Thanks, Nova!

[Darth Wong]

Thanks to Nova Andromeda for suggesting this forum. In retrospect, it seems like an obvious inclusion.

Here's some mind ticklers for ya:

1) A legitimate scientific study shows that people who live near electrical power transmission lines have a higher risk of cancer than the general population. Its authors conclude that the magnetic fields from electrical power transmission lines cause cancer. What's wrong with this logic?

2) A bright light is seen on a home video taken from someone's backyard at night. The light moves in a manner which is impossible for any known aircraft, darting up to the right and then abruptly stopping and then zooming left out of sight, at speeds which scale to many times the speed of sound. The cameraman concludes that therefore, it must be some kind of alien spacecraft with fantastic technology far beyond our own. What's wrong with his logic?

I wish I could promise cash and prizes to the first person who gets the answer right, but .. I'm cheap. All you get is bragging rights.

[IDMR]

Ohhhh! Me, me!

I won't answer the logic for now, it's getting late here, but:

1: A specific subset of people live near powerlines.

2: Umm, it could have been a flashlight?

[Rob Wilson]

Thanks to Nova Andromeda for suggesting this forum. In retrospect, it seems like an obvious inclusion.

Here's some mind ticklers for ya:

1) A legitimate scientific study shows that people who live near electrical power transmission lines have a higher risk of cancer than the general population. Its authors conclude that the magnetic fields from electrical power transmission lines cause cancer. What's wrong with this logic?

2) A bright light is seen on a home video taken from someone's backyard at night. The light moves in a manner which is impossible for any known aircraft, darting up to the right and then abruptly stopping and then zooming left out of sight, at speeds which scale to many times the speed of sound. The cameraman concludes that therefore, it must be some kind of alien spacecraft with fantastic technology far beyond our own. What's wrong with his logic?

I wish I could promise cash and prizes to the first person who gets the answer right, but .. I'm cheap. All you get is bragging rights.

1) the sample group is far too small and doesn't include anybody else for comparisons.

2) The light could be bugs wings reflecting and instead of being 5 miles away in the sky are infact 5 feet away and so the scaling is reduced to shit.

Can I have a lollipop please?

[LMSx]

If it was moving that fast, wouldn't the cameraman be hearing some sort of sonic boom?

It seems to support Rob's theory.

[Rob Wilson]

If it was moving that fast, wouldn't the cameraman be hearing some sort of sonic boom?

It seems to support Rob's theory.

Go to Randi.Org and all will be clear.... no wait, I mean.. I thought of them all on my own, really... Oh Bugger!

[BlueExcalibur]

1) I'd have to guess they didn't use a large enough group.
2) Could be problems with the tape. Or bugs.

[Rob Wilson]

Ohhhh! Me, me!

I won't answer the logic for now, it's getting late here, but:

1: A specific subset of people live near powerlines.

Yep, Cancer victims are required by law to live within a 200 m radius of Powerlines.

[Darth Wong]

You guys have basically got the second question down right. If we see an object moving in what seems to be an impossible fashion, the logical conclusion is that we are seeing an optical illusion (or a firefly), particularly when there is no sonic boom (why, oh why do they insist on playing these idiotic videos on TV and proclaiming them as evidence for UFO visitation?).

As for the first question, you've given the most obvious answer, but the real problem with the idea is that they assume that electrical power transmission lines are the only source of magnetic fields. This is where their argument falls apart completely. The power lines inside your house produce magnetic fields too, and since magnetic field strength drops off with the square of distance, the magnetic field from the power line running through your wall (behind your head as you watch TV) is orders of magnitude stronger than the magnetic field coming from the transmission lines in a nearby field. If there's a correlation, it obviously can't be due to magnetic fields.

[Darth Wong]

Forgot to mention: you can actually pick apart the logic in those arguments in a lot more detail if you have time, but those are the biggest weaknesses.

[Rob Wilson]

You guys have basically got the second question down right. If we see an object moving in what seems to be an impossible fashion, the logical conclusion is that we are seeing an optical illusion (or a firefly), particularly when there is no sonic boom (why, oh why do they insist on playing these idiotic videos on TV and proclaiming them as evidence for UFO visitation?).

As for the first question, you've given the most obvious answer, but the real problem with the idea is that they assume that electrical power transmission lines are the only source of magnetic fields. This is where their argument falls apart completely. The power lines inside your house produce magnetic fields too, and since magnetic field strength drops off with the square of distance, the magnetic field from the power line running through your wall (behind your head as you watch TV) is orders of magnitude stronger than the magnetic field coming from the transmission lines in a nearby field. If there's a correlation, it obviously can't be due to magnetic fields.

Do I still get a Lollipop?


And the magnetic field from their Speakers (if they have a good audoi setup) would be even stronger... and In a car even stronger still plus nearer.

[IDMR]

Ohhhh! Me, me!

I won't answer the logic for now, it's getting late here, but:

1: A specific subset of people live near powerlines.

Yep, Cancer victims are required by law to live within a 200 m radius of Powerlines.

::Smiles weakly:: It was almost reflex... I did too much statistics for my own good.

[IDMR]

O, Lord Wong, thou gracest us with thy august presence.

Can we have something like this once per week? Different people can take turns to post a common brain bug, and we can than proceed to dissect the problem!

EDIT: On second thoughts, we are doing that already.

[kojikun]

Late though this may be, said it must.

1: Powerlines are everywhere, magnetism is everywhere, therefore the study is incorrect in blaming powerlines.

2: The guy's arm is unsteady :p

[Howedar]

I live near high-voltage lines, and so far I'm cancer free. Therefore, I have scientifically proven the lack of corellation. Hurrah for Dr. Howedar the scientist!

(hopefully people can tell I'm kidding, but I wouldn't bet on it)

[Eldritch Storm]

I live near high-voltage lines, and so far I'm cancer free. Therefore, I have scientifically proven the lack of corellation. Hurrah for Dr. Howedar the scientist!

(hopefully people can tell I'm kidding, but I wouldn't bet on it)

Heh. I used to swim in the Hudson river, and look at me! Healthy as an Ethiopian Child..er...Normal Person.

[Nova Andromeda]

In both mind ticklers I would have attacked the problem in a different manner than the methods used in the replies I've seen so far. The conclusions in both mind ticklers involve leaps of logic which I find the most frustrating since I see it all day long.

In the first mind tickler higher cancer rates are cooralated with proximity to powers lines and the authers conclude it is the magnetic feilds of the power lines that cause cancer. However, there are many characteristics of power lines and proximity to them. They have not shown that the specific characteristic of magnetism is the cause of the coorelation. It could be that construction of the power lines polluted the land and that is the characteristic of proximity to power lines that causes cancer. It may. however, be any number of other things i can think of.

The second mind tickler has the same basic flaw in logic. There are many things that might cause a bright spot to move in a home video and that have nothing to do with light being reflected from a spacecraft at a distance.

The lesson here is that to conclude B you must show that A can ONLY lead to B. If A can lead to B, C, and/or D you must then make observation X such that A + X can only lead to B. If you cannot do this you cannot conclude that A leads to B.

[lancer omega]

I not sure about power lines, seem with that line of research, any thing can be proven to cause cancer ( i.e Cell phones, wheat germ, etc) The best thing to do is exposure a brunch of lab rats, and see what happens....

But as for the light in the sky.. I sure that a lot of poeple see alot of funny things in the skys and I for the most parts hold little faith in them, yet I must admit that while in the Navy, I ( and a ship full of crewmate) saw one of those strange object you are talking about. It was about 100 yards away at a height of 20 ft and it then descent into the ocean. pictures where taken ( and later all cameras where taken by the guys from naval intelligents) there were alot of jokes about the Seaview ( maybe I am dating my self) and flying subs..

I later saw the same ufo in an article from popular science on unexplain ufo encounters, but in this case the saucer was seem by a brunch of scientist and naval personnel from Chile.. and their pictures were clear.. Sooo maybe the rest of those photo are on the up and up.

[Darth Wong]

UFO's are an interesting object lesson in bad logic. Let's suppose you see something which is close enough that you can hear it and be sure that it's a large hovering artificial craft of some sort, rather than a firefly or an optical illusion (mind you, this instantly excludes the vast majority of UFO footage), and then it flies away. Do you conclude that this is an alien spacecraft? If someone said it's probably a hoax or a military experiment, would you dismiss that as a cover-up? Let's consider the two alternatives:

1) Requires extra-terrestrial beings who have the technology to violate the laws of physics as we understand them and exceed the speed of light, to come all the way here from many light years away and do ... nothing, except make a few interesting lights in the sky.

2) Requires human dishonesty (a given), secret military projects (known to exist).

Why would anyone in his right mind dismiss #2 in favour of #1? #1 is a spectacular violation of Occam's Razor; it requires extra terms which are not only implausible but as far as we know, physically impossible. #2 requires only that which we already know to exist: human dishonesty and military secret projects.

Moreover, the implicit assumption behind those who would support #1 (that things which seem impossible may not be) also supports #2 (if it's actually possible to build weird hovering aircraft, then maybe our military is already working on it). Once again, #2 explains any unexplained phenomenon or observed aircraft better than #1.

Occam's Razor. Enemy of UFO-ologists everywhere.

[Lord Woodlouse]

Apparently the US did create a UFO-looking vehicle, but it was kinda lame. I think it only hovered about three or four feet and moved about as fast as a guy on a bicycle.

If the US truely built one of these things, I can see WHY they covered it up.

[Guest]

That's the thing that gets me about UFO sightings. Say I'm an alien astronaut and I've encountered Earth. My immediate impression would be that I'm looking at a barely post-nuclear civilization that just taking it's first baby steps off it's planet. Now, I might want to talk to them. But how? Well, as an alien astronaut, I'm already no doubt aware that they've been broadcasting radio waves into space for some time. I don't need to understand what is being said on them to determine that information is being carried over them. In fact, that might be how I became aware of them in the first place. So what do I do? Well, if UFO-logists are to be believed, it's to make my ship do a little dance for some yokels in the sticks (but not in a urban area where hundreds of people would see it), turn soe of their cattle inside-out, and graffiti on their wheat fields, rather than use their obvious medium of communication. Makes perfect sense to me.

[Gil Hamilton]

The above message from Guest is me, I didn't log in.

[Mr Bean]

Then there is the classic example

Its Alien Yokles doing it for fun to scare the poor back-words hut people on Earth

(If you had a Spaceship caple of Excedning C and the Free time you know you want to do it to somone )

[Rob Wilson]

Then there is the classic example

Its Alien Yokles doing it for fun to scare the poor back-words hut people on Earth

(If you had a Spaceship caple of Excedning C and the Free time you know you want to do it to somone )

Someones been reading Terror Firma.

[Rob Wilson]

The above message from Guest is me, I didn't log in.

You realise that by owning upto that message, you have forever excluded yourself from joining that exhalted band of Genuises, the Ufologists.... Well done that man.

[Mr Bean]

Heh heh and no I have not

Somthing I always though since I was six talking to my friend watching one of those UFO docs they run every once in awhile on PBS my friend all of 7 said

If I had a space ship I used to to scare people!!