PainRack wrote:Sikon wrote:Good life extension technology would have to be "eternal youth" about as much as "eternal life." That is not only because anything else would be unpleasant but also because anything else wouldn't work for long.
I'm sorry, but I don't subscribe to the nanotech and cloning wank about how new organs and the like will infinitely extend life forever. Quality of life will certainly be improved with medicial advances but without more concrete examples, I'm not going to speculate to infinity.
Extending life literally infinitely is not what I am arguing as obtainable, but see the discussion later in this post.
PainRack wrote:I'm saying that quality of life is seperate from life expectancy.
Consider a world in which almost everybody died by 30 years of age, having major aging deterioration start by age 20. Really imagine what it would be like to live with that life expectancy.
Some would call such a lesser quality of life than if the life expectancy was 80 years.
One can do the same comparison with a life expectancy of 80 years versus 200 years, if aging deterioration was decreased in the latter case ... and so on for other life expectancy figures.
PainRack wrote:Any examples of eternal youth suggests constant applications of such technology, starting from youth. Which means that just sheer cost itself will drive this out the price bracket of most people, unless nanotech lives up to its promise.
Until we get to the stage where gene therapy and genetic engineering can affect an adult and correct microscopic physical faults, I leave that to the arena of speculation. For example, you do know that gene therapy isn't going to correct the many physical wear and tear your bone structure suffers in the course of a lifetime, right? And to do that would be to tweak how your body regenerates itself, and even then......
To put it simply, while its easy to see how technology can extend our lives, its much more difficult to see how it can improve it as age goes by.
Costs do not necessarily have to be high. For example, if a droid facility could be made for the equivalent of $100000 and then amortized over 10 years of operation (90000 hours), its equivalent amortized capital cost might be on the order of a dollar a hour. Better yet, genetic engineering could cost nothing in marginal cost, as a person would pass the genes on to their descendants. Alternatively, have self-replicating technology like a cheap injection of nanobots.
When dealing with a challenging engineering problem, one technique is to break it down into smaller problems, solve each individually, then combine the solutions.
For example, consider possibilities for decreasing aging deterioration of skin. While growing new skin and having surgical replacement could work, there may be more elegant alternatives. One might be gradual cell replacement. Cells normally die and get replaced. Using microscopic robots or maybe even just equipment with many microscopic needles, replace a tiny fraction of the original cells with young, new, and improved cells. Perhaps creating a slight additional rate of apoptosis (regulated cell death), ensure that the old cells get gradually replaced over a period of months to years by the new ones that have more frequently divided. Another method could be gene therapy. Yet another possibility would involve no ongoing, active intervention at all: genetic engineering that would last for future generations. Study the cells of animals living for up to hundreds of years with a lesser rate of aging deterioration than humans (some turtles, rockfish, etc.).
Continuing the example, after first merely figuring out how to decrease senescence in skin, move on to other tissues one by one. Then combine the techniques at the end. Perhaps first experiment on some short-lived animals that age and die in several years, trying to modify them into longer-lived creatures.
The brain itself is perhaps the greatest challenge. Although possibilities range up to gradual nanotech neuron replacement, stimulating neurogenesis may have much potential, countering the many billions of neurons lost in senescence. Fortunately, the brain appears to be greatly redundant and adaptive, so gradual neuron replacement might not be analogous to replacing the hard drive in a regular computer, instead more analogous to replacing a single hard drive in a massive RAID array which would later copy information backed up elsewhere onto it.
In regard to bone, possibilities include manipulating cells (osteoblasts) to add more bone mass. Besides, consider the overall picture: In the end, the body aside from the brain mainly just fulfills the role of giving the brain two-way nerve communication (sensory input, motor signals output) and blood circulation supplying oxygen, glucose, etc. Admittedly, people don't want to end up with their brain in an artificial body, though the GFFA has the main technological advancements needed. Yet, if needed, subtle partial replacement of some bodily components like bones with nanotech or other means might be done without any noticeable change in appearance. However, as previously suggested, such may be unnecessary.
Certainly it is easier to look for problems than to find solutions. Imagine the difficulty for someone in the 19th century trying to figure out the precise details of how to obtain heavier-than-air human flight, even though it was clearly scientifically possible as illustrated by birds. A person a couple thousand years ago would have a still harder time. I am at a disadvantage here compared to what the best scientists out of quintillions of people could eventually figure out and accomplish with technology thousands of years more advanced. However, longer lifespans and a lesser rate of aging deterioration are scientifically possible, even illustrated by some creatures.
The fundamental reason different animals age at their respective rates has to do with past evolution. Humans would already live longer except for that natural selection didn't favor long life when survival even to age 40 usually didn't happen. Fitness at age 70 was disconnected from reproductive success.
As said in one of my earlier posts, there is no absolute proof that effective life extension is possible until it is obtained. However, a good impartial observer of this discussion would guess that it is possible.
PainRack wrote:
I'm sorry, but Obiwan physical activity at his age is relatively rare, not to mention his health, especially when one factors in his environment. But he is a force assisted human, so obviously, its moot.
Yes, use of the Force makes a difference, like Yoda vs. Count Dooku in AOTC.
PainRack wrote:Sikon wrote:
There are some cases of droids exceeding humans in specialized areas, analogous to how a terrestrial supercomputer or even a pocket calculator can sometimes do likewise. However, I am instead talking about vastly greater general intelligence compared to humans.
Define greater general intelligence.
Much greater general intelligence means superior effectiveness, understanding, and decision-making in most intellectual tasks and occupations. Consider the difference between a genius and a person far below average intelligence. Then greatly magnify that difference.
Consider what was happening with hominid evolution up to humans, then just don't treat baseline homo sapiens intelligence as the absolute maximum possible.
PainRack wrote:Sikon wrote:
Extraordinary intelligence is not required to come up with an estimate of odds, particularly when the estimate is utterly wrong. Threepio estimating 3720 to 1 odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field actually demonstrates the opposite, though he may have been just trying to scare Han Solo as suggested in the discussion in The situation depends upon too many uncertain factors to make a meaningful judgement with 3 significant figures. Note the Millennium Falcon did survive, and the most likely explanation is not astronomical luck but rather that the numerical figure was nonsense.
Of course, R2 also compiles odds for Luke survival in the cold. Furthermore, this ignores that R2 hacking abilities, Lobot search and pattern recognition abilities are above the norm.
Hell, C3PO has on various occasions learnt new languages and dialects.
For the odds estimate being judged as superhuman intelligence, my response would be practically a repeat of my original quote. See the above mention of what much greater general intelligence would mean.
PainRack wrote:Sikon wrote:
A droid brain truely far beyond human intelligence could in the right environment learn to be a better general than a human genius, or a better engineer, or almost anything.
We assume that the great Droid rebellion etched in the New Essential Chronology, the fact that even thinking about escape would burn the logic circuits in C3PO does not prevent the development of intellligence.
The problem is, we HAVE seen such examples. C3PO can learn new language
The enormous potential personal benefit from creating a hyperintelligent AI means that some corporations or other entities have motivation to do so. Such is like an unpredictable genie that many might fear to release, but sooner or later someone would do so.
C3PO does not show general intelligence far beyond human level. My earlier genius vs. moron analogy should not underestimate the difference possible, considering that only four orders of magnitude difference in brain mass is what separates humans and goldfish. As implied before during my discussion with Noble Ire, the biological, evolutionary reasons limiting human brains to the performance of a bit more than 1000 cubic centimeters of neural tissue are not applicable to artificial sapients.
PainRack wrote:Sikon wrote:For example, hyperintelligent AI might manage to develop and deploy factories that rapidly self-replicated, limited only by the raw resources of a region of the galaxy.
Your post is just a whole lot of "it should have". You got to set some parameters, otherwise, its going to be impossible to prove or disprove your point. As it is, with the advent of the Star Forge and World Devastators, your so call "should be able to " is already moot.
Let's see what would be the potential of what I mentioned, then compare to the Star Forge and World Devastators. Rapid self-replication limited only by raw resources would mean a factory replicating in months would double 30 times in a few years, giving a billion times the industrial output, and then continue so on, aside from resource limits...
The planets in the solar system mass on the order of 3E27 kg. Conservatively assume suitable resources averaging almost two orders of magnitude less per star system for the 200 to 400 billion star systems in a galaxy like the Milky Way or the GFFA. Just assume 10% is processed by the self-replicating factories. After all, we don't want them to consume too many planets, moons, etc. Even so, that gives an estimate for their industrial output of 1E36 kg.
This estimate of 1E36 kg from self-replicating industrial production is on the order of a million times less than the 1E42 kg to 1E43 kg mass of a 100,000+ light-year diameter galaxy. That is because only a small portion of the total non-gaseous material outside of stars is expected to be used. Although "rock" is composed primarily of oxygen, iron, aluminum, and other useful elements, the factories are only expected to utilize part of the total, despite being vastly beyond the kind of hypothetical self-replicating factory studied by
NASA.
Galactic population is uncertain, but 1000 quadrillion (1 quintillion) would be a relatively high-end estimate: 1E18 people and aliens. The self-replicating technology thus allows a level of wealth corresponding to on the order of a quadrillion metric tons of industrial output per person.
Such would allow an astronomical number of structures, artificial worlds, etc. with a combined volume quadrillions of times that of the 3.8E17 cubic meter
volume second Death Star. Whether or not a correspondingly astronomical number of hyperdrive-equipped warships could be built is uncertain; they may require uncommon materials in their engines, armor, etc. For example, whether or not Tibanna gas for turbolasers is comprised of ordinary elements is uncertain, and the relative performance of alternatives is also unknown. However, obviously commercial and residential wealth could be astronomical.
We can gain some idea of the wealth of the galactic population from glimpses of Naboo, Tatooine, Coruscant, etc. For example, we can see the size and nature of their residences. Nothing suggests wealth is even a millionth as much. Indeed, consider that a millionth of 1E36kg would still be industrial output on the order of a billion tons per person for the quintillion-person population.
Thus, the GFFA does not have wealth corresponding to deploying rapidly self-replicating factories limited only by raw resources. That is the observation behind my original disputed statement implying such technology would be of great value.
The Star Forge was a cool plot element in KOTOR, but what did it accomplish in comparison? It apparently produced some thousands of ships, using the Dark Side in some manner. It wasn't self-replicating. Still, it illustrates that GFFA technology can draw material from a star. That raises the possibility of the self-replicating factories I described instead having an eventual industrial output up to orders of magnitude more than the 1E36 kg used in the preceding discussion.
World Devastators had much potential, but their limited use by Palpatine didn't change the GFFA's overall level of industrial output. Besides, the ultimate goal of EU Palpatine was quite a bit different from raising per capita wealth...
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The GFFA has some awesome technology and some great stories, but they don't represent the ultimate level possible in all endeavors after 25000 years of development.
People can fly higher than birds, lift more than gorillas, and travel faster than cheetahs. Maximum obtainable life expectancy being always less than that of some other animals is doubtful. Neither would AI technology probably jump all hurdles to producing quadrillions of homo-sapiens-level sapients but then suddenly coincidentally forever stop there.
Trying to explain GFFA limits from cultural trends is perhaps the best in-universe explanation possible, although lack of historical uniformity or universal Republic control makes such questionable.