Moderator: Thanas
Indeed, the DS flew off shelves like no tomorrow in Japan which probably impacted sales there. But since sales there exceeded those of the GBA in the same timeframe over a multi-year period anyway, this doesn't really matter much.Stark wrote:Didn't they apologise for running out in Japan, something that had never happened before? They clearly underestimated demand, at least initially.
You're saying that Nintendo would expect the DS to fly off the shelves just like it did in Japan?The Kernel wrote:Of course, move the goalposts and don't even bother to address the fact that the DS expectations would have been set by the performance in Japan and its predecessor.DPDarkPrimus wrote: All I want is something showing that Nintendo expected the DS to equal the GBA in sales from the get-go.
Why not? The GBA's biggest market was the US which sold in enormous numbers here. What reason would they have to assume that the DS wouldn't sell as well proportionally here to the GBA?DPDarkPrimus wrote:You're saying that Nintendo would expect the DS to fly off the shelves just like it did in Japan?The Kernel wrote:Of course, move the goalposts and don't even bother to address the fact that the DS expectations would have been set by the performance in Japan and its predecessor.DPDarkPrimus wrote: All I want is something showing that Nintendo expected the DS to equal the GBA in sales from the get-go.
Oh, what bullshit. Did you bother to read the article that I posted?The Kernel wrote:Can we say "no limits" fallacy?
First of all, I have no clue where you're getting Nintendo's internal projections for sales on the DS, but the fact is that this shortage has been going on since the console was released. Nintendo sold over three million units from March to September of this year, which pretty much means that they sold nearly half of their current total in the last 2 quarters. Yes--that's exactly what I expect to see if the problems were caused by "cuts in manufacturing due to lower than anticipated demand."You think a shortage two years after launch (which is much more likely due to cuts in manufacturing due to lower than anticipated demand due to the 2 years they've had to deal with production issues) is indicative of a 14 million unit shortfall?
Yes. I see DS systems selling for over $180 US, a Super-Package selling for over $225, and multiple used systems bundled with a few games selling for over $160. I have been trying to get a system for my parents for the last three weeks and none of the local retailers have them in-stock, so yeah--I would describe that as a shortage.Show me hard numbers on supply shortages and I'll take it into consideration. But have you noticed a shortage of DS units at your local store? Are they selling for inflated prices on eBay? Nope.
Nothing in that article suggest why the shortage is occuring or how it is impacting sales. It could be simple a failure to anticipate medium term demand which can lead to shortages. This happens all the time and does not indicate that a system is selling particularly well.Master of Ossus wrote: First of all, I have no clue where you're getting Nintendo's internal projections for sales on the DS, but the fact is that this shortage has been going on since the console was released. Nintendo sold over three million units from March to September of this year, which pretty much means that they sold nearly half of their current total in the last 2 quarters. Yes--that's exactly what I expect to see if the problems were caused by "cuts in manufacturing due to lower than anticipated demand."
Funny, both Amazon and Gamestop have DS-lites of all colors in stock and ready to ship in 24 hours. And these are two huge online retailers of game products.Yes. I see DS systems selling for over $180 US, a Super-Package selling for over $225, and multiple used systems bundled with a few games selling for over $160. I have been trying to get a system for my parents for the last three weeks and none of the local retailers have them in-stock, so yeah--I would describe that as a shortage.
BTW, even on fucking eBay it's hard to find a DS system--they're there, but you have to look through numerous pages of shell-replacements and other nonsense.
American consumers are different than Japanese consumers. Asethetics count for a lot in a product there, and the DS has that in spades.The Kernel wrote:Why not? The GBA's biggest market was the US which sold in enormous numbers here. What reason would they have to assume that the DS wouldn't sell as well proportionally here to the GBA?DPDarkPrimus wrote:You're saying that Nintendo would expect the DS to fly off the shelves just like it did in Japan?The Kernel wrote: Of course, move the goalposts and don't even bother to address the fact that the DS expectations would have been set by the performance in Japan and its predecessor.
Yeah, there was--in the same fucking article you just quoted, it mentions a change in the exchange rates between the dollar and the yen--a change which also affected the yen vs. the Euro (but which wasn't explicitly mentioned in the article you posted but were, apparently, too stupid to read).The Kernel wrote:Also, if you want to talk expectations about the DS, look at this:
IGN
They cut the price less than a year after launch in the US and Europe, but not in Japan. You think they did it for a reason maybe?
All true, but I still don't see how it explains that Nintendo was expecting to sell 35% DS units as GBA over the same period in the US. Especially when they recognized that it was the US that truly drove GBA sales (I'm not saying they were bad anywhere else, but in the US they were phenomenal).DPDarkPrimus wrote: American consumers are different than Japanese consumers. Asethetics count for a lot in a product there, and the DS has that in spades.
Again, advertising is a factor. I can't recall ever seeing advertisements for the DS outside of gaming magazines up until very recently, while I know that the DS has been advertised heavily on television and in print in Japan from the get-go.
In Japan, the DS has had a host of non-gaming acessories released, like the Play-Yan (making it an mp3 player), kanji dictionaries, various language tutorial programs, recipe guides, etc.
And frankly, the selection of DS titles for the US other than first-party titles have been mostly forgettable, up until a year and a half ago.
What connection between the price cut and the earnings changes because of currency fluctuations are you referring to? They are separate points, and price of consoles doesn't fluctuate like that (they are sold based on what the local market will bear, not on what the true "value" is based on changing currency markets). Or are you not aware that Sony typically treats the dollar and the pound as equal when deciding how much to sell a console for?Master of Ossus wrote:Yeah, there was--in the same fucking article you just quoted, it mentions a change in the exchange rates between the dollar and the yen--a change which also affected the yen vs. the Euro (but which wasn't explicitly mentioned in the article you posted but were, apparently, too stupid to read).The Kernel wrote:Also, if you want to talk expectations about the DS, look at this:
IGN
They cut the price less than a year after launch in the US and Europe, but not in Japan. You think they did it for a reason maybe?
Which is less than 111 million and 102 million, so that's really not even 2nd best selling.The Kernel wrote:The GBA was the best selling console of all time. It has sold over 76 million units thus far, that's more than the fucking NES sold.
Xisiqomelir wrote:Which is less than 111 million and 102 million, so that's really not even 2nd best selling.The Kernel wrote:The GBA was the best selling console of all time. It has sold over 76 million units thus far, that's more than the fucking NES sold.
Ummm, any company that does export business will set a price for diffferent currency markets. They won't let it fluctuate freely with exchange rates, but they will periodically set it, and when they do set it, they will take exchange rates into account unless they're totally insane. If they appear not to be taking them into account it's most likely because they're looking at other factors, like the price of competing consoles.The Kernel wrote:What connection between the price cut and the earnings changes because of currency fluctuations are you referring to? They are separate points, and price of consoles doesn't fluctuate like that (they are sold based on what the local market will bear, not on what the true "value" is based on changing currency markets). Or are you not aware that Sony typically treats the dollar and the pound as equal when deciding how much to sell a console for?Master of Ossus wrote:Yeah, there was--in the same fucking article you just quoted, it mentions a change in the exchange rates between the dollar and the yen--a change which also affected the yen vs. the Euro (but which wasn't explicitly mentioned in the article you posted but were, apparently, too stupid to read).The Kernel wrote:Also, if you want to talk expectations about the DS, look at this:
IGN
They cut the price less than a year after launch in the US and Europe, but not in Japan. You think they did it for a reason maybe?
True, but given the lengthy shortage it seems unlikely that this is caused by a hiccup of demand.The Kernel wrote:Nothing in that article suggest why the shortage is occuring or how it is impacting sales. It could be simple a failure to anticipate medium term demand which can lead to shortages. This happens all the time and does not indicate that a system is selling particularly well.
Of course I am. That's exactly what's happening. Nintendo is increasing production of the DS Lite by 2 million/month, and has been trying to do that for some time.If they bring manufacturing to a level to meet demand and demand goes up to a point that requires an increase in manufacturing, this can take time and can lead to short term supply problems. I take it you are familiar enough with the way electronics manufacturing works to know that this is the case.
If there's a shortage of 2 million units PER MONTH, then I would say that would explain a 14 million unit shortfall in the US and Europe.Funny, both Amazon and Gamestop have DS-lites of all colors in stock and ready to ship in 24 hours. And these are two huge online retailers of game products.
But even so, it doesn't prove much and it certainly doesn't explain a 14 million unit shortfall in the US (not to mention Europe). If you have evidence of how this shortage is affecting sales numbers, please provide it.
What can we say? There's a shortage, it's pretty severe, and the DS Lite sold better than Nintendo expected, at least in the short-run.wikipedia wrote:Even though Nintendo managed to release 550,000 units in March (which was above their initial projections), many excited Japanese gamers were left empty-handed soon afterward. The shortage was supposed to be eased after Nintendo released 700,000 Nintendo DS Lites during April of 2006. However, retailers in Tokyo sold out yet again by late May 2006.[13] This shortage would last for most of 2006 with retailers all around the country having permanent ads apologizing for the shortage and announcing the ignorance of when a restock would arrive. When the product arrived, it would sell out within days. Since the restocking was erratic and not constant, looking up for the product would take several visits to different retailers, and most of the time finding the product would be unsuccessful.
[...]
On June 12, 2006 GameSpot reported that North American Nintendo DS Lites had sold out at major online retailers, as well as several brick-and-mortar stores.[18]
On June 13, 2006 Nintendo announced that 136,500 units were sold between Sunday and Monday, and seemed to be on pace to the 500,000 sold by the original Nintendo DS in its first 10 days.
wikipedia wrote:On July 11, 2006, Nintendo announced that the total numbers of Nintendo DS in Europe had reached over 5 million.
Hmmm, you know what I think is going on? The DS-lite has invigorated sales in the US much more than Nintendo anticipated and it is selling in much better numbers.Master of Ossus wrote: True, but given the lengthy shortage it seems unlikely that this is caused by a hiccup of demand.
*snip the rest*
Although I don't have sales figures for the GBA in Europe (I'm going from memory), I'm pretty sure that is below what the GBA sold, however I'm not really in the mood to dig through European news on the subject so you can consider the point dropped.Master of Ossus wrote: As for your claims that the DS has had disappointing sales in Europe,
If you look at the history of the console market, it generally follows those rules, but it is often an economics oddity of its own. Take for example the routine use of "dumping" the hardware, as well as the aforementioned pricing of consoles in Europe (this really never made much sense and is often pointed at for stifling sales). Some have suggested that pricing in Europe is based more on worries that console will have less game sell through in European countries due to piracy.Darth Wong wrote: Ummm, any company that does export business will set a price for diffferent currency markets. They won't let it fluctuate freely with exchange rates, but they will periodically set it, and when they do set it, they will take exchange rates into account unless they're totally insane. If they appear not to be taking them into account it's most likely because they're looking at other factors, like the price of competing consoles.
I don't have any way to evaluate that argument--I don't know the sales break-down by year of the DS. The Sony PSP is seriously lagging behind, too, with no good game releases almost since it came out and with studios abandoning the UMD format en masse.The Kernel wrote:Hmmm, you know what I think is going on? The DS-lite has invigorated sales in the US much more than Nintendo anticipated and it is selling in much better numbers.
So yeah, it's quite probable that DS sales are picking up significantly around here. Maybe it took a sexy new package to do it, but I don't think it changes the sales numbers for the DS during it's original couple of years.
What will be your standard of judgment on the DS-Lite? I'm assuming that it will be victorious provided that it continues to trounce the PSP, which for all its troubles has still sold nearly as many units as the DS (though not nearly as many games).I think we are going to have to wait to see after this holiday season before we see what the ultimate success of the new DS-lite incarnation will be.
Nitpick: It's shipped nearly as many units as the DS has sold. We don't know how many units have actually been sold.Master of Ossus wrote: What will be your standard of judgment on the DS-Lite? I'm assuming that it will be victorious provided that it continues to trounce the PSP, which for all its troubles has still sold nearly as many units as the DS (though not nearly as many games).
Yeah, sales numbers on the games industry aren't easy to come by. The best you can do is get them from second hand sources like the games news sites since all the real data is pay content from groups that track such things.Master of Ossus wrote: I don't have any way to evaluate that argument--I don't know the sales break-down by year of the DS. The Sony PSP is seriously lagging behind, too, with no good game releases almost since it came out and with studios abandoning the UMD format en masse.
It goes without saying that Nintendo is going to remain king of mobile; this certainly isn't going to change in the near future. The PSP has made some decent sales, but the last statistics I've seen on the subject showed that most of the gains were in a crowd that weren't buying many Gameboys anyway (the much vaunted 18-35 crowd).What will be your standard of judgment on the DS-Lite? I'm assuming that it will be victorious provided that it continues to trounce the PSP, which for all its troubles has still sold nearly as many units as the DS (though not nearly as many games).
I hope this will lead to SNES-era games getting complete graphics overhauls, ala FF III.The Kernel wrote: I think the DS is always going to be considered a success, but the core problem that Nintendo is dealing with now is that they can no longer recycle their old SNES titles and pass them off as a new game. This was a positively brilliant strategy for the GBA, but the DS has different demands graphics wise and the N64 catalog isn't really diverse enough to harvest many quality titles.
A good idea, but it doesn't really save much money (all the art assets and levels need to be redone, only the script can really be retained) and it doesn't really get you anything besides a possible fan base for the original game.DPDarkPrimus wrote:I hope this will lead to SNES-era games getting complete graphics overhauls, ala FF III.The Kernel wrote: I think the DS is always going to be considered a success, but the core problem that Nintendo is dealing with now is that they can no longer recycle their old SNES titles and pass them off as a new game. This was a positively brilliant strategy for the GBA, but the DS has different demands graphics wise and the N64 catalog isn't really diverse enough to harvest many quality titles.
The NES did only sell 65 million units. The best-selling console of all time is the Playstation 2. The next best-selling console of all time is the Playstation.The Kernel wrote:Xisiqomelir wrote:Which is less than 111 million and 102 million, so that's really not even 2nd best selling.The Kernel wrote:The GBA was the best selling console of all time. It has sold over 76 million units thus far, that's more than the fucking NES sold.
I was under the impression that the NES sold only 65 million units. Maybe that was just US, it's been a long time since I've worked in the games industry and I am going from memory here.
Wrong. Nintendo makes a profit on every console.Nintendo making games to sell on other platforms isn't a departure from anything.
Their hardware has always been a means to sell games, it isn't profitable in of itself.
Now, here the M$FT ticker's fabulous numbers. 5-year view shows us an overall change of -$1.94(-6.32%). This doesn't even beat the indexes(S&P500 +25.55%, Dow +28.73%). When you compare it to competitors who have been actually making products that people would use of their own volition, like Apple with it's +750% growth, it's even bleaker. If I had to apply an adjective here, it would be "moribund". M$ is not in a bad financial situation, Office and the M$ tax on OEMs rakes in the cash, but it doesn't really have prospects for growth. No one is buying 360s except Australians, no one wants Pasta except dingbats. They have enough in reserves to go a loooong time without making a quality product though, so we'll all have to suffer a little longer.If Microsoft is willing to pay well above market rate for Nintendo and provide them with a platform to sell their games, what the hell do the stockholders care? You may have a point if the games divisions profitability had any significant impact on Microsoft's bottom line (it doesn't), or if Microsoft were a stock that wasn't considered gold on Wall Street (it is, and has consistantly been a performer even through bear markets).
From an investor perspective, if a merger gave you the opportunity to increase your investment 50% in a single transaction you'd be a fool not to take it.