Enlightenment wrote:Alex Moon wrote:the threat of China deciding to make some moves towards Taiwan while the US is busy on two seperate fronts.
China doesn't have the amhibious lift to make moves towards Taiwan. The most the PRC could do is make a lot of noise, impose a blockade, and drop a few bombs here and there. Invading and capturing Taiwan is completely beyond the PRC's reach at the moment.
Nor, for that matter, are the Chinese stupid enough to threaten their economic growth by starting an offensive war.
It doesn't have to invade. By blockading Taiwan and possibly bombing a few targets, China would force the US to choose between sending Naval forces to assist Taiwan, or keeping them close enough to assist US and SK forces. If the US chooses to send forces, then it could be seen as an abandonment of the SK in favor of the Taiwanese, and hurt the reputation of the US with Asian democracies, as well as hurt the morale of troops fighting the North Koreans. If the US keeps it's forces near Korea, then either the Chinese can negotiate large concessions from the US in exchange for a withdrawl of its blockade, or it can simply stay put, and by the time the US is able to deal with the blockade, its reputation with Taiwan will be hurt, and China will have gained a more powerful position.