Was Tarkin ACTUALLY cocky? Or was it realistic?

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2006-03-09 07:42pm

When you think about it the Battle of Yavin was handled with all the tactical skill of a Starfleet officer. Let's examine it more closely.

The objectives of the Mission to Yavin was to destroy the rebellion.

Yet the rebels could have left at any time. Yes I am well aware that they did not have time to completely evacuate but Dodonna, Leia and the leadership could have fled without any problem as the DS didn't arrive at Yavin for some time after the arrival of Luke & Co.

The Rebels could have escaped with their fighting equipment at any time. X-Wings and support craft simply hyper away leaving behind heavy equipment (that the rebels abandoned at Hoth as well) and some personnel. Are we seriously going to contend that the rebels could not have evacuated their personnel in time? Even in the face of the approaching deathstar? There was no fighter CAP screen flying out with the DS to intercept escaping craft so up until the DS fires rebels could have been hypering off Yavin.

In fact I'm pretty sure the rebels had about the same amount of time to evacuate Yavin as they did Hoth. The rebellion survived Hoth so an evcuation of Yavin would have only hurt but not killed the rebellion furthermore you can argue it would have hurt the rebellion less since there was no planetary blockade in place as in Hoth to shoot down escaping rebel ships. More assets and people would have escaped at Yavin than in Hoth.

Evacuation issues aside all Tarkin had to do to eliminate the rebel threat was launch 3-4 squadrons with Vader and intercept the rebel fighters well outside the magnetic field. If the fighters can't get to the surface there is no threat to the DS.

Yavin was a disaster from its inception. Only because the rebels were stupid enough to stay where they were made it an important battle.

Cos Dashit · Post by **Cos Dashit** » 2006-03-09 08:19pm

Cykeisme wrote:The Rebel assault was more desperate than some people make it out to be. Their odds were indeed slim.

They couldn't be sure they would make it all the way to the Death Star surface without interception, and then down the trench, and to the exhaust port.. and here's the kicker. Even there, a pilot doubted that the port could be hit even with the computer operating at full effectiveness. This problem was exacerbated by the fact that the heavy jamming had further reduced the accuracy of the targeting computer.
The Rebels were simply playing the odds. They couldn't evacuate the moon in time, so that was their only hope.

Batman mentioned that they must have known about the jamming from the technical readouts, and figured they could overcome it. They couldn't, based on the novelization descriptions of the jamming effects. In addition, from the readouts, they also knew that the Death Star might launch thousands of TIE Fighters to stop their three dozen.

The Alliance was simply playing their only card, no matter how bad the chances were. Fortunately for them, the Force lets you cheat when it comes to luck.

This reinforces my argument that whether or not the Rebels thought they had a chance was irrelevent at the time. It didn't matter what they thought, it was their only choice.

Cos Dashit · Post by **Cos Dashit** » 2006-03-09 08:25pm

Stravo wrote:The Rebels could have escaped with their fighting equipment at any time. X-Wings and support craft simply hyper away leaving behind heavy equipment (that the rebels abandoned at Hoth as well) and some personnel. Are we seriously going to contend that the rebels could not have evacuated their personnel in time? Even in the face of the approaching deathstar? There was no fighter CAP screen flying out with the DS to intercept escaping craft so up until the DS fires rebels could have been hypering off Yavin.

If they would have evacuated, and left the majority of their equipment on the planet, it would have been a good-sized loss. As to my opinion on leaving some personnel on the planet, well, the Rebels needed everyone they could get. They let a farm-boy go on their final stand.

Besides, evacuation would be temporary, the Empire would have just found them again, lather, rinse, repeat. They grabbed at this incredibly slim opportunity because it was really the only logical one, their best chance to defeat the Empire's greatest weapon.

So it was their only real choice.

Knife · Post by **Knife** » 2006-03-09 09:06pm

Cos Dashit wrote:
Stravo wrote:The Rebels could have escaped with their fighting equipment at any time. X-Wings and support craft simply hyper away leaving behind heavy equipment (that the rebels abandoned at Hoth as well) and some personnel. Are we seriously going to contend that the rebels could not have evacuated their personnel in time? Even in the face of the approaching deathstar? There was no fighter CAP screen flying out with the DS to intercept escaping craft so up until the DS fires rebels could have been hypering off Yavin.
If they would have evacuated, and left the majority of their equipment on the planet, it would have been a good-sized loss. As to my opinion on leaving some personnel on the planet, well, the Rebels needed everyone they could get. They let a farm-boy go on their final stand.

Besides, evacuation would be temporary, the Empire would have just found them again, lather, rinse, repeat. They grabbed at this incredibly slim opportunity because it was really the only logical one, their best chance to defeat the Empire's greatest weapon.

So it was their only real choice.

Not really, they had the tech readout of the station, they could have organized a better plan and attacked with a better force than they were 'forced to' on Yavin. What heavy equipment would they have left behind? They had about two squadrons of fighters at Yavin and personel. If there was some sort of huge supply cache, it wasn't shown, nor was any sort of huge defense infrastructure like on Hoth.

Cos Dashit · Post by **Cos Dashit** » 2006-03-09 09:52pm

Knife wrote:Not really, they had the tech readout of the station, they could have organized a better plan and attacked with a better force than they were 'forced to' on Yavin. What heavy equipment would they have left behind? They had about two squadrons of fighters at Yavin and personel. If there was some sort of huge supply cache, it wasn't shown, nor was any sort of huge defense infrastructure like on Hoth.

Some heavy equipment I can think of is all of their machinery, et cetera, that they have in their base. They wouldn't bother loading all of it up in the ship, and it might take a while to re-acquire the same stuff. For the Rebels, anyway.

Noble Ire · Post by **Noble Ire** » 2006-03-09 10:22pm

Cos Dashit wrote:
Knife wrote:Not really, they had the tech readout of the station, they could have organized a better plan and attacked with a better force than they were 'forced to' on Yavin. What heavy equipment would they have left behind? They had about two squadrons of fighters at Yavin and personel. If there was some sort of huge supply cache, it wasn't shown, nor was any sort of huge defense infrastructure like on Hoth.
Some heavy equipment I can think of is all of their machinery, et cetera, that they have in their base. They wouldn't bother loading all of it up in the ship, and it might take a while to re-acquire the same stuff. For the Rebels, anyway.

The OT:ITW shows that the Alliance modified the interior of the Massassi grand temple (along with at least inhabiting a few other, smaller ziggurats) extensively, and had a significant amount hardware, like comm systems and weapons emplacements, installed both inside it, and on its surface. However, I would guess the main reason why they figured immediate evacuation was in impossible was because, even if they could remove the fighter squadrons and the command staff, virtually all of the rest of the troops there, which I would guess numbered in the several thousands, would have been abandoned. The base's main Gallofree transports seem to all be tucked away deep with the temple's deepest sub-basement, presumably for protection from enemy bombers and orbital detection; I can only assume actually loading and launching the things wasn't feazible in the time alloted, which was what, 30 minutes tops?

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2006-03-09 10:44pm

Cos Dashit wrote:If they would have evacuated, and left the majority of their equipment on the planet, it would have been a good-sized loss.

Which, of course, would have been an insurmountable disaster. Good thing that never happened to them on Hoth.

However, I would guess the main reason why they figured immediate evacuation was in impossible was because, even if they could remove the fighter squadrons and the command staff, virtually all of the rest of the troops there, which I would guess numbered in the several thousands, would have been abandoned. The base's main Gallofree transports seem to all be tucked away deep with the temple's deepest sub-basement, presumably for protection from enemy bombers and orbital detection; I can only assume actually loading and launching the things wasn't feazible in the time alloted, which was what, 30 minutes tops?

They had enough time to analyze the plans for a 160km battlestation and find a meter wide exhaust port on the surface. If the Rebels had their transports locked down so deeply that they couldn't launch them in that amount of time, knowing that with hyperspace the Empire could have had a fleet in the Yavin system within hours if it ever discovered the base's location, then that's just a different kind of idiocy.

Noble Ire · Post by **Noble Ire** » 2006-03-09 10:58pm

They had enough time to analyze the plans for a 160km battlestation and find a meter wide exhaust port on the surface. If the Rebels had their transports locked down so deeply that they couldn't launch them in that amount of time, knowing that with hyperspace the Empire could have had a fleet in the Yavin system within hours if it ever discovered the base's location, then that's just a different kind of idiocy.

I'm assuming they didn't only start analyizing the plans after the Death Star appeared in-system. I haven't seen ANH for a long time, but I recall that Luke and Co. were on Yavin 4 for at least a few hours before the DS arrived (I don't think the period of time is ever stated), and its not like they were expecting it to show up on their doorstep.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2006-03-09 11:07pm

Noble Ire wrote:
They had enough time to analyze the plans for a 160km battlestation and find a meter wide exhaust port on the surface. If the Rebels had their transports locked down so deeply that they couldn't launch them in that amount of time, knowing that with hyperspace the Empire could have had a fleet in the Yavin system within hours if it ever discovered the base's location, then that's just a different kind of idiocy.
I'm assuming they didn't only start analyizing the plans after the Death Star appeared in-system. I haven't seen ANH for a long time, but I recall that Luke and Co. were on Yavin 4 for at least a few hours before the DS arrived (I don't think the period of time is ever stated), and its not like they were expecting it to show up on their doorstep.

They knew what the Death Star was capable of and they knew they'd deliberately let Milennium Falcon get away. If they couldn't figure out that they were likely to recieve a visit soon, that's ALSO stupid. Either they could evacuate immediately when the DS showed up and they refused, or they could evacuate if they started prepping several hours earlier and they refused, or they were incapable of evacuating even with several hours' notice because they buried their ships too far. No matter which it actually was, the Rebels were being dumb, and they only got away with it because (unknown to ANY of them), they happened to have a force sensitive pilot among them and Tarkin was too arrogant or too stupid to launch a fighter screen.

Isolder74 · Post by **Isolder74** » 2006-03-09 11:19pm

hyperdrive speed means that the Death Star will arrive in a matter of hours. they didn't have time to evacuate. On Hoth a delaying action is actually possible. We never see the Yavin defenses because the Death Star makes them a non issue

Attacking and destroying the Death Star is their only option. What other option do they have? They can't possibly evacuate everyone. There is not time for it

Knife · Post by **Knife** » 2006-03-09 11:38pm

Isolder74 wrote:hyperdrive speed means that the Death Star will arrive in a matter of hours. they didn't have time to evacuate. On Hoth a delaying action is actually possible. We never see the Yavin defenses because the Death Star makes them a non issue

Attacking and destroying the Death Star is their only option. What other option do they have? They can't possibly evacuate everyone. There is not time for it

Again, why isn't there time for it? The MF come in, straight from the DS with Leia, straight from the DS's prison, why not haul balls then?

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2006-03-09 11:44pm

Isolder74 wrote:hyperdrive speed means that the Death Star will arrive in a matter of hours. they didn't have time to evacuate. On Hoth a delaying action is actually possible.

The only reason it was possible is because Vader trying to capture Luke Skywalker. Without that, the Death Squadron could have BDZ'd the planet in 15 minutes.

We never see the Yavin defenses because the Death Star makes them a non issue

So does the firepower of an imperial fleet. Unless Yavin had a full planetary shield, the Empire can smash everything on the surface in minutes with or without a Death Star. The rebels had to know this, and they still were unprepared to get everyone they could on a ship out of there on short notice.

There really are two possible options here: either the Rebels decided to make a Brave Last Stand at Yavin and bet everything on the attack succeding (placing the future of their cause and freedom itself in jeopardy for the sake of bravado), or they were counting on their little clubhouse remaining undiscovered and weren't ready to haul ass when an Imperial attack came on a few hours' notice, let alone the much shorter notice they'd get if the attack were a complete surprise.

Attacking and destroying the Death Star is their only option. What other option do they have? They can't possibly evacuate everyone. There is not time for it

So instead they make no attempt to evacuate at all?

Isolder74 · Post by **Isolder74** » 2006-03-09 11:45pm

Knife wrote:
Isolder74 wrote:hyperdrive speed means that the Death Star will arrive in a matter of hours. they didn't have time to evacuate. On Hoth a delaying action is actually possible. We never see the Yavin defenses because the Death Star makes them a non issue

Attacking and destroying the Death Star is their only option. What other option do they have? They can't possibly evacuate everyone. There is not time for it
(bold mine)

Again, why isn't there time for it? The MF come in, straight from the DS with Leia, straight from the DS's prison, why not haul balls then?

I'll send you to Hill Air Force Base and see if you can evacuate all the personel as well as vital supplies in less then 24 hours. You may only use the vehicles on the base at the moment.

I don't think you can pull it off.

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2006-03-09 11:45pm

Isolder74 wrote:hyperdrive speed means that the Death Star will arrive in a matter of hours. they didn't have time to evacuate. On Hoth a delaying action is actually possible. We never see the Yavin defenses because the Death Star makes them a non issue

Attacking and destroying the Death Star is their only option. What other option do they have? They can't possibly evacuate everyone. There is not time for it

The novelization indicates a time frame of almost a day between Luke's arrival and the DS arrival. Luke was training on an X-Wing simulator and scored the highest they had ever seen before they even get to the briefings and the like.

Plus WEG fluff states that Dodonna spent all night looking at the battle station plans before seeing the weakness and coming up with the attack plan.

At most they had a day, at least they had hours in the plural before the DS arrives. At Hoth the time frame was a few hours and they managed to evacuate everything but the heavy equipment under an Imperial blockade. No such blockade existed at Yavin.

The rebels had free reign to evacuate at the very least key personnel and the Fighter squadrons. Its a litle ridiculous to believe that transports are buried in such a way that they can't be pulled out in a few hours in particular considering the rebellion's policy of pulling out at the merest hin t of Imperial danger (see Hoth where Riekeen ordered the evacuation as soon as the probe droid was discovered.)

Post by **Vympel** » 2006-03-10 03:17am

Stravo wrote: The novelization indicates a time frame of almost a day between Luke's arrival and the DS arrival. Luke was training on an X-Wing simulator and scored the highest they had ever seen before they even get to the briefings and the like.

Not in my novelization, I just checked. It was a matter of hours only. "This will be a day long remembered ..." from Vader, remember?

At Hoth the time frame was a few hours and they managed to evacuate everything but the heavy equipment under an Imperial blockade. No such blockade existed at Yavin.

The blockade is a red herring- the Imperial fleet in orbit wouldn't somehow affect their speed in preparing their equipment for evacuation. Also, we have no solid evidence what the time fame for the evacuation of Hoth was. We also know that the Rebellion had only been established on Hoth for a month. It stands to reason they hadn't put as many or as deep roots down, and for all we know the Rebels probably never expected to conduct a hasty evacuation of Yavin like they did Hoth. Judging from the Yavin base, the Rebels had spent much longer there- the novelization and OT:ITW makes that clear.

The rebels had free reign to evacuate at the very least key personnel and the Fighter squadrons.

I notice above that you assume that the entire Rebel leadership is present on Yavin- there's no reason to believe that's the case. Their fleet was obviously not present, and the only key personnel we know of who are in attendance is General Dodonna, who needless to say, is commanding the attack on the Death Star. And why evacuate the fighter squadrons? The Rebels didn't attack the Death Star because they had no choice. They chose to, because the Death Star spelled doom for the Rebellion otherwise, and they all knew it. The 2nd Death Star presented the same danger.

Zac Naloen · Post by **Zac Naloen** » 2006-03-10 06:40am

They were obviously suffering from the fog of war or the falcon wouldn't have been able to sneak up on them.. you can't tell me Vader wasn't surprised.

I've always taken that as the force not wanting Luke to die yet, influencing Han to go back and disguising his presence from vader. Quite simply at that point in time the force was not with vader.

Whats that quote from futurama?

"If you do it right, no one will know you did anything at all"

Crazedwraith · Post by **Crazedwraith** » 2006-03-10 08:04am

Vympel wrote:[
We also know that the Rebellion had only been established on Hoth for a month. .

Whats your source on that? Wraith Squadron indicated they were at least a year on Hoth.

Post by **Vympel** » 2006-03-10 08:34am

Crazedwraith wrote:
Whats your source on that? Wraith Squadron indicated they were at least a year on Hoth.

TESB novelization:

The Rebel Alliance had established an outpost on the ice world little more than a month before.

Rationaization, it took them a year to prepare the base, and it was only commissioned a month prior.

Incidentally, OT: ITW says two years to prepare the base.

Eframepilot · Post by **Eframepilot** » 2006-03-10 11:00am

Biggest stupidity of the entire Yavin scenario: Leia's. She knew they were being tailed, yet she gave Han the exact coordinates of Yavin instead of, oh I don't know, looking for the tracking device or making contact with the Rebels in some other system.

You could argue that Leia believed the Death Star could be destroyed with the help of the plans, but that's an arrogance that surpasses Tarkin.

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2006-03-10 11:15am

When one thinks about it, how is the Alliance dead if they don't confront the DS at Yavin? Wouldn't it have made more sense to take more time analyzing the plans? Perhaps setting up internal sabotage of the station? You know smuggle some weapons on board and plant explosives near the main reactor? Is it any less dangeorus or difficult than sneaking onto a moon and destroying an energy field guarded by troops in the shadow of an Imperial fleet?

More to the point, the rebels if they are a true insurrection won't ever be a sitting target. They will always be on the move, scatter their assets make themselves impossible to decaptitate in a single battel. The moment the deathstar is on the move they simply get out of the way. They all but vanished into the Outer Rim after ANH and it took the EMpire until ESB to find them again. The rebels have a vast galaxy to hide in and the death star is a slow ass weapon. They will always have time to get out of the way before it arrives.

As an example look at the Iraqi insurgents. When the Army or Marines are on the move they don't stand and fight, they vanish into the crowd. Any time they did fight was usually to cover a large scale retreat (falluajah) and we saw an almost exact parallel of Fallujah at Hoth where rebel militray assets fought to hold off the Imperial assault long enough to evacuate.

The Deathstar is far more of a danger to established governments in the Core as demonstrated by Alderaan's destruction than a highly mobile and scattered Rebellion leadership.

There was no reason to stand and fight at Yavin especially with a one in a million shot as your only way of victory and how the hell did they know that Tarkin wouldn't launch fighters? Why in god's name would you send two squadons against a vessel that is carryting thousands of squadrons?

Lukedanieljames · Post by **Lukedanieljames** » 2006-03-10 02:53pm

After reading this entire thread I have to come to the conclusion that Tarkin was not over-confident. He ran the campaign, but he was not the guy setting up the defenses for the station. Much like a General in the army of today, he says where they go and at what time, but its his subordinates that decide where to put the machine gun implacements, and bunkers. Tarkin said "we're doing this" and his staff should have taken care of the rest. He makes the big decision, scrambling fighters, making sure the turbo lasers create crossfire, etc etc, all this is done without his supervision.

And when his officer came up and said "We've analysed their attack zone, there is a danger, shall I have your ship standing by?"

Tarkin obviously looked at the same plans the rebels did, he knows their is a weakness, but he THOUGHT that his idiot staff would send out more fighters and more turbo laser cover.

Its like a General saying "defend this bridge" and he has 10 tanks, 40 Gi's and a few heavy machine guns, and an idiot officer runs in and says "Sir, one of their guys is target YOUR TENT with a shotgun" the general is going to HOPE AND ASSUME that his men out there are going to blast them to hell, a kilometer before they get anywhere near his tent. Tarkin had every right to be confident, his staff failed him. NOw what I just said is a bit different than what I said initially, but after reading the thread, sleeping on it, his staff are idiots, not him.

Lukedanieljames · Post by **Lukedanieljames** » 2006-03-10 02:55pm

Stravo wrote:When one thinks about it, how is the Alliance dead if they don't confront the DS at Yavin? Wouldn't it have made more sense to take more time analyzing the plans? Perhaps setting up internal sabotage of the station? You know smuggle some weapons on board and plant explosives near the main reactor? Is it any less dangeorus or difficult than sneaking onto a moon and destroying an energy field guarded by troops in the shadow of an Imperial fleet?

More to the point, the rebels if they are a true insurrection won't ever be a sitting target. They will always be on the move, scatter their assets make themselves impossible to decaptitate in a single battel. The moment the deathstar is on the move they simply get out of the way. They all but vanished into the Outer Rim after ANH and it took the EMpire until ESB to find them again. The rebels have a vast galaxy to hide in and the death star is a slow ass weapon. They will always have time to get out of the way before it arrives.

As an example look at the Iraqi insurgents. When the Army or Marines are on the move they don't stand and fight, they vanish into the crowd. Any time they did fight was usually to cover a large scale retreat (falluajah) and we saw an almost exact parallel of Fallujah at Hoth where rebel militray assets fought to hold off the Imperial assault long enough to evacuate.

The Deathstar is far more of a danger to established governments in the Core as demonstrated by Alderaan's destruction than a highly mobile and scattered Rebellion leadership.

There was no reason to stand and fight at Yavin especially with a one in a million shot as your only way of victory and how the hell did they know that Tarkin wouldn't launch fighters? Why in god's name would you send two squadons against a vessel that is carryting thousands of squadrons?

Keep in mind that the senate was JUST collapsed, maybe it was then that the rebels knew it was do or die, put it all on the line at that point, maybe it had something to do with the senate collapse.

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2006-03-10 04:52pm

For whatever reason, it was evident that the Rebels could not simply evacuate Yavin-D. The fact that they stood and fought with certain death staring them in their faces demonstrates this. It was either kill the Death Star or wind up as ashes and rubble.

As to why Tarkin did not put up whole fighter wings, either the Death Star did not then have its full complement of squadrons (the battlestation was still on its shakedown trials), or it quite simply boils down to there being no rational reason to scramble his entire airforce when a sector group can be launched if needed —and his only opposition was coming from three squadrons of snub-fighters.

I don't think the Iraqi insurgency is an applicable parallel to the Rebellion just on consideration of the sheer scale of spatial territory involved. Guerillas scattered over the expanse of an entire galaxy aren't going to be able to mount an effective revolutionary movement to overthrow an imperial government and one willing to apply utterly ruthless means to maintain itself in power. A terresterial insurgent movement threatens an occupation army because while scattered it nevertheless can dispute the occupier's control of the country and does so within the boundaries of a single country.

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2006-03-10 05:01pm

Patrick Degan wrote:As to why Tarkin did not put up whole fighter wings, either the Death Star did not then have its full complement of squadrons (the battlestation was still on its shakedown trials), or it quite simply boils down to there being no rational reason to scramble his entire airforce when a sector group can be launched if needed —and his only opposition was coming from three squadrons of snub-fighters.

He doesn't have to scramble the whole thing. 100 TIE fighters would have repulsed the attack--Vader's outnumbered squadron alone decimated the Rebels. And regardless of whether or not the rebels COULD evacuate Yavin, there was no way for Tarkin to know in advance. Having fighters up to prevent escapees is standard procedure for BDZ operations, I don't see why it shouldn't be standard procedure for the Death Star, as well. If they didn't have enough fighters to do it on their own, he could have called for support from the rest of the fleet--one ISD should have been sufficient.

Cos Dashit · Post by **Cos Dashit** » 2006-03-10 05:12pm

Stravo wrote:Plus WEG fluff states that Dodonna spent all night looking at the battle station plans before seeing the weakness and coming up with the attack plan.

Vympel wrote:Not in my novelization, I just checked. It was a matter of hours only. "This will be a day long remembered ..." from Vader, remember?

The same day for the Death Star could be all night on Yavin. "Days" are relative, especially in space.