Scientist publishes 'escape route' from global warming

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theski
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Scientist publishes 'escape route' from global warming

Post by theski »

Interesting read..
Nobel Prize-winning scientist has drawn up an emergency plan to save the world from global warming, by altering the chemical makeup of Earth's upper atmosphere. Professor Paul Crutzen, who won a Nobel Prize in 1995 for his work on the hole in the ozone layer, believes that political attempts to limit man-made greenhouse gases are so pitiful that a radical contingency plan is needed.

In a polemical scientific essay to be published in the August issue of the journal Climate Change, he says that an "escape route" is needed if global warming begins to run out of control.

Professor Crutzen has proposed a method of artificially cooling the global climate by releasing particles of sulphur in the upper atmosphere, which would reflect sunlight and heat back into space. The controversial proposal is being taken seriously by scientists because Professor Crutzen has a proven track record in atmospheric research.

A fleet of high-altitude balloons could be used to scatter the sulphur high overhead, or it could even be fired into the atmosphere using heavy artillery shells, said Professor Crutzen, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany.

The effect of scattering sulphate particles in the atmosphere would be to increase the reflectance, or "albedo", of the Earth, which should cause an overall cooling effect.

Such "geo-engineering" of the climate has been suggested before, but Professor Crutzen goes much further by drawing up a detailed model of how it can be done, the timescales involved, and the costs.

In his forthcoming scientific paper, Professor Crutzen emphasises that the best way of averting global climate disaster is for countries to cut back significantly on their emissions of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide produced by burning oil, gas and coal. But in the absence of such measures, and with the average global temperature expected to rise more than 3C this century, there may soon come a time when more extreme measures have to be considered, he said.

"If sizeable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will not happen and temperatures rise rapidly, then climatic engineering, as presented here, is the only option available to rapidly reduce temperature rises and counteract other climatic effects," Professor Crutzen said.

"Such a modification could also be stopped on short notice, if undesirable and unforeseen side-effects become apparent, which would allow the atmosphere to return to its prior state within a few years," he said.

Such an idea is so controversial that some scientists opposed its publication in the peer-reviewed scientific press, fearing that it may encourage the view that it is easier to treat the symptoms rather than the causes of climate change.

Professor Crutzen, however, argues that the "grossly disappointing" international political response to the necessity of cuts in greenhouse gas emissions means that it should no longer be considered taboo to think about geo-engineering of the climate.
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Post by Acidburns »

Ironic that we're now seriously considering what amounts to terraforming Earth of all things.
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Post by Darth Wong »

It's not something which should be dismissed out of hand. As he quite correctly points out, the political will is simply not there to reduce these emissions.

Besides, the idea of literally shooting down global warming should definitely appeal to Americans. If you tell Americans that they can solve global warming with huge cannons firing special sulphur deposition shells into the upper atmosphere, they'll be on board before the ink dries on the proposal.

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Post by Prozac the Robert »

It's a bit worrying though, because we still don't understand the atmosphere completely. It would be far safer to stop fucking the climate now than to attempt to balance everything out artificially.

It's worth thinking about though, since it may be needed later, and the more we work on it before that the better. But it shouldn't be plan A any time soon.

On top of that, it could still turn out to be more expensive than a full implementation of Kyoto, especially if we needed to keep tinkering with things.
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Post by Lost Soal »

Wouldn't dumping a shit load of sulphur lead to an increase in acid rain, or would the altitude help prevent that?
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Post by Zero »

This is going to make the liberals think they have a bunch of leeway in global warming efforts, which might be bad. Even if it does help in curbing the heating effect, wouldn't there be some other nasty effects of actually obscuring sunlight in the upper atmosphere? Is it possible for this to effect photosynthesis in plants?
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Post by King Kong »

Lost Soal wrote:Wouldn't dumping a shit load of sulphur lead to an increase in acid rain, or would the altitude help prevent that?
I think they're designing the compound for minimal toxic effects.
Rest of the article wrote:"It may be possible to manufacture a special gas that is only processed photochemically in the stratosphere to yield sulphate," he said. Such a compound should be non-toxic, insoluble in water, non-reactive, and have a relatively short half-life of about 10 years.
Zero wrote:Even if it does help in curbing the heating effect, wouldn't there be some other nasty effects of actually obscuring sunlight in the upper atmosphere? Is it possible for this to effect photosynthesis in plants?
Rest of the article wrote:His plan is modelled partly on the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991, when thousands of tons of sulphur were ejected into the atmosphere causing global temperatures to fall.

Pinatubo generated sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere which cooled the Earth by 0.5C on average in the following year. The sulphate particles did this by acting like tiny mirrors, preventing a portion of incoming sunlight from reaching the ground.
It will certainly affect photosynthesis in plants, since you're increasing the amount of sunlight that gets reflected back into space rather than reaching the ground and being used by plants.

It sounds like they are modeling this after an intense volcanic eruption necessary to cause a sufficient drop in global temperature (without all of the other nasty effects). The last time a similar event occurred, it was due to a huge eruption of the Indonesian volcano Toba approximately 75,000 years ago, causing a ~5 Celsius drop in global temperature. Some people think that this eruption led to a dramatic decline in human population, but I don't think a similarly destructive result would result from this program in our modern world. The worst possible outcome that I can see from this is a large (a few Celsius), unexpected drop in global temperatures leading to reduced crop yields and widespread famine in developing countries. We would certainly have to be very careful in altering the atmosphere and be prepared to assist people hurt by a drop in the global temperature. However, unchecked global warming will have similar, if not more destructive effects, so I believe this idea is certainly worth pursuing.
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Post by Molyneux »

It's always good to have a contingency plan; I don't know about the qualifications of this guy, but an idea of what to do if it all goes bugfuck is better than just hoping.
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Post by Isolder74 »

Why not just place bombs in active volcanoes and save the money? :roll:
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Post by RedImperator »

Darth Wong wrote:It's not something which should be dismissed out of hand. As he quite correctly points out, the political will is simply not there to reduce these emissions.

Besides, the idea of literally shooting down global warming should definitely appeal to Americans. If you tell Americans that they can solve global warming with huge cannons firing special sulphur deposition shells into the upper atmosphere, they'll be on board before the ink dries on the proposal.

Conservation? Fuck no. Giant cannons? Hell yeah!
The American in me agrees that giant cannons firing thousands of tons of sulfur into the atmosphere is completely awesome.
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Post by Zero »

If the process of photosynthesis in plants is being hindered, couldn't the effects be slightly counteracted by the decreased CO2 intake from plantlife?
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Post by Mayabird »

Another indirect effect of volcanic eruptions spewing sulfur into the atmosphere is the suppression of methanogens in wetlands by sulfate-reducers. The cooling effects of volcanic eruptions are extended longer than the particles stay suspended in the air because of the drop in methane production, as methane is also a powerful greenhouse gas.

Article about the eruption of Laki in 1783
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Post by wolveraptor »

If we don't have the political will to stop releasing tons upon tons of greenhouse gases into the air, why should we have the political will to dump tons and tons of money onto the governments of developing nations to counteract the inevitable famine when crops die from a deficiency in sunlight caused by the increased albedo? Especially since rich 1st world governments will need to support their own people as well.

We'd have to implement this process with the utmost care, and it would still be safer to enforce Kyoto Treaty protocols now.
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Darth Wong wrote:It's not something which should be dismissed out of hand. As he quite correctly points out, the political will is simply not there to reduce these emissions.

Besides, the idea of literally shooting down global warming should definitely appeal to Americans. If you tell Americans that they can solve global warming with huge cannons firing special sulphur deposition shells into the upper atmosphere, they'll be on board before the ink dries on the proposal.

Conservation? Fuck no. Giant cannons? Hell yeah!
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wolveraptor wrote:If we don't have the political will to stop releasing tons upon tons of greenhouse gases into the air, why should we have the political will to dump tons and tons of money onto the governments of developing nations to counteract the inevitable famine when crops die from a deficiency in sunlight caused by the increased albedo? Especially since rich 1st world governments will need to support their own people as well.

We'd have to implement this process with the utmost care, and it would still be safer to enforce Kyoto Treaty protocols now.
You are assuming that developed countries would actually give a crap about the third world. We hardly care now even with all the problems they have, and if the first world is in trouble, it'd just be tough shit for them.

I can see people getting behind a quick-fix mega-project like this. It's easy to get the political will together for shiny quick-fixes. It's much harder for long-term problems like poverty, education, global warming, and so on.
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Post by wolveraptor »

You are assuming that developed countries would actually give a crap about the third world. We hardly care now even with all the problems they have, and if the first world is in trouble, it'd just be tough shit for them.
That's my point. We wouldn't have the political will for that kind of self-sacrifice.
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Post by Mayabird »

wolveraptor wrote:
You are assuming that developed countries would actually give a crap about the third world. We hardly care now even with all the problems they have, and if the first world is in trouble, it'd just be tough shit for them.
That's my point. We wouldn't have the political will for that kind of
What do you mean, "self-sacrifice"? Do people today consider it self-sacrifice to let children in Africa starve? I'm saying that when the coasts start flooding and harvests get poorer even in rich countries, politicians in those countries could easily whip up support for making big guns to shoot the problem (especially here), and the rest of the world be damned.
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Post by wolveraptor »

What do you mean, "self-sacrifice"? Do people today consider it self-sacrifice to let children in Africa starve?
What the fuck are you talking about? People lack the political will to help others when they themselves are in considerable shit, meaning that if they screw up this sulfur-release process and the albedo gets too high, they aren't going to be willing to give generously to poorer countries whose crops are failing when their own crops aren't doing too well. I don't even blame them.
I'm saying that when the coasts start flooding and harvests get poorer even in rich countries, politicians in those countries could easily whip up support for making big guns to shoot the problem (especially here), and the rest of the world be damned.
I don't disagree with any of that.
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Post by Shinova »

Isn't this sulphur solution just going to prolong the cycle?

They cool down the earth with sulphur. Political and industrial elements in the world are convinced their problems are over and ramp up emissions. The world gets hotter. They pump more suplhur into the atmosphere. Wouldn't something break somewhere in that cycle sometime in the future?
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Post by Zero »

Shinova wrote:Isn't this sulphur solution just going to prolong the cycle?

They cool down the earth with sulphur. Political and industrial elements in the world are convinced their problems are over and ramp up emissions. The world gets hotter. They pump more suplhur into the atmosphere. Wouldn't something break somewhere in that cycle sometime in the future?
Eh.. eventually, won't we hit peak oil and stop releasing CO2 into the atmosphere?
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Post by Shinova »

Zero wrote: Eh.. eventually, won't we hit peak oil and stop releasing CO2 into the atmosphere?
Perhaps. Though there's always coal, and that we still use lots of it for electricity instead of nuclear and other stuff.
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Post by J »

Zero wrote:Eh.. eventually, won't we hit peak oil and stop releasing CO2 into the atmosphere?
If oil were the only major source of CO2, then yes, the amount being released into the atmosphere will decline significantly after peak oil is reached. However oil isn't the only major source of CO2, there's also natural gas & coal, and the latter isn't going to run out anytime soon.
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Post by Boyish-Tigerlilly »

Well Zero, some of the CO2 pollution might stop due to that, but I was reading a NASA report, and I will post it again here (I just need to look up the URL again) that stated humans cause a lot of CO2 and harmful emissions via agricultural biomass burning as well.
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Post by Mayabird »

Sorry, wolveraptor, I finally figured out what you were saying. I thought you were saying that we wouldn't have the political will for self-sacrifice to save ourselves, which doesn't really make sense. Then it finally occured to me that you're actually saying that we don't have the will to sacrifice ourselves to save the developing world. And that's true, but the fact that we won't give a damn about anyone else wouldn't be the thing that would stop the project if it was to go through, which was my point. So again, sorry about the misunderstanding.
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Post by wolveraptor »

Mayabird wrote:Sorry, wolveraptor, I finally figured out what you were saying. I thought you were saying that we wouldn't have the political will for self-sacrifice to save ourselves, which doesn't really make sense. Then it finally occured to me that you're actually saying that we don't have the will to sacrifice ourselves to save the developing world. And that's true, but the fact that we won't give a damn about anyone else wouldn't be the thing that would stop the project if it was to go through, which was my point. So again, sorry about the misunderstanding.
Yeah, I guess I should've been a little clearer.
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