Future geology: Niagara Falls falling toward Canada

[dr. what]

It's ours, damn it! All ours! Mwha-haa-haa!

It's North America's most spectacular expression of nature's power, and a symbol of the enduring friendship between two nations that share a border, a history and one thunderingly awesome tourist attraction.

But the United States, according to an innovative new study in futuristic geology, is going to lose its side of Niagara Falls, giving Canada -- if it still exists, that is -- a rock-solid hold on the honeymoon market -- of the next millennium.

The predicted demise of the American Falls in about 1,000 years is just one of the intriguing forecasts highlighted by University of Wisconsin scientist Steven Dutch in a paper titled The Earth Has a Future, published in the latest edition of the academic journal Geosphere.

Other predictions with a Canadian connection include:

- the disintegration a few centuries from now of the Titanic wreck off the coast of Newfoundland;

- a 14.7-kilometre northward shift of the Arctic Circle, due to Earth's changing tilt over the next millennium;

- and the dramatic shrinking of the country's most identifying physical feature, Hudson Bay, as its shallow seabottom continues rebounding from the last Ice Age -- at a glacial pace to untrained eyes, but with the speed of a trampoline in geological terms.

"A futurist approach can serve to correct some common misconceptions," writes Mr. Dutch, who is urging fellow researchers to adopt a new way of "visualizing geologic time" to broaden a branch of science now focused squarely on the planet's past.

"We can fail to realize that geologic features are a snapshot of processes that were highly dynamic and changeable," Mr. Dutch argues. "Our inability to see ourselves as part of a continuum of processes that will continue into the future is also directly linked to our shortsightedness in managing our environment."

He adds that contrary to the view that "all geologic changes are slow and imperceptible," many observable changes "take place even on the scale of a human lifetime, and even more significant changes have occurred during the span of recorded history."

He also notes that "there are practical applications for long-term geological prediction. Most geohazard projections need to forecast only a few decades or centuries into the future, but geological storage of high-level nuclear waste requires estimates of geological stability on scales ranging up to a million years."

Synthesizing decades of research by geologists and engineers from around the world, Mr. Dutch says, "There is a very good chance that the Old Faithful geyser will no longer exist in 1,000 years" and that "large steel-frame structures, such as the Eiffel Tower, Golden Gate Bridge, or Empire State Building, could be expected to survive 1,000 years only with careful maintenance.

"Because iron and steel corrode quickly in seawater, the revered wrecks of the Titanic and the Arizona should have mostly crumbled away.... With its hollow construction, we can safely assume that the Statue of Liberty, shown half buried on the seashore at the climax of the original Planet of the Apes, would not survive any lengthy period of natural battering."

Mr. Dutch notes that he was still working on the paper as hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast, underscoring the fragility of human settlement along the ever-shifting Mississippi River system.

"The Mississippi River is already overdue for a change in course," he says, and over a period of thousands of years the "Mississippi Delta will probably have changed location 10 to 20 times."

Planet-shaking events such as extinction-scale meteorite strikes, catastrophic volcanic eruptions and other events "that are rare or unknown in recorded history become almost inevitable, even frequent, in the near geologic future."

But some human-made structures, he says, could survive for many millennia -- even if the human race itself ceased to exist. Traces of the U.S. president-emblazoned Mount Rushmore, for example, could long outlast western civilization, along with some of its lesser achievements, such as the world's largest open-pit mines and landfill sites.

"It is ironic that one of the human structures most likely to endure for a million years is also one of the oldest: the Pyramids," Mr. Dutch writes. "However, the Pyramids largely owe their preservation to an arid climate.... If the climate of Egypt becomes much less arid during the next million years, even the Pyramids might be largely destroyed."

Closer to home, the incessant centimetre-by-centimetre retreat of Niagara Falls will add up to hundreds of metres over the next 10 centuries, Mr. Dutch says. When the Canadian Falls finally recede past Goat Island -- the rock that currently splits the course of the Niagara River and creates two separate, 50-metre cascades -- "the American Falls will cease to exist, and there will only be a single falls."

However, in another 50,000 years or so, Mr. Dutch says, the Falls will have retreated all the way back to Buffalo, causing Lake Erie to drain rapidly down a freshly cut gorge and into Lake Ontario.

[Metatwaddle]

They're predicting something that'll happen in only 1,000 years? I thought such "short" lengths of time were sort of out of the realm of geology. Does that mean that the falls are currently shifting towards Canada very dramatically and fast (geologically speaking)? And if so, why haven't any geologists noticed it before?

[dr. what]

They're predicting something that'll happen in only 1,000 years? I thought such "short" lengths of time were sort of out of the realm of geology. Does that mean that the falls are currently shifting towards Canada very dramatically and fast (geologically speaking)? And if so, why haven't any geologists noticed it before?

Er....they've known about it for decades. It actually use to be eroding faster years ago than it is now.

Before large water-diversion projects were built in the 1950s and 1960s, Horseshoe Falls was receding at a rate of more than 1 m (3 ft) per year. With reduced flows slowing erosion, it will take about 30 years for the falls to recede the distance it once did in a year.

http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761 ... fall).html

[aerius]

And in about 7000-10,000 years there won't be a waterfall on the Niagara river because of the way the rocks are layered. At the current falls location there's a hard layer of limestone on top of softer dolomite, so the water goes over the lip and undercuts the softer rock, giving the falls. When the falls recede far enough, the layers reverse and the falls will degenerate into rapids.

[Magnetic]

This is why the earth is only 6,000 years old. If it were billions of years old, . . . the falls would have been already well into Canada by now.

Yeah, . . . I heard that one before.

[CaptainChewbacca]

One interesting note in the development of the Falls: While they were eroding, there was a period in which several miles were eroded in a matter of DAYS when the river broke into a suite of very soft rock.

[aerius]

One interesting note in the development of the Falls: While they were eroding, there was a period in which several miles were eroded in a matter of DAYS when the river broke into a suite of very soft rock.

Actually it hit a previously eroded gorge which had been filled in by glaciers, the river just flushed out all the dirt and rock. This would be at the big whirlpool where the river takes a 90° turn.

[CaptainChewbacca]

One interesting note in the development of the Falls: While they were eroding, there was a period in which several miles were eroded in a matter of DAYS when the river broke into a suite of very soft rock.

Actually it hit a previously eroded gorge which had been filled in by glaciers, the river just flushed out all the dirt and rock. This would be at the big whirlpool where the river takes a 90° turn.

Right, thank you. This was covered in one lecture 3 years ago, and there's been alot of rocks since then

[Solauren]

Considering HORSESHOE Falls is the big tourist attracition, not that pissy little falls in the states that ride our coat-tails, I could care less

(wicked grin)

[Andrew J.]

The American side sucks anyway. Good riddance.

[The Silence and I]

Never tried Goat Island? If all you intend to do is look at the falls, then the American side is lackluster, but Goat Island is much nicer than standing among huge crowds of tourists on concrete IMO. Three Sisters are lovely too, and you can get right up against the water--there are places you can safely get wet even. Try it if you haven't, I recommend it strongly.