The odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field

Galvatron · Post by **Galvatron** » 2006-10-01 10:30pm

~3,720 to 1?

Does that apply to all asteroid fields or just the insanely violent one in the Hoth system?

Threepio's statement implies the former.

Morilore · Post by **Morilore** » 2006-10-01 10:34pm

Maybe he was just spouting out extremely long odds in the vain hope that Han would reconsider his apparently suicidal course of action.

EDIT: Obviously, what I mean here is that he pulled that number out of his ass.

Isolder74 · Post by **Isolder74** » 2006-10-01 11:12pm

He may have 'calculated' the odds off navigating this asteroid field.

He may also be upping the odds bacause he is freaked out. Threepeo is not exactally a run of the mill droid. YOu have to consider this is the same droid that freaked out when Han parked the Falcon onto an Imperial Star Destroyer. So much so that they has to turn him off.

So his number may not actually that reliable.

Spanky The Dolphin · Post by **Spanky The Dolphin** » 2006-10-01 11:19pm

It could be an general, galaxy-wide avarage statistic based on information from an organisation like BoSS or insurance companies.

Something like that could be loosely related to protocol, I guess.

Post by **Surlethe** » 2006-10-02 01:11am

Well, if the solar system's asteroid field is any indicator of your typical galactic field, I'd say the odds are much better than 3720:1. I think he was talking about that particular field, though I've no idea how he arrived at the number.

Bounty · Post by **Bounty** » 2006-10-02 04:03am

I doubt he calculated the odds himself without knowing the exact density and size of the field or the capabilities of the ship. 3720:1 is probably a general statistic based on a variety of ships that have deliberately or accidentally tried to pass through a field over the years - small, agile ships like the Falcon can make it through and would bring the number down, but large passenger liners for example would get puréed.

Covenant · Post by **Covenant** » 2006-10-02 04:27am

Most asteroid fields are not clogged with rocks like we see in the Hoth field, so I'd consider it to be a fairly amazingly violent asteroid field by any estimate. I'm going to guess that Threepio, not actually being a real genius when it comes to technology, was mostly just talking out of his ass. It's not as if he's incapable of error or lying, and his healthy sense of self-preservation could probably drive whatever calculation centers he has to come up with some insane figure like that.

Or it's also possible that Threepio had some experience with the rebel command sorts long enough to be informed about the defensive properties of the Asteroid field. Possibly overhearing such a thing as, "Imperial Landing Craft? I think that's unlikely--why, the chances of getting through the Hoth field were calculated at 3270 to 1!"

Fingolfin_Noldor · Post by **Fingolfin_Noldor** » 2006-10-02 04:36am

The only possibility that such an asteroid field should exist is if only if substantial gravitational disturbances exist, such as those that affect the Jupiter moon Io.

But, the local space has long had its fair share of energetic meteorite collisions, and that is proven by the fact that asteroids can actually deorbit from their position and possibly hit Earth.

The Original Nex · Post by **The Original Nex** » 2006-10-02 02:25pm

I would support the idea that he more or less pulled the number out of his ass. After all he does have self preservation programming, and if his masters are doing something that computes as suicidal for them and himself, he would likely lie to stop that from happening.

Stofsk · Post by **Stofsk** » 2006-10-02 03:15pm

Galvatron wrote:~3,720 to 1?

Does that apply to all asteroid fields or just the insanely violent one in the Hoth system?

Threepio's statement implies the former.

Does it? I think it's been covered before that the asteroid belt in the Hoth system was atypical, at least to our understanding (where our belt is vastly more dispersed in comparison).

Galvatron · Post by **Galvatron** » 2006-10-02 03:22pm

Yes, but Threepio was speaking in generalities. He said "an asteroid field," not "this asteroid field."

Stofsk · Post by **Stofsk** » 2006-10-02 03:25pm

True, but why would any run of the mill asteroid field have such high odds for safe navigation?

Galvatron · Post by **Galvatron** » 2006-10-02 03:39pm

That's what I'd like to know.

Isolder74 · Post by **Isolder74** » 2006-10-02 03:41pm

He might have been the odds of navigating one in hyperspace....

Galvatron · Post by **Galvatron** » 2006-10-02 03:51pm

Right after telling Han that the hyperdrive motivator had been damaged and that it was impossible to go to lightspeed?

Isolder74 · Post by **Isolder74** » 2006-10-02 03:53pm

Galvatron wrote:Right after telling Han that the hyperdrive motivator had been damaged and that it was impossible to go to lightspeed?

He's finding a way to lie with out lying. I know it is stretching a bit.

Stofsk · Post by **Stofsk** » 2006-10-02 03:58pm

Galvatron wrote:That's what I'd like to know.

You and me both, man.

Isolder74 wrote:
Galvatron wrote:Right after telling Han that the hyperdrive motivator had been damaged and that it was impossible to go to lightspeed?
He's finding a way to lie with out lying. I know it is stretching a bit.

Any more stretching and you'd give Mr Fantastic a run for his money.

Noble Ire · Post by **Noble Ire** » 2006-10-02 07:11pm

Stofsk wrote:True, but why would any run of the mill asteroid field have such high odds for safe navigation?

Perhaps the Hoth field was one of a specific, unusual type of asteroid field, distinct from the more mundane variety, like our own. It is reasonable to assume that since the Hoth field exists as it does, for whatever reason, there would be others similar to it somewhere else in the galaxy (the Vergesso Asteroids, for example, as opposed to the tamer Roche field). Thus Threepio would have been calculating for that specific sub-group of phenomenon.

Of course, it would be rather out of character for him not to state as much in his warning...

RedImperator · Post by **RedImperator** » 2006-10-02 07:41pm

Or maybe 3PO was just in a panic and threw out a number. Since when is he Mr. Spock and expected to make accurate calculations (yes, yes, I know Spock was wrong many times) about things way outside his supposed area of expertise?

Noble Ire · Post by **Noble Ire** » 2006-10-02 07:49pm

RedImperator wrote:Or maybe 3PO was just in a panic and threw out a number. Since when is he Mr. Spock and expected to make accurate calculations (yes, yes, I know Spock was wrong many times) about things way outside his supposed area of expertise?

Yes, but he is, quite literally, a machine. I think it's far more likely C-3PO latched onto a random bit of trivia lodged somewhere in his 'brain' and spouted it out, rather than actually making up a number on the spot based on nothing at all.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2006-10-02 08:39pm

Galvatron wrote:Yes, but Threepio was speaking in generalities. He said "an asteroid field," not "this asteroid field."

Threepio's an idiot. There is absolutely no way to calculate a general probability for successfully navigating an asteroid field that would actually be applicable in any way to their current situation. Remember that later in this part of the movie, he would tell them that they should surrender because the Empire may be generous.

If one must assign some intelligible meaning to that number, one must assume that he misspoke in some way or other.

Darth Servo · Post by **Darth Servo** » 2006-10-02 09:13pm

It can't apply to any asteroid field since the chances of safely navagating a field is completely dependent on asteroid density and violence, each of which can vary greatly. Actually a real asteroid field would probably never be that dense due to diffusion and the vastness of space.

Darth Servo · Post by **Darth Servo** » 2006-10-02 09:15pm

Darth Wong wrote:Threepio's an idiot. There is absolutely no way to calculate a general probability for successfully navigating an asteroid field that would actually be applicable in any way to their current situation. Remember that later in this part of the movie, he would tell them that they should surrender because the Empire may be generous.

Not to mention admitting not knowing the difference between a power socket and a computer terminal.

Dangermouse · Post by **Dangermouse** » 2006-10-02 09:34pm

When I was little, I took it to mean those were the odds based on navigating through any asteroid field. And if you consider the special effects in the scene and how asteroids are constantly coming at the ship left and right, well, you can imagine my excitement when I learned that our solar system had an asteroid field.

And then my disappointment when I learned that our field was probably no where near as grand or densely packed.

Knife · Post by **Knife** » 2006-10-03 12:45am

Galvatron wrote:That's what I'd like to know.

Threepio was in the command center at least once on Hoth durring the movie when they picked up the Imperial probe droid. We know that Rieken though detecting ships in the system with all the asteroid activity would be difficult.

It's possible that Threepio saw enough information on the Hoth asteroid field from the rebel command center to pull an 'educated' guess out of his oil pan. Atleast something a conservative robot like himself would believe with the known nav data and his verison of safe flight.

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The odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field

The odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field

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