North Korea crosses the DMZ

[Sam Or I]

North Korea invades South Korea, how far would they get before the US pushed them back? Would they be able to take the penisula?

Got the idea from USAF.

[StarshipTitanic]

No where. US jets would be on them within hours, I'm sure of.

[Stravo]

The sheer power of the US response would shatter the NK attack in a matter of days. The NK's are short of food and supplies and their equipment is third rate. They would gain the advantage of surpise and surge through the lines at first, but they would be stopped cold. The question would be what to do, go north and risk Korea II with China intervening...or simply bitch slap them back up the DMZ.

[Sam Or I]

Playing Devils advocate, NK does have the largest spec ops force in the world. If they hit the comm posts, and command and control centers, there ground forces could do a better job. I would actually give them the advatage for about a full week, and I would say they could take Seoul. Before we could push them back. Plus launch a few missiles at Japan and the west coast could cause more damage (Especially if they used a bioattack, like small pox or something.)

[MagicHateBall]

US would have air and naval responses started within a few hours, infantry and light ground forces in within days, and armor within two weeks.
Even if NK pulls off a massive and successful Specops campaign to wipe out SK's command, control, and comms infrastructure, within a few months their invasion force is going to stop looking like an army and start looking like a red smear.
Unless China butts in, it'd be Desert Shield/Storm all over again.

[XPViking]

According to Casper Weinberger's book The Next War, China would use the North Korean attack to seize Taiwan. Here's an excerpt:

Chuck Baldwin: And if you had to personally predict where you think the next major war would break out, what would you predict?

Caspar Weinberger: Well, I'm afraid I would predict North Korea, where the economy is in horrible shape. You've got a half-mad ruler, a large military and a feeling that the only way they could ever make any improvement is to attack South Korea. In the book they did that and at the same time persuaded China to attack Taiwan, which would mean that we would be tied up in two wars. And sadly, with the capabilities that we have now, we wouldn't be capable of prevailing.

http://www.chuckbaldwinlive.com/caspar.html

It should be stated that the book dramatizes the outbreak, progress and outcome of major wars most likely to occur within the next dozen years.

XPViking

[Oberleutnant]

South Korean military can handle an invasion from the north, even alone without outside support. They are far from inadequate. Especially in the air the SK would dominate with their F-16s which would be only mostly facing MiG-21s. Although Fishbeds have better maneuvrability capabilities, the North Koreans haven't upgraded their weapons and radar systems. They'd be literally anhilated before they even knew what hit 'em. Newer MiG-29 Fulcrums are a different case with their much better electronic systems, but North Korea operates only few of them.

[Cool Cat]

Personally I think it might be a difficult war. I don't see NK invading SK without Chinese help. They know that going alone is tantamount to defeat. If that's the case and they have Chinese help, one might get into a similar situation as in '51-'52.

[Admiral Piett]

I do not know if it is a wise thing to thrash North Korea so much.
One of the reason for which their economy is close to 0 is that they spend a sproprotionate amount of their GDP on the military.Granted they have third rate equipment but they have a lot of it,for example they have more artillery pieces (Ok some are probably WW2 era) than the whole US Army.Also apparently they have accumulated supplies,food munitions etc,for three months of war.
And while the US navy, some Air force elements, and some troops detachement can be dispatched in a matter of days the tanks,the artillery and the infantry will need several weeks to be shipped in the theater of operations.So the most likely scenario is:
1)The North Koreans launch a surprise attack.
2)They remain on the offensive for days/few weeks.
3)The South Koreans manage to block them,even thanks to US air support.
4)The US accumulate enough troops to launch a counterattack.At this point the North koreans will be probably already low on supplies.
5)The North Koreans are defeated.

[Mr Bean]

XPViking
Yes its a nice book but you know what
THE AUTHOR IS A FRIGGEN MORON!

Know how much Anhibious Assets China has?
ALMOST NONE

One of the big things Taiwan has always had on thier side is they have an airforce and bombs and lots of troops and AA
If China attack those millions of troops won't do any good because they have exactly enough ships to move 10k of them at a time, Little under TWENTY ships, And Taiwan has TONS of ways to sink them NTM China's Navy is a joke and there are always US subs in that area(From 2 to six depending how tense it is)

After all what are the troops gonna do swim when Tiawan asks us to sink China's Ahnihps?

Something every strategic planner knows is damn easy for the US to do, We are thirty some cases forty years ahead of China when it comes to Submarines, With death of the USSR we are in a Class to ourself when it comes to sub-warefare, The UK is startig to close with us but we still are the undisputed champs when it comes to blowing ships up and sending them to the bottom.

[Wicked Pilot]

I believe this conflict would play out like the Gulf War. Just like the Iraqis, the North Koreans have a good and capable military, but the U.S. is just so much better. The U.S. and ROK would achieve complete air superiority within a matter of days. DPRK armor would easily plow through the DMZ at first, but they will be subjected to continuos air attack, and once they meet the M1A2, it's all over. Once the DPRK main forces are smashed, you can expect their conscripted reserves to surrender in mass. North Korean citizens would welcome ROK forces as they push north to unite the pennisula. I say barring Chinese involvement, the war would be over in less than two months.

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

Americans would respond quickly, and unless China resues them, they'll be pushed back further. It could lead to another world war. I think the best solution would be to unite the 2 Koreas into a Democratic government.

[Manji]

!!

I read the thread title and thought you were going to announce they'd actually done it, crossed over and started a war.

Anyway, if it happened, South Korea would stomp them.

The soldiers of the ROK military are as hard or harder than USMC (USMC being known for being rock hard), with all the best equipment and weaponry.

Their MBT, the K1A1, is essentially a clone of the M1A1/2 Abrams.

The North has second rate Russian stuff from a couple of decades ago.

The only thing NK has going for it is its nukes.

[XPViking]

Hey Mr. Bean. Relax. I Just put foward what someone else believes may happen. I agree that China has hardly any amphibious craft. And of course with continued US support certainly Taiwan can defend itself. A question would be if China were to use nukes. I would think that such a course of action would tend to defeat the purpose of China wanting to reunite that "renegade" province Taiwan.

Here's an article for your perusal.

http://taiwansecurity.org/TT/2002/TT-072602.htm

found at this site: http://www.taiwansecurity.org/

XPViking

[Mr Bean]

Lemme put it this way

Ever seen the gobale wind patters?

No?

Well I'll say it this way then, Guess where all the Fall-out form the Nukes Lands after destroying Tiawan

China you say?
Good guess

[Master of Ossus]

My guess is that the NK forces would be in SK for between three days and three weeks, but they would never threaten Seoul or any major cities. Barring their surrender and intervention on the part of the Chinese, the NK would lose their most of their major cities to occupation within two months. Within five months the last of their forces will have surrendered to American or South Korean forces. The estimates for occupation and final surrender are, of course, approximate. They are really fairly optimistic for the NK. The first estimate, I believe, is reasonably accurate.

[Sea Skimmer]

The North Korean attack would be crushed within 5 miles of the boarder. They have no fuel for there tanks or aircraft, and there mass of artillery and infantry is going anywhere without a lot of fuel guzzling trucks to support them.


Think the Somme, only the Germans also have a huge mine field and 500 multiple rocket launchers loaded with cluster bomblets .

The worst damage would be to Seoul. The attack is going to bog down in about 30 minutes, and after that the 2000 odd guns that can reach the city wont have much to do but expend all the ammo they have stock piled, artillery ammo is the only thing they have enough of, but they cant move it if the guns displace forward.

[EmperorChrostas the Cruel]

One if the reasons that the USA was not a signator of the global treaty banning the use of land mines was, well, we have fuckloads of them between north and south Korea! So much for the armored assault! Unlike the USA, NK doesn't have extensive anti mine capaciteies, like we demonstrated in Desert Storm. We have since upgraded all systems in both quatity, and quality. Desert Storm was the mother of all field tests! Solviet equipment did so poorly, sales dropped more than 30%! NK does not have nukes. We have inspected their facilites, as a precurser to making a deal. You drop your civilian and military nuclear program, and we ship you food. The almost went for it. They wanted way too much money and food. So we said fuck 'em, let them eat their weapons. Communists are shitty deal makers.
Only the bad case of gradiousity, with liars syndrome, (Tell a lie enough, and YOU start to believe your own bullshit) made the deal fall through.
Have any of you actualy been to Korea? I have. The terrain is strikingly similar to the hills of southern California, which is why the 7th ID was stationed at Fort Ord. (Planet Ord is what we called it!) There are paths flat enough to put arored colums through, but this has not escaped the military planners in the are. These paths are well within airstrike range, and well out of artillary range, of at least 3 BIG air bases.
The ROC regular are every bit as tough as our marines!
I speak from personel experience. The NCOs are allowed to beat on the troops when they fuck up, and Tae Quan Do is the most popular sport in the country. By the time they make it to NCO status, they are bad mo foes!
They are also highly motivated, as they see how well they live compaired to most of their asian counterparts, and are fighting for the lives and freedom of their loved ones. They would get hurt, and take serious losses, but technology has only increased the whammy per man ratio to a level known only to those who have dished it out, or taken it. (with a few well read exeptions)
My prediction:
The initial advance stalls in the first 12 hours, due to heavy mine and airpower losses, then then counter attack begins. Slaughter. 30/40,000 dead ROCs and civvies, because of surprise, and then the butcher's bill comes due! NK is so heavily millitarised, we would kill millions.Perhaps as much as 30% of their entire population.
For those of you that think taking a 40,000 man loss is a big blow to take on the chin, I would remind you it is only the population of a medium sized Korean city. One city, one country.

[Darth Cirrocu]

Lemme put it this way

Ever seen the gobale wind patters?

No?

Well I'll say it this way then, Guess where all the Fall-out form the Nukes Lands after destroying Tiawan

China you say?
Good guess

This time of year, with the subtropical ridge where it's at, sure. But in winter, the wind patterns are a wee bit different.

As for a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, here's the deal:

1. The term would be "air supremacy." The USAF and ROKAF would sweep the skies of all DPRKAF combat assets.

2. Before that happened, however, would come the, oh, several thousand artillery pieces and eight North Korean infantry divisions. There's a nickname for many of the Army installations up along the DMZ: "Speed Bumps." Oh, and chemical weapons would almost be guaranteed. Also, time of year would be a big factor. Do you think it's easier to move armor, vehicles, and troops across frozen ground or flooded rice paddies?

3. The comments about North Korean SOF are absolutely correct. Any invasion would start with a whole fleet of AN-2s dropping SOF soldiers around US/ROK installations to disrupt operations. And then there are all those "sleeper" agents already in place.

4. US game plan? For the first several days hunker down and try to generate as many sorties as possible in between the ground attacks, artillery assaults, and other such nonsense. Let the North Koreans take Seoul, bring in reinforcements, and then drive them back.

A US/ROK victory would be inevitable, albeit at a heavy cost. It wouldn't be like the Gulf War, it would be bloody and difficult.

[weemadando]

If it was any time but the Bush presidency I would say that by the time that extra troops were commited, Seoul would be besieged if not already taken. With the Bush presidency, as horrible as this sounds, Pyong Yang (spelling?) and other NK cities will be glass parking lots in no time what so ever.

[Sea Skimmer]

This time of year, with the subtropical ridge where it's at, sure. But in winter, the wind patterns are a wee bit different.

As for a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, here's the deal:

1. The term would be "air supremacy." The USAF and ROKAF would sweep the skies of all DPRKAF combat assets.

2. Before that happened, however, would come the, oh, several thousand artillery pieces and eight North Korean infantry divisions. There's a nickname for many of the Army installations up along the DMZ: "Speed Bumps." Oh, and chemical weapons would almost be guaranteed. Also, time of year would be a big factor. Do you think it's easier to move armor, vehicles, and troops across frozen ground or flooded rice paddies?

3. The comments about North Korean SOF are absolutely correct. Any invasion would start with a whole fleet of AN-2s dropping SOF soldiers around US/ROK installations to disrupt operations. And then there are all those "sleeper" agents already in place.

4. US game plan? For the first several days hunker down and try to generate as many sorties as possible in between the ground attacks, artillery assaults, and other such nonsense. Let the North Koreans take Seoul, bring in reinforcements, and then drive them back.

A US/ROK victory would be inevitable, albeit at a heavy cost. It wouldn't be like the Gulf War, it would be bloody and difficult.

[1] Unlikely, beyound a few regiments commited to opening strike, mosto f htere planes wont fly. Instead they will sit in hardened shelters and soak up counter air missions.

Lucky the JDAM makes killing those shelters much simpler and faster

[2] Closer to 10,000 assorted weapon in fact, and about 27 divisions. However they dont have fuel to move there guns forward, they face about nine Corps artillery brigades plus organic divisional stuff and a half dozen division on the front line, with a similer number behind them.

Yes chmeical weapons cerintly will make life hell for the defenders, for about 18 hours. Then the first B-61s arrive from the states.

[3] The AN-2 threat has been greatly reduced by the introduction of infared trackers at a number of key bases and forward points. The end effetivenes of such attacks is not going to be very great.

[4] Seoul is not going to fall. The best the North Koreans could ever do, and the only thing there likely to aim for is to bring the city within 122mm range. Then they can use the threat of its distruction as a bargining chip.

Problume is, without a huge amount of fuel, they will never get even that. WW1 showed quite clearly how effective the kind of attack North Korea can launch can be.

The Somme is going to be a good guide to NK losses, but the second German drive in there 1918 offensive is a better indication of how far they will get, 5-10 miles in 20 days. The Defences are similer in scope and depth, though the terrian along the DMZ is much better for the defender then the Flanders.



And its spelled Pyongyang. Its also not a likely nuke target. More likely is B-61 mod 11 earth pentrators used against the norths hardened logistics bases.

[XPViking]

Lemme put it this way

Ever seen the gobale wind patters?

No?

Well I'll say it this way then, Guess where all the Fall-out form the Nukes Lands after destroying Tiawan

China you say?
Good guess - Mr Bean

Hence, why I said

I would think that such a course of action would tend to defeat the purpose of China wanting to reunite that "renegade" province Taiwan.

Here's another question though. Would the Chinese really care about "global wind patterns"? After all, it would depend who the leader is at the time.

XPViking

[XPViking]

Emperor,

Did you serve with the US Army over in Korea? It sounds like you have inside knowledge of the South Korean military. Perhaps you can clarify something for me. I've heard that the Korean military hands out black belts in Tae Kwon Do like candy. Is that true? Or are some of the black belt holders actaully worthy of the rank?

XPViking

[Stuart Mackey]

Emperor,

Did you serve with the US Army over in Korea? It sounds like you have inside knowledge of the South Korean military. Perhaps you can clarify something for me. I've heard that the Korean military hands out black belts in Tae Kwon Do like candy. Is that true? Or are some of the black belt holders actaully worthy of the rank?

XPViking

I wouldent overestimate the utility of Tae Quan Do in any army. Ever try any of those high kicks in army boots after a day in a IFV, or after a day carrying half your body weight or more? Standard TKD is a sport and should be treated as such.

[TrailerParkJawa]

I think the ROK can handle the NK's with little or no US assistance. North Korea is sort of a post Cold War boogey man.

South Koreas military is well trained and equipped. If China joined sides with the North Koreans then US assistance would be required.