What will really happen during Peak Oil?

[Darth Wong]

Basically, build your lifeboats, cause we are fucked.

What "lifeboats"? If civilization utterly collapses, a billion dollars won't do any more good than a thousand, and if/when big agriculture collapses, natural farming won't be able to sustain us all.

Basically, get together with some people in your area to build a small-scale sustainable community which won't be affected too much by the coming collapse. For example, find some local farmers in your area so you all have food, setup small windmills, & solar panel arrays so you can live off the grid or better yet a stream or river that can be used for hydroelectric power. Find mechanics & fix-it guys who can make tools and keep the farmer's machinery running or learn the skills yourself. Work to build a small sustainable community which will survive and preserve most of our high-tech base when the rest of the country goes down the crapper. You & the small community gets a good chance to survive & maintain a reasonable standard of living while everyone else gets fucked over.

Large scale modern society which we grew up & live in will not be possible after the crash, but small pockets of modern society are survivable. Those little pockets are the "lifeboats", and it's entirely within our means to build them.

I think you're overstating the case here. Large cities existed before the fossil-fuel revolution and will persist afterwards, but not without major changes.

[Morilore]

D. Although depending where you live and how you live it might really be the end of everything. But as Wong said in another thread, it isn't like all our scientific knowledge will just vaporize. We will regress a lot, but not terminally so for our species. One of the things I'm really scared of (for my country) isn't war so much as that during the inevitable privations batshit fundamentalists or other such insane fanatics might use everyone's suffering to fuel a violent revolution that will drive America even further into the ground.

[His Divine Shadow]

This thread makes those survivalist crazies seem like not so crazy anymore.

Maybe it's time to dig a bunker and fill it with guns, ammo and canned food?

[haard]

I'd think C to D, but whadda I know?

Assuming we are not running out of fuel for nuclear plants as well, long-range transports seem to be what will be affected the most, no?

So for Sweden (if we can go the way of Finland regarding nuclear power), we'll have to fire back up our agriculture and chop down some forests (to make place for the farms), and traveling and goods from afar will become exotic again. For countries that have no way of sustaining their poulations food demand, things look bleak, I guess.

For the poor parts of Africa, well, at least they won't be swamped by subsidised(sp?) foodstuffs from the US and EU, so they might be better of if they can get their own food production running again.

Argentina will find it hard to export all that meat =)

Russia... will it even keep together? So damn big, that country.

[His Divine Shadow]

It's a good thing we're subsidizing our farming in the EU. Looks like we'll need as much of it as we can get in the future.

[aerius]

I think you're overstating the case here. Large cities existed before the fossil-fuel revolution and will persist afterwards, but not without major changes.

Cities will definitely continue to exist after the oil crunch, but as you say, there's going to be major changes. We're not completely screwed since Ontario has tons of prime farmland and our agriculture business ain't consolidated & mechanized as much as the US, plus we already have a good deal of nuclear & hydro power. But some cities such as Phoenix or Las Vegas are in pretty poor locations when it comes to resources & transportation of vital goods and they would be pretty much screwed.

Some cities will get off easy, others will see significant regression & shrinkage, and some will be complete write-offs. It all depends on where the city is, how important it is, and what's around it.

[haard]

It's a good thing we're subsidizing our farming in the EU. Looks like we'll need as much of it as we can get in the future.

Yeah, really good. For us that is. It kills people as well, but that's in Africa, so why should we care?

[haard]

It's a good thing we're subsidizing our farming in the EU. Looks like we'll need as much of it as we can get in the future.

Yeah, really good. For us that is. It kills people as well, but that's in Africa, so why should we care?

Ehrm. I went far off topic. I anybody wants to discuss subsidizing farming and protectionism, let's do that in another thread

[His Divine Shadow]

No, this is hingent upon the future and the problems that will arise from the oil "crunch".

So anyway. It's not like we can actually buy stuff from Africa in the long run since thats dependant on cheap fuel prices to transport the food from there to here, which we know is not going to last for ever so it is a good investment to make sure local production exists and works and is run by experienced people. Why would we trip our own feet that badly and disassembled our own means of food production given whats in store for us?

Maybe we should stop biulding our own nuclear powerplants too and import electricity from poorer countries like Estonia and other balkan countries, and russia too, they got it harder than us and we could help them out by buying power from them rather than making our own.

[haard]

Ah, but Europe and the US is producing far more food than they consume, so that's not a problem even if we cut tax funding for farmers. When it's down to producing as much as is consumed, the argument holds water.

Maybe we should stop biulding our own nuclear powerplants too and import electricity from poorer countries like Estonia and other balkan countries, and russia too, they got it harder than us and we could help them out by buying power from them rather than making our own.

I think the EU balkan and baltic countries would be a ebtter choice than Russia, since noone wants to be dependant on someone outside the club for energy. That being said, building plants in such areas might be a great idea, as long as transmission losses does not offset the lower cost of building and staffin the plants. After all, it'd be a win-win situation and show some real willing to cooperate in the union.

[Darth Wong]

If farming becomes a lot less mechanized, I think we'll find that we need all those illegal Mexican immigrants

[His Divine Shadow]

Ah, but Europe and the US is producing far more food than they consume, so that's not a problem even if we cut tax funding for farmers. When it's down to producing as much as is consumed, the argument holds water.

Maybe we should stop biulding our own nuclear powerplants too and import electricity from poorer countries like Estonia and other balkan countries, and russia too, they got it harder than us and we could help them out by buying power from them rather than making our own.

I think the EU balkan and baltic countries would be a ebtter choice than Russia, since noone wants to be dependant on someone outside the club for energy. That being said, building plants in such areas might be a great idea, as long as transmission losses does not offset the lower cost of building and staffin the plants. After all, it'd be a win-win situation and show some real willing to cooperate in the union.

Well at any rate all I didn't intend to speak either for or against EU farming subsidies(though I think member nations sohuld be allowed to decide if they want to internally subsidize their own farming), only that it's apparently a good thing in this context.

[Lord Zentei]

This thread makes those survivalist crazies seem like not so crazy anymore.

Maybe it's time to dig a bunker and fill it with guns, ammo and canned food?

No, they are still crazy. And damn you, I was going to use a line like that in the other thread.

[Spin Echo]

Norway should be fine. They're currently 99% reliant on hydroelectric power. There would be the concern, though, that fossil fuel starved countries would invade for the remaining oil. However, I suspect by the point the middle east starts going dry, the North Sea will be pretty much tapped out.

One of the things I've been wondering about is air travel and the loss of fossil fuels. Can we make jet fuel from something other than fossil fuels? A lack of long distance mobility would have a major impact on global society.

[Lord Zentei]

Norway should be fine. They're currently 99% reliant on hydroelectric power. There would be the concern, though, that fossil fuel starved countries would invade for the remaining oil. However, I suspect by the point the middle east starts going dry, the North Sea will be pretty much tapped out.

One of the things I've been wondering about is air travel and the loss of fossil fuels. Can we make jet fuel from something other than fossil fuels? A lack of long distance mobility would have a major impact on global society.

Yes: various forms of artificial oil can be distilled into kerosene. It can be used as a "battery", even assuming that it cannot be made to scale, profitably, and with net-energy gain (which is a pessimistic assumption).

[Darth Raptor]

I'm generally optimistic about the future, but given everything I've read recently, I'm probably somewhere between C and D. It's one of the trials our civilization must endure, because the changes inacted would never come about on their own. In the end, we'll all be better off, but that doesn't mean the transition will be painless. Far from it, in fact. We're extremely ill-prepared and my faith in relying on market forces alone is virtually nil.

[J]

Unless there's a miracle of world political leadership, we're looking at Option E with options F & H taking place in some parts of the world. The Middle East is one such battleground and it's arguable that the landgrabs for control have already started. Afghanistan also has strategic importance as it controls access to the Caspian Sea oil fields, and it's no surprise that a lot of interesting politicking is currently unfolding in the countries surrounding the Caspian Sea.

As a whole, Europe will fare better than North America, the old world cities are a lot more compact and easily navigable by means other than cars. They're also more energy conscious than we are and would adapt better to a shortage, it won't be as much of a shock to them.

The Mid East is done for, it will be the war ground for the new great game, its people will likely be exterminated or enslaved by the foreign powers seeking to control its oil. Anything up to the Shep Solution being applied to deny the oil to rival powers is possible.

[Stofsk]

Public transport here is being converted to run on plant oil and eventually hydrogen (there was a big ceremony the other day when a city's fleet of garbage trucks was refitted to run on the corn or something) and with the Greens gone the planned decommissioning of the nuclear reactors has been reversed, so I'm cautiously optimistic for my little corner of the world.

No shit? Merkel reversed that decision? I haven't heard anything about that, but I can well understand if it was 'kept quiet' so to speak.

[Stuart Mackey]

D-E
We are so reliant on oil and its byproducts its not funny; in short, its back to the 1940's.
NZ should be OK if we get our shit together on public transport,power generation and transmission. Older ways of doing things are still a living memory here, but the worlds economies going to be screwed.

I can see heavy investment in leather garments, sawn off shotties, early model Holden Camaroes in Australia. Blue Heeler dogs will be popular as pets there as well

[Spin Echo]

D-E
We are so reliant on oil and its byproducts its not funny; in short, its back to the 1940's.
NZ should be OK if we get our shit together on public transport,power generation and transmission. Older ways of doing things are still a living memory here, but the worlds economies going to be screwed.

I thought New Zealand was pretty good with in terms of its electrical production. Over half comes from hydroelectric and they're working to have wind provide 20% of the country's electricity. Project West Wind, the wind farm they're intending to put in near Windy Welly, is supposed to provide enough energy to power the greater Wellington metropolitan area. Of course, the Kiwi's will have to be weaned off their habit of driving everywhere.

[Bounty]

Public transport here is being converted to run on plant oil and eventually hydrogen (there was a big ceremony the other day when a city's fleet of garbage trucks was refitted to run on the corn or something) and with the Greens gone the planned decommissioning of the nuclear reactors has been reversed, so I'm cautiously optimistic for my little corner of the world.

No shit? Merkel reversed that decision? I haven't heard anything about that, but I can well understand if it was 'kept quiet' so to speak.

I bin kein Deutschlander, Australisches Schwein!

*ahem*

Sorry, Belgium. I don't know if it has been officially reversed yet, what with the summer break and all, but everyone *but* the Greens wants nuclear power back.

[Stuart Mackey]

D-E
We are so reliant on oil and its byproducts its not funny; in short, its back to the 1940's.
NZ should be OK if we get our shit together on public transport,power generation and transmission. Older ways of doing things are still a living memory here, but the worlds economies going to be screwed.

I thought New Zealand was pretty good with in terms of its electrical production. Over half comes from hydroelectric and they're working to have wind provide 20% of the country's electricity. Project West Wind, the wind farm they're intending to put in near Windy Welly, is supposed to provide enough energy to power the greater Wellington metropolitan area. Of course, the Kiwi's will have to be weaned off their habit of driving everywhere.

Ha! we are more or less at break even point and a really cold snap over winter nearly shorted the power grid. We would be ok if we get electric rail/trolly busses back however, and rail back out to the smaller towns so the farmers can get food into the cities.

[Winston Blake]

I voted D. The apocalypse wanking pisses me off, but OTOH I don't have much confidence in humanity's ability to work together. My general thinking is: people got through the Great Depression, I'm sure we'll stumble our way through energy shortages.

One note regarding the 'Oh noes all the good ores are gone! Technology shall never rise again!' argument, a nice answer I read somewhere is that future generations of barbarians don't need to build mines to obtain metal ores. There are huge concentrations of already-refined metal piled up in cities and skyscrapers, sitting there for the taking.

But yeah, economic hardship, maybe a depression, maybe a few wars.
*waves* See you on the other side of the end of the world, everybody.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

I voted D. The apocalypse wanking pisses me off, but OTOH I don't have much confidence in humanity's ability to work together. My general thinking is: people got through the Great Depression, I'm sure we'll stumble our way through energy shortages.

One note regarding the 'Oh noes all the good ores are gone! Technology shall never rise again!' argument, a nice answer I read somewhere is that future generations of barbarians don't need to build mines to obtain metal ores. There are huge concentrations of already-refined metal piled up in cities and skyscrapers, sitting there for the taking.

But yeah, economic hardship, maybe a depression, maybe a few wars.
*waves* See you on the other side of the end of the world, everybody.

Well, if civilization ever ends in some Mad Max post-apocalyptic scenario, sure, our future descendants will have a much easier time getting to metals than we did. Sure they may have be corroded, and sure, they'll probably have to do some diving to reclaim it on the account of global warming eventually swallowing up all the major urban centers on the coast, but it'll be there for the taking. You'll have to do some processing to recover it from its corroded state, and to get into a form they find useful, like, say, mining enough automobile ore and turning it into steamships and rifles, or something similarly silly. Provided the neo-barbarians can still read and understand the ancient texts, this shouldn't be a problem for them. At least, it shouldn't be a problem for them within their energy-generation capabilities. Especially since, in the Mad Max scenario, the most energy-generation they'd be able to produce is that which you can extract from burning wood. Maybe alcohol or the oil of dead whales can be substituted in some cases.

Though what I'd really like to know is why three people voted for the "Shep Solution . . . oh noes, we're all going to die!" scenario instead of something less drastic, like the neo-barbarism scenario?