A Question of Colonization.

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2005-07-20 05:06pm

Imagine that it the year is 2563, and the Solar System is united under one vast Solar Empire which just beginning to feel confident enough of it's control of solar resources to begin a massive interstellar colonization program.

Now, in this world, the South Americans, Middle Easterners and North Africans are the major global powers. You live in the United States, which is only finally beginning to recover from a couple centuries of theocratic totalitarianism, so the standard of life is pretty much like it is now.

Enough background. On to the actual scenario:

The Empire is getting ready to launch its first batch of colonization starships. The ship you're thinking of boarding is headed for Tau Ceti. If you and your family agree to board the ship, you will be put in a sort of hibernation and kept on ice until the ship arrives at its destination in 2700. (A trip time of 137 years at about 9% light-speed.) Is this a trip you want to commit to?

Some caveats:
1) This is, obviously, a one-way trip. You will never see Earth again.

2) Completely automated, self-replicating robots have been dispatched ahead of you to make the planet ready for your arrival. They'll beat you by a century. The Imperial official you're talking to assures you the technology has been thoroughly tested, and if something does go wrong, the planet is already inhabitable, so you won't die if they fail.

3) Dissidents living in the asteroid belt sent out starships of their own a couple centuries ago. Their data suggests that 0.2% of everyone in hibernation will die each year of the ship's journey. Your friendly official assures you that the Empire has improved on the technology and they think that the attrition rate will only be 0.12%, but even then, out of a starting population of 92,000, only 78,139 of you will wake up . . . meaning over 13,000 of you will be dead. Your age and condition going into hibernation don't affect your chances of ending up dead. You just have a 0.2% chance of doing so every year. At least, if you die, you'll never know it.

The question is: Do you agree to board this starship? Why, or why not? If not, what incentives could the Empire offer you in order for you to board the ship?

The Grim Squeaker · Post by **The Grim Squeaker** » 2005-07-20 05:17pm

Depends if I'm going with a family and risking their lives.

Personally I would want to wait until the attrition rate was lowered but if it was just me then I'd probably go out there (if the potential death is painless)

Xero Cool Down · Post by **Xero Cool Down** » 2005-07-20 05:17pm

What's my incentive to leave? If nothings wrong with where I'm at I say hell no.

Post by **LadyTevar** » 2005-07-20 05:45pm

I have my doubts, but yeah, I'd go.

Zero · Post by **Zero** » 2005-07-20 06:33pm

The way I see it, why the hell not? It sounds fun as shit to me. I don't really appreciate my surroundings much, and if I had a family of my own, I would want to take them, but the way I see it, this could be interesting. More interesting then staying on earth, at least, even if quality of life would decrease.

My question is, what incentive does this Empire have for sending us out and away?

Noble Ire · Post by **Noble Ire** » 2005-07-20 06:34pm

If I had no family commitments on Earth, I might go.

Then again, I never really been a frontiersman, and the idea of being 172 years "out of time" with no way to get back is a bit unsettling. Tough choice. I'd have to actually be given the decision for real to be sure.

Although, frankly, dying in hibernation doesnt strike me as a really bad way to go comparatively, so that part wouldnt drive me away.

DrkHelmet · Post by **DrkHelmet** » 2005-07-20 07:17pm

The only problem with leaving Earth to go to the selected planet is that there would still be other humans there. However, it would be something new and different, so I'd go if you paid me enough (in a type of currency that would stand the test of time, and accumulate interest).

Junghalli · Post by **Junghalli** » 2005-07-20 08:20pm

I'll wait for FTL to be perfected, then buy the first ticket.

The Guid · Post by **The Guid** » 2005-07-20 08:24pm

I love this planet too much to go. If the US had just come out of the theocratic government I would want to help with the rebuilding of society and mainting of spirituality as well.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2005-07-20 09:32pm

Junghalli wrote:I'll wait for FTL to be perfected, then buy the first ticket.

Same. If it takes 150 years to get there, Ill wait for the next boat.

wilfulton · Post by **wilfulton** » 2005-07-20 09:39pm

I would have been one of the dissidents hiding out in the asteroids, so I'd probably be there already, waiting with my nuclear arsenal

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2005-07-20 09:44pm

wilfulton wrote:I would have been one of the dissidents hiding out in the asteroids, so I'd probably be there already, waiting with my nuclear arsenal

Hah, there's an option I could've added: "Hah, I left with the *first* ships!"

wolveraptor · Post by **wolveraptor** » 2005-07-20 09:44pm

Wait, if the US was just escaping from a theocratic totalitarianism, how would the conditions be as good as they are now? Especially for me, since I wouldn't subscribe to the theocracy? Wouldn't I be part of the hated scum of society?

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2005-07-20 10:05pm

wolveraptor wrote:Wait, if the US was just escaping from a theocratic totalitarianism, how would the conditions be as good as they are now? Especially for me, since I wouldn't subscribe to the theocracy? Wouldn't I be part of the hated scum of society?

This is over 500 years into the future. Imagine the rest of the world has it better than the United States does. Imagine that the world has moved forward in the fields of cybernetics, robotics, genetic therapies, computers and networking, and have the benefits of cleaner power, planned communities, etc, etc, etc. In short, envision South America being like metropolitan Japan or Europe, or the west coast of the United States, and envision the United States being like Uganda or Somalia in comparision.

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2005-07-20 10:09pm

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:
wolveraptor wrote:Wait, if the US was just escaping from a theocratic totalitarianism, how would the conditions be as good as they are now? Especially for me, since I wouldn't subscribe to the theocracy? Wouldn't I be part of the hated scum of society?
This is over 500 years into the future. Imagine the rest of the world has it better than the United States does. Imagine that the world has moved forward in the fields of cybernetics, robotics, genetic therapies, computers and networking, and have the benefits of cleaner power, planned communities, etc, etc, etc. In short, envision South America being like metropolitan Japan or Europe, or the west coast of the United States, and envision the United States being like Uganda or Somalia in comparision.

By the 'rest of the world' I mean where the first world of this future is, where the center of Imperial power is.

wolveraptor · Post by **wolveraptor** » 2005-07-20 10:11pm

Ah, so the US has stayed the same, but the rest of the world is officially kick-ass, particularly in the Mid East etc.

Then I'd sure as hell leave. Since I'd have grown up during this time, I'd look to the rest of the world's standard of living as the only acceptable standard, and think that I had it bad. Plus, as I've said before, I like the idea of being a larger percentage of the population. The new world would have more of my influence.

If I could get just 1 friend to come along, it'd be great.

On the other hand, the idea of stepping into the cryo-chamber as my last memory would be terrifying. That alone might dissuade me. Besides, even if I survived, what if one of my loved ones bit the dust. What if one of my friend's family came along and died? They might blame me for convincing them to tag along.

Post by **fgalkin** » 2005-07-20 10:17pm

First of all, your numbers of dead are wrong. That;'s 12%, not .12%.

Secondly, I use the cryotech to sleep until they create workable FTL

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2005-07-20 10:30pm

fgalkin wrote:First of all, your numbers of dead are wrong. That;'s 12%, not .12%. :P

Secondly, I use the cryotech to sleep until they create workable FTL

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

My numbers the odds for dying in any given year of the trip. The total odds of dying over the duration of the trip are roughly 14%. I just divided that by 137 years to get the per-year odds. So yes, looking at the whole trip, someone would stand about a 14% chance of never seeing the end of the trip.

Junghalli · Post by **Junghalli** » 2005-07-20 10:52pm

GrandMasterTerwynn wrote:Imagine the rest of the world has it better than the United States does. Imagine that the world has moved forward in the fields of cybernetics, robotics, genetic therapies, computers and networking, and have the benefits of cleaner power, planned communities, etc, etc, etc. In short, envision South America being like metropolitan Japan or Europe, or the west coast of the United States, and envision the United States being like Uganda or Somalia in comparision.

Oh come on, G-Dub can't have been that bad!

darthdavid · Post by **darthdavid** » 2005-07-21 03:30am

I'm out of this dirt hole.

Ford Prefect · Post by **Ford Prefect** » 2005-07-21 05:03am

I'd go. Only if I get the chance to be top dog out there.

The fact is, seeing a whole new world, looking up at a whole new star . . . that alone would do it for me. Especially if I had no dependants. Then I could pick up a chick at the new colony, just for the reasons for repopulation *whistles*

Erik von Nein · Post by **Erik von Nein** » 2005-07-21 05:08am

If they payed me enough, sure. Besides, I'll bet there's all sorts of fun things to discover there, like semi-sentient, red fungus covering the entire planet and balls of worm-like creatures that eat your mind.

bilateralrope · Post by **bilateralrope** » 2005-07-21 05:15am

While I would go, I would much prefer to be going with a crew of people I barly know instead of close friends or relitives since people are going to die in cryo, and it would be less of a loss if I didn't really know them

General Brock · Post by **General Brock** » 2005-07-21 05:50am

No. From the government you describe, I would not trust them to deliver me alive to an inhabitable, uninhabited planet. If I did survive, the spacefare would probably indenture me for life terraforming the mudball.

GrandMasterTerwynn · Post by **GrandMasterTerwynn** » 2005-07-21 09:59am

Erik von Nein wrote:If they payed me enough, sure. Besides, I'll bet there's all sorts of fun things to discover there, like semi-sentient, red fungus covering the entire planet and balls of worm-like creatures that eat your mind.

And here I was thinking that those were native to Alpha Centauri . . .

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