Vampires mathematically Impossible

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Spin Echo
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Vampires mathematically Impossible

Post by Spin Echo »

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Professor sucks the life out of vampire tales
Math formula takes bite out of Dracula

If vampires truly existed, the last human being would have been sucked dry centuries ago and our fanged killers would have long starved to death, according to an American physics professor who uses science to debunk the existence of supernatural creatures.

In a newly published essay, Central Florida University professor Costas Efthimiou uses science and mathematics to dismiss a variety of creatures of the night, including vampires, ghosts and zombies.

To examine the plausibility of Dracula existing, Mr. Efthimiou supposed the first vampire was created on Jan. 1, 1600.

That was roughly the time when the creature of darkness first emerged in folklore.

He then used the mathematical concept of exponential growth to calculate how long it would take for vampires to overrun the living.

Forget turning to crosses and holy water, it turns out we wouldn't have stood a chance.

Assuming that every vampire feeds once a month and that each victim becomes a vampire, the professor calculated that humanity's 15th-century population of roughly 536 million would have all been transformed into vampires within 30 months.

The vampires, of course, would have subsequently starved to death, he said.

"I only used mild, cautious assumptions," he said. "In the movies, you can see that vampires eat all the time. Truth be told, vampires never stop eating."

Mr. Efthimiou said Hollywood is guilty of perpetuating supernatural folklore and myths that are scientifically improbable.

"There are many reasons why people believe in pseudo-science. One of the main reasons is that people want to believe in a world that is different than ours. Our world is quite boring. People can't accept reality, so they wany to believe in things that physicists know are impossible."

Typically, Hollywood ghosts -- as well as those spirits allegedly seen in eyewitness accounts -- also don't play by the rules of physics. The headless ghost of Anne Boleyn is said to wander the halls of Blickling Hall in England, but she's clearly never met Sir Isaac Newton.

According to Newton's laws of motion, ghosts shouldn't be able to walk like human beings as well as pass through walls. In order to walk around like Patrick Swayze in Ghost, an entity needs to exert force on the floor which exerts an equal and opposite force in return. However, that same force wouldn't allow a spirit to pass through walls.

"I show that the standard picture of ghosts is inconsistent," he said. "Ghosts can't have the ability to go through material objects like walls, yet walk around like us because they should also be falling straight through the floor.

"If they can go through walls, they're going to go through floors. If there are such as thing as ghosts, they'd be different than (what) people commonly imagine."

While Mr. Efthimiou enjoys poking holes in the supernatural, humanity better pray that Count Dracula isn't awakened this Halloween. Although the population of world is now 6.5 billion, the professor said it would only take 34 months for vampires to devour and overrun modern man.

"There are more of us, but it would still be a quick end."
Good to have that one cleared up. :D
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Post by Big Phil »

This assumes that the dead become vampires... if they don't become vampires then this equation goes out the window.
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Post by Spin Echo »

SancheztheWhaler wrote:This assumes that the dead become vampires... if they don't become vampires then this equation goes out the window.
True. I think he was assuming the traditional Eastern European vampire myth. If you consider the Ann Rice type of vampire, that someone has to drink blood from a vampire to become one, then the equation falls apart.
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Post by Lord Zentei »

Spin Echo wrote:
SancheztheWhaler wrote:This assumes that the dead become vampires... if they don't become vampires then this equation goes out the window.
True. I think he was assuming the traditional Eastern European vampire myth. If you consider the Ann Rice type of vampire, that someone has to drink blood from a vampire to become one, then the equation falls apart.
That one has to drink the blood of a vampire to become one was not a concept invented by Ann Rice. It was also to be found in Bram Stoker's original Dracula. And, I suspect he got it from more ancient tradition.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

I was expecting a biologist to kill this concept, instead it's a bloody glorified maths teacher. Bah.
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Post by Spin Echo »

Lord Zentei wrote: That one has to drink the blood of a vampire to become one was not a concept invented by Ann Rice. It was also to be found in Bram Stoker's original Dracula. And, I suspect he got it from more ancient tradition.
I figured Ann Rice wasn't the one who came up with the concept, but had forgotten Dracula was also feeding Mina his blood. :oops: I had thought he was just slowly sucking her dry. Been too long since I read the book.
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Post by Ford Prefect »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:I was expecting a biologist to kill this concept, instead it's a bloody glorified maths teacher. Bah.
Maths conquers all. It's an unstoppable force of nature and its coming for you. Honestly, it's not like we needed a biologist to tell us what's wrong with vampires. Sure, it would have been interesting to read, but the simple elegance of crushing the supernatural with mathematics appeals.
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Post by DocHorror »

I can't wait for how trigonometry shows that werwolves can't exist.
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Post by CaptJodan »

Unless I'm mistaken (and I don't think I am, but the article did mess up the order of the acronym, it's not CFU, it's UCF) that's my fucking school!

How bloody embarassing. The best article we can get published by some news agency is one disproving what we already know doesn't exist? Please tell me my tuition is going to something more useful than this.
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Post by Wyrm »

This argument is damn old. I read about it in, of all things, some vampire fanfiction. (The vampires there had vampirism being transmitted by drinking blood. Yes, a vampire in the story explained this.)
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Post by Lord of the Abyss »

SancheztheWhaler wrote:This assumes that the dead become vampires... if they don't become vampires then this equation goes out the window.
It also assumes that vampires always kill, and don't just take a little blood from a victim and move on.
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Post by Cos Dashit »

So is this the first guy to figure this out, or is he just the first one to actually care?

And it's spelled Anne Rice.
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Post by Setesh »

Admiral Valdemar wrote:I was expecting a biologist to kill this concept, instead it's a bloody glorified maths teacher. Bah.
They have, there is a book called "The science of Vampires" that was written much the same way as "the physics of star trek" was.

A. Here's why its impossible
B. Here's how it might work if it was
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Post by Molyneux »

Lord of the Abyss wrote:
SancheztheWhaler wrote:This assumes that the dead become vampires... if they don't become vampires then this equation goes out the window.
It also assumes that vampires always kill, and don't just take a little blood from a victim and move on.
Actually, it assumes that a vampire will kill one victim a month...that seems to be taken pretty much directly from Dracula, didn't he take a month killing Lucy?

Regardless of the mathematical accuracy or inaccuracy of it, it's a fun thought experiment.
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Post by Majin Gojira »

The Assumptions made aren't well thought out. They do not, apparently, account for predation done by the humans once they realize a vampire is in their midst--which is a corner stone in all vampire myths.

In other words--Vampires can arise even if there are no other vampires to make new ones.

Then there are the other supernatural predators that specifically hunt vampires in certain lores, and accidental deaths.

Also in the myths, the Vampires victims/attacks occur nightly, and they focus on a single victim (who slowly wastes away as though they had caught a disease) over a week or so--and they do not all turn into Vampires themselves when they die.

In short, the assumptions made just don't match the mythology.

And, for the record: Buffyverse vampires apparently make a stable ecosystem.
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Post by Solauren »

You also need to take into account Vampires are usually rather intelligent and some go to lenghts to avoid making spawn by destroying the body afterwards.

His math nicely dismisses the predatory animalistic vampires, but not more intelligent varities, or ones that can control there own population growth
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Post by Spetulhu »

Majin Gojira wrote:In short, the assumptions made just don't match the mythology. [/url]
I'd imagine vampires, if they existed, would be interested in controlling their own population. One vampire can feed on the whole town, two vampires makes that half and so on. Isn't that the reason Dracula kept only a few brides at his castle instead of whole legions of undead?
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Post by Molyneux »

Spetulhu wrote:
Majin Gojira wrote:In short, the assumptions made just don't match the mythology. [/url]
I'd imagine vampires, if they existed, would be interested in controlling their own population. One vampire can feed on the whole town, two vampires makes that half and so on. Isn't that the reason Dracula kept only a few brides at his castle instead of whole legions of undead?
To paraphrase Pratchett - the ideal world for a vampire is one in which all other vampires have been destroyed, and no-one believes that vampires exist.
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Re: Vampires mathematically Impossible

Post by Lord Zentei »

Mr. Efthimiou said Hollywood is guilty of perpetuating supernatural folklore and myths that are scientifically improbable.

"There are many reasons why people believe in pseudo-science. One of the main reasons is that people want to believe in a world that is different than ours. Our world is quite boring. People can't accept reality, so they wany to believe in things that physicists know are impossible."
OH ZOUNDS!!! Hollywood is making movies about stuff that doesn't exist! STOP THE PRESSES!!! :o

And of course, a little escapist fantasy (and, persumably sci-fi) is "perpetuating myths".

While I agree that presenting your myths in a way that is misleadingly suggestive that they are plausible (such as Star Trek) this is frankly a bit silly.
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Post by brianeyci »

It is paraphrased. I have a hard time believing a mathematics professor would make such broad sweeping strokes like a moron. It might have gone like this.

"What is your opinion of the influence of Hollywood on the belief of supernatural?"

"Oh, it's part of it certainly, but--"

Reporter : "Extra, extra, Professor blames Hollywood for Psuedoscience!"

Or even something more insidious.

"Why do you think people believe in psuedoscience?"

"There are many reasons why people believe in pseudoscience. One of the main reasons is--"

And so on.
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Post by Darth Wong »

Hollywood does promote certain things pretty heavily, though. It's not hard to show that Hollywood is extremely hostile to scientists in general. The only scientists who are well-treated in Hollywood are the ones who don't act like scientists. Roguish "mavericks" who "play by their own rules" and "aren't afraid to speak out against the establishment" dsepite lacking any real evidence (but don't worry, they'll always be shown to be right anyway).

In Hollywood, there is nothing more narrow-minded than a scientist who insists on seeing evidence. That asshole in a typical Hollywood movie is almost always depicted as being more dogmatic than any religious preacher could ever be.
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Post by Majin Gojira »

Which is why all of my spec scripts so far have positive scientits and skeptics--because we need them desperately.
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Post by Spin Echo »

brianeyci wrote:It is paraphrased. I have a hard time believing a mathematics professor would make such broad sweeping strokes like a moron. It might have gone like this.

"What is your opinion of the influence of Hollywood on the belief of supernatural?"

"Oh, it's part of it certainly, but--"

Reporter : "Extra, extra, Professor blames Hollywood for Psuedoscience!"

Or even something more insidious.

"Why do you think people believe in psuedoscience?"

"There are many reasons why people believe in pseudoscience. One of the main reasons is--"

And so on.
I'll second that opinion. It's why I've come to hate talking to the press. They always like to selectively quote you, never to the point where they actually change what you're saying, but they distort your meaning and emphasis nevertheless.

I could completely believe that the "vampires being mathematically impossible" was just a 30 second example in a discussion on pseudoscience. The reporter then decided that a detailed analysis of why people believe in pseudoscience wasn't interesting to the masses and made the vampire angle the main bit of the story instead.
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Post by B5B7 »

Majin Gojira made some points that I wished to make. His Jossverse link has some actual maths in it, whereas the Costas Efthimiou quoted article doesn't really contain mathematics, just some uncorrelated numbers. He apparently is a physicist.

Apart from the points raised, there is also basic principles of predation - that prey must significantly outnumber predator numbers [as in the book "Why Big Fierce Animals are Rare" by Paul Colinvaux].
One could apply similar arguments as those in the article to tigers, and they are certainly real.

One can't simply apply the concept of exponential growth without taking real world facts into account. There is an old estimate that shows that the Earth would be covered many feet thick in flies in a short time, if simply assume exponential growth, and ignore all limiting factors.here's a link.

And what about this line: "I only used mild, cautious assumptions," he said. "In the movies, you can see that vampires eat all the time. Truth be told, vampires never stop eating."
This statement is rubbish; most of the time vampires are lying in coffins, or climbing/flying, or hunting or partying/dancing, etc.
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Post by FTeik »

So what was Deacon Frosts plan after he turned all humans into vampires? Switch to tomato-syrup?
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