The history of Italian unification tells us that you have no argument. Movements intending to unify nebulous agglomerations of “peoples” supposed to possess the same cultural mores and existing on roughly contiguous frontiers did not necessarily rely on the existence of repressive forces. Italian unification as pursued by the House of Savoy was one such process. While there were Italians languishing under Austrian rule, those in Tuscany, Parma, and Lombardy were not under the boot of a foreign occupier. Rather, they did not yet lie under Piedmontese rule. Had the Confederacy achieved its independence, history actually tells us that Washington could be expected to look South with the hungry grin of an eager shark.
The Italians agitated for the return of Venetia and did in fact join the Prussians against Austria to unify Venetia with the Italian kingdom.
In any event Italian unification preceded the House of Savoy, notably Murat attempted to unify Italy under Naples and di Santarosa lead a failed revolt to the same effect. The House of Savoy were not the first nor the last to ride a popular movement to territorial aggrandization.
Frankly 19th century nationalism was inapplicable to America, both nations were immigrant nations with no clear demarcations such as "Italian, German, etc."
If you really must have a reason in the form of a coherent ideology, try collective belief in Manifest Destiny. The literature on that subject never speaks of two nations; only one.
Yet when presented with the oppurtunity to annex Mexico in total, and congressions debated exactly that, there was little support for reducing the states in North America from four to three.
Furthermore, had the Confederate States made good on their succession, it is quite possible that Great Britain would have milked the situation as best it could, very probably suborning Richmond, which, after the 1870s, could not have survived without copious help from a foreign power, as its slave economy would have collapsed for failure to profitably compete with the India trade. London would likely have used the South to hand diplomatic reverses to the North wherever possible, especially in Latin America, where Southerners tended to make up the bulk of the filibusters. For that reason alone those in power in the United States would have reason to dismantle the Confederacy at earliest opportunity.
Assuming British subbornation, why exactly would the Union agress against an alliance of the CSA and the British Empire? The dangers of dismantling the confederacy under British protection would deter Washington from attempting.
Canada was a dominion of the British crown. The Queen’s military potential was superior to that of the United States in 1860. The Union would ever look down on the Confederacy as eminently weaker, however. And before you complain that there wouldn’t have been enough Canadians to forestall an American invasion, do recall that the British fleet was mighty by comparison with the U.S. Navy throughout the nineteenth century. Even in the 1880s there were South American nations with more potent battleships than our own.
The Queen's naval potential was superior, she had no possible way of projecting a force overseas close to that mustered in the civil war (as evidenced by the limited British deployments in Crimea, South Africa, and Iberia). If the US had wanted Canada in the mid 19th century, and was willing to pay the price. Yes the British could have blockaded until the US, but the British will never be able to have enough boots on the ground to overcome the US.
Which goes to the point. Dismembering the CSA is a far more costly and bloody prospect than fighting a "limited" war for the Aroostoock, "upper Oregon", the Aroostook or simply receiving the
voluntary annexation of the Domican Republic. However painful it would have been to take Canada, taking the CSA, particularly one allied with the British is going to be far greater.
People liked to say that about Russia, too. They made no bones about pilfering the property of their neighbors even so.
The point is Russia wasn't fighting for raw materials themselves, but rather outright territorial aggrandization or some other cause.
Actually, given the competition posed by India, the slave economy was poised to fall in upon itself by the mid-1870s. Considering the sordid state of its manufacturing prior to that time, it would not have been able to complete the necessary economic revolution without an external source of capital (i.e. British and French).
Yes the cotton economy will collapse, however the point was that in 1860 it was a cotton economy, BY CHOICE. Even with the limited capital availible during the war and during its limited timeframe, there was diversification of the southern economy to a small degree.
Or the fate of the Mexican government that tried to quell open rebellions in Texas?
Please, Texas was an internationally recognized state by the major powers (the US, French, British, and Dutch I know off hand). Mexico had been on the verge of recognizing Texan independence - on the condition that she not unite with the US. The Mexican American war was not a border war, but a humbling of the Mexican Republic (it also settled the long outstanding debt owed by Mexico to American citizens). The point is this wasn't a border clash that spiraled into a general war, it was a war fought over policy.
Or the fate of the Spaniards in the Philippines.
I don't recall that being a border skirmish that grew into a war.
The point is the US has minimal history of territorial aggrandization through war, and only against third-rate powers or worse. A border incident with the CSA would not escalate into general war without their being some other compelling reason for it to do so.
Furthermore, you forget that there was shooting over the Aroostook. As I have already pointed out, Washington feared the British Empire. It would not have feared the Confederacy to the same degree, not with stupendously more manpower, vastly superior industry, and a greater abundance of resources.
You yourself support the thesis that the Confederacy would support the British, I agree. Given that war with the CSA would be far more dangerous than war with the British. However much danger lies in fighting in the Aroostook, there is more in territorial aggrandization in the confederacy.
Actually, the South aggressively courted what are popularly referred to as the “Five Civilized Tribes” in Oklahoma, and wooed them with promises of internal self-rule. It also invaded New Mexico and propped up a short-lived territorial government in Arizona, pending statehood at the end of the war.
Yes I know. The point still is that Oklahoma was worthless territory as long as you were going to respect the natives, neither side would have a burning passion to keep it. New Mexico and Arizona were sparsely inhabited enough that the confederacy could try for that territory, and popularly viewed as worthless enough that the North would not fight over them.
Furthermore, many throughout the South furthermore favored filibusters such as William Walker, who would presumably have run afoul of Federal agendas in Latin America by agitating on behalf of Southern interests.
And that would demand a war why exactly? Filibusters ran afoul of many nations in the time period, for instance Ward enraged western Shanghai merchants and the Royal Navy while filibustering against the Taipings. No threat of war ever developed. I really don't see why acrimony over filibustering makes war inevitable.
Very funny, Scotty. Now beam down my clothes.