An exercise in alternate history I.

[Tosho]

I've been thinking about posting this for a while but I never got around to it, Guardsmen Bass's thread "What If...." for some reason or another prodded me into posting this:

What if Ogadai the great Khan, heir of Genghis Khan didn't drink himself to death, allowing Subadai Bahadur and Batu Khan to continue their campaign in europe?

Hopefully I think of more "exercises" later.

[Vympel]

Well as I consistently prove when I pay Medieval Total War all you need is an army of several thousand Byzantine Kataphraktoi and Pronoia Allagion heavy cavalry, heavy infantry etc to put those pathetic barbarians to flight!

[The Duchess of Zeon]

What if Ogadai the great Khan, heir of Genghis Khan didn't drink himself to death, allowing Subadai Bahadur and Batu Khan to continue their campaign in europe?

Hopefully I think of more "exercises" later.

I don't think it would necessarily annihilate European civilization as:

1. They wouldn't cross the Pyrenees most likely, and I'd like to see a light cav army campaigning in Iberia.

2. Same for Switzerland/Italy, and they might easily be defeated by the alliances of the cities currently in place there if they tried to tangle with them on their own terrain.

3. No boats, they can't get to Britain.

4. I don't see them crossing up over through Finland and into Sweden, etc, though there's not really much there at the moment.

5. I don't see them, again, crossing the Danube and campaigning into the Balkans, though they could. They could also lose; however, the area is in enough chaos that they might not, too. Taking Constantinople is beyond their capabilities.

Of course, that screws over Germany, Flanders, and France, along with more thoroughly working over what they historically did.

So can anything historically there stop them?

Well, Frederick II "Stupor Mundi" ("The Wonder of the World"), was Holy Roman Emperor at the time, and King of Naples and Sicily. He had also got himself in over his head trying to consolidate his rule of Italy.

But at the same time this was before he had suffered from serious problems in Germany, and when he was at the relative height of his power. Likewise, the armies of the Eastern Nations were not wholly defeated, and so the surviving knights and mercenaries would have flooded west, bolstering his own numbers and providing a relatively loyal bedrock: They had nothing to fight for but to defeat the Tartar to regain their lands, and there would be less suspicion than with the pagan Cumans in Hungary (to a degree).

Also, Germany is not as good cavalry country - especially south-western Germany - Than Eastern Europe. If one will recall, the Hungarians themselves were checked by Otto der Grosse at Lechfeld in similiar circumstances. A badly outnumbered force of heavy European cavalry completed shattered the Hungarian formation, primarily of light cavalry with some light infantry, and won that victory which secured Germany proper from the threat of barbarian invasion (at least, of course, until the Mongols).

The question is, if Frederick II could rally the support necessary, and get the Mongols to take him on where the terrain was favourable. Then we could see another Lechfeld. Certainly if he reigned in his knights and let eastern Germany be ravaged it isn't impossible; they would have to go through him to get to Francia. But that would be a very hard task; OTOH, this is also the man who talked his way into Jerusalem with a Muslim ruler as the man he was negotiating against, and during the height of the Crusades.

Quite enigmatic to say the least; but he was also beset by the problems of a disunited, and un-unitable, Empire, which even in the face of such a threat may prove beyond his capacity to hold together enough support for that style of effort. On the plus side, presupposing that French territory had not yet been penetrated, and the King of France historically having been eager to face the Tartar horde, he might be willing with his cavaliers to adopt such a strategy, assuming he and Frederick can come to an agreement: Which indeed might be easier than Frederick gaining the support of the disparate realms of the H.R.E.

Overall there is the very slimmest of chances that the Mongols might be defeated before they devastate the majority of Europe. But they won't get all of it, and not, really, the important parts when you think of the span of history and in terms of innovation.

[Tosho]

Historicaly The Mongols didn't give rat's ass about your Byzantine Empire they were interested in central&western Europe while the Byzantines were busy with the arabs intent on wiping them out. If their progress in eastern Europe was a premonition(sp?) as it were Europe would have been screwed. From what I've heard western Europe's best hope was France and if that was the case I'll let you fill the blank. The nations with the best chance were those that made up the British Isles simply because as history records the easiest way to beat the mongols was to live on an island. Not to mention Subadai and Batu were two of the best generals in history.

[Tosho]

As for tactics the Mongols would have a much easier time if they followed Genghis Khan's strategy: surrender and no arm shall come to you, resist and face total destruction. They could have told the people in charge of these city's the storys of Keiv and Cracow in gruesome detail and then make up some lie like "that was a censored version of what happened."
To drive the point home the first city to resist would receive the Khartoum
treatment.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Historicaly The Mongols didn't give rat's ass about your Byzantine Empire they were interested in central&western Europe while the Byzantines were busy with the arabs intent on wiping them out.

I was talking about the Holy Roman Empire there, not the Byzantine Empire.

Also, I might advise you to remember that resistance is hardly futile; especially against the terms the Mongols were usually in the habit of offering.

Actually, had Bela IV actually had the reinforcements of the Cumans that got him into that mess with the Mongols in the first place, I suspect that the Battle of the Sajo River would have gone rather differently than historical. It wasn't quite easy for the Mongols anyway.

Subedei probably was one of the best generals in the world's history, but that hardly makes him invincible.

[Tosho]

Historicaly The Mongols didn't give rat's ass about your Byzantine Empire they were interested in central&western Europe while the Byzantines were busy with the arabs intent on wiping them out.

I was talking about the Holy Roman Empire there, not the Byzantine Empire.

Also, I might advise you to remember that resistance is hardly futile; especially against the terms the Mongols were usually in the habit of offering.

Actually, had Bela IV actually had the reinforcements of the Cumans that got him into that mess with the Mongols in the first place, I suspect that the Battle of the Sajo River would have gone rather differently than historical. It wasn't quite easy for the Mongols anyway.

Subedei probably was one of the best generals in the world's history, but that hardly makes him invincible.

That post was directed to Vympel it just happens to be that you hit the submit button before I did, sorry for any confusion.

[Pablo Sanchez]

I like this Alternate History better:

What if Hulagu decides that it isn't worth going home for the succession vote, leaves Kublai to win it, and continues his all-out conquest of Egypt?

[Vympel]

That post was directed to Vympel it just happens to be that you hit the submit button before I did, sorry for any confusion.

Doesn't matter- the Byzantines woulda still kicked their ass

[Tosho]

That post was directed to Vympel it just happens to be that you hit the submit button before I did, sorry for any confusion.

Doesn't matter- the Byzantines woulda still kicked their ass

Assuming this hypothetical war takes place after a succesful campaign in Europe and the glorious conquest of China an alliance with the arabs attempting to destroy The Byzantines combined with a numberless hoarde of Chinese and European infantry supported and commanded by the warlike Mongols should put the Byzantines back in their place.

[CmdrWilkens]

Historicaly The Mongols didn't give rat's ass about your Byzantine Empire they were interested in central&western Europe while the Byzantines were busy with the arabs intent on wiping them out.

I was talking about the Holy Roman Empire there, not the Byzantine Empire.

Also, I might advise you to remember that resistance is hardly futile; especially against the terms the Mongols were usually in the habit of offering.

Actually, had Bela IV actually had the reinforcements of the Cumans that got him into that mess with the Mongols in the first place, I suspect that the Battle of the Sajo River would have gone rather differently than historical. It wasn't quite easy for the Mongols anyway.

Subedei probably was one of the best generals in the world's history, but that hardly makes him invincible.

Marina the fact remains that Sabotai not only defeated Bela but also wiped the floor with Duke Henry to the north. He eliminated two of the largest armies in Eastern Europe over the course of less than 2 days. Furthermore even with reinforcements it seems unlikely that Bela would hav been able to counter the awesome flanking move Sabotai pulled off as he, Sabotai, did exactly what a mdoern General wishes to do: pull the enemy in one direction by making them think they are winnning then crush them from the flanks and demoralize him.

Vienna was a fat target and it was defenseless against an assault. It would have been burned to the ground. At that point Fredrick would have been left with no choice but to moutn an offensive but even had he gathered as large an army as he could after the decimation of Henry and Bela the likelyhood of a victory is iffy at best.