GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:In fifty years, I would think that you would have between one to three major colonies with populations in the low millions, between five to twenty modest colonies with populations over 100,000, and between twenty and a couple hundred tiny colonies of fewer than fifty-thousand.
I did some calcs to try to determine what the upper limit carrying capacity would be for this fleet.
5,000 ships, each with a carrying capacity of 800 men, could carry a grand total of four million men. If we assume that most colonies will be established within 125 ly the average journey would be one month one way, or two months from the colony back to Earth. Therefore four million men could be moved every two months. 24 million men could then be moved in a year.
This would, of course, be the absolute upper limit and the actual number would be much, much lower for a variety of reasons. On the whole your numbers seem about right to me.
Molyneux wrote:Okay, but we have to have a rule - NO PSYCHO RELIGIOUS COLONIES. Except maybe the Amish, they're okay.
Heh, the Amish could never migrate from Earth. No technology allowed, remember? It'd be blasphemous to be using an FTL drive. Nope, they're stuck here for good.
Not quite true; Amish do use some technology, most notably scooters (I think) and mass transit. They try to avoid things that focus on vanity for the individual - anything that can be used as a status symbol is usually nixed. Stuff that's necessary for safety and such is a different matter - and if the ship wasn't piloted by an Amish person, they'd probably be okay with it.
Well, the Amish would probably have their own destination, separate from everyone else, because they'd be pretty damn useless in helping to build an advanced colony.
"If one needed proof that a guitar was more than wood and string, that a song was more than notes and words, and that a man could be more than a name and a few faded pictures, then Robert Johnson’s recordings were all one could ask for."
wolveraptor wrote:Well, the Amish would probably have their own destination, separate from everyone else, because they'd be pretty damn useless in helping to build an advanced colony.
On the other hand, if something Really Bad happens on a colonial world that cuts them off from Earth, the Amish would probably be able to weather it with ease.
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."
Well most people would want their colony to be self-sufficient anyways, if they came in order to escape from Earth in the first place. Contributions from Earth means control from Earth.
"If one needed proof that a guitar was more than wood and string, that a song was more than notes and words, and that a man could be more than a name and a few faded pictures, then Robert Johnson’s recordings were all one could ask for."
wolveraptor wrote:Well most people would want their colony to be self-sufficient anyways, if they came in order to escape from Earth in the first place. Contributions from Earth means control from Earth.
Right, but at the start there's going to be some things (Hell, a lot of things) that can only be gotten from Earth. Especially as all the Institutes of Higher Learning are still going to be on earth, the Tech on Earth will advance quicker there than anywhere else. I predict most of the FTL ships will end up being frieghters to support the colonies.
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."
If Earth is still divided at that point into countries, then we might see a replay of the Imperialism and mercantilism, where colonies provide raw goods to Earth country X, who manufactures them into products to sell back. They'd have to include a lot of benefits for colonists, though, to keep it safe. Overtaxing on colonies that bought for more and sold for less caused the Revolution.
"If one needed proof that a guitar was more than wood and string, that a song was more than notes and words, and that a man could be more than a name and a few faded pictures, then Robert Johnson’s recordings were all one could ask for."
wolveraptor wrote:If Earth is still divided at that point into countries, then we might see a replay of the Imperialism and mercantilism, where colonies provide raw goods to Earth country X, who manufactures them into products to sell back. They'd have to include a lot of benefits for colonists, though, to keep it safe. Overtaxing on colonies that bought for more and sold for less caused the Revolution.
I think earth could get any raw materials in system without the expense or time spent getting them from colonies.
Uh, just why couldn't colonies by in system? Besides, it maybe that colonies practice mercantilism upon each other, or that Earth's vast empire can't be fueled by the limited number of Sol system mining facilities.
"If one needed proof that a guitar was more than wood and string, that a song was more than notes and words, and that a man could be more than a name and a few faded pictures, then Robert Johnson’s recordings were all one could ask for."
Molyneux wrote:Okay, but we have to have a rule - NO PSYCHO RELIGIOUS COLONIES. Except maybe the Amish, they're okay.
Heh, the Amish could never migrate from Earth. No technology allowed, remember? It'd be blasphemous to be using an FTL drive. Nope, they're stuck here for good.
Not quite true; Amish do use some technology, most notably scooters (I think) and mass transit. They try to avoid things that focus on vanity for the individual - anything that can be used as a status symbol is usually nixed. Stuff that's necessary for safety and such is a different matter - and if the ship wasn't piloted by an Amish person, they'd probably be okay with it.
But would the Amish be a profitable cargo for a colonial venture? Let's face it, they're primitive people with a low standard of living and a similarly low income. For the first wave or two of this colonial effort, the emphasis will likely be on recouping the costs of building the ships. The Amish would make poor passengers, due to their prohibitions on the use of a lot of technology. This means that you'd have to carry them, their tools, and whatever livestock they need. And livestock take up room that could be better spent on paying passengers. They would probably be more trouble than they were worth. Unless one envisions a Friends of the Amish society willing to foot the bill for some Amish sect to be moved out to another planet. But even then, this sect would have to be really wealthy and influential, as the Amish would have to have the choicest, most Earth-like planet to drop their colony on (lower tech base means less ability to adapt to more hostile conditions than a colony that can start out with pre-fab housing, basic machinery, and will take the assistance of advanced bioengineering to ensure the success of crops tailored to the demands of whatever planet they end up on.)
Molyneux wrote:Okay, but we have to have a rule - NO PSYCHO RELIGIOUS COLONIES. Except maybe the Amish, they're okay.
Heh, the Amish could never migrate from Earth. No technology allowed, remember? It'd be blasphemous to be using an FTL drive. Nope, they're stuck here for good.
Not quite true; Amish do use some technology, most notably scooters (I think) and mass transit. They try to avoid things that focus on vanity for the individual - anything that can be used as a status symbol is usually nixed. Stuff that's necessary for safety and such is a different matter - and if the ship wasn't piloted by an Amish person, they'd probably be okay with it.
Correct, seeThis article, the Amish arn't 'primitive' their just really nutty about community.
