I mentioned above are not present.

[Lord Zentei]

Ghetto edit: and obviously, the Hand applies only to markets in private goods, not public goods or externalities.

[Chardok]

Biodiesel allows for various fuel replacements and the creation of plastics in the event fossil fuel peak production is reached (and some argue it already has been).

The problem with biodiesel is it's lack of viscosity. IIRC, a military base once used biodiesel to power it's generators on post and their fuel filter lasted something like 1/3rd as long as they typically do. it has a tendency to...break up deposits on fuel lines and junk and all that shit gets in the filter...or somesuch