about how DQ is big in Japan, and how this will affect hardware sales in the upcoming months.
Tuesday, 12 December 2006
Dragon Quest on DS: What It Means
Topic: Japan,Portable Gaming
I think everyone can agree that today's announcement that Dragon Quest IX will appear on Nintendo DS is shocking and meaningful, but I imagine that not everyone is quite sure why. Certainly it is a bad day to be Sony, who just lost another major exclusive. Dragon Quest VIII was the best-selling PlayStation 2 game in Japan. Not the best-selling RPG or the best-selling Square Enix game -- the single biggest PS2 game, ever.
Beyond that, though, there are many things to consider, which I'll be trying to work out after the jump (or below, depending on how you got here).
There were rumblings that Square Enix would indeed announce Dragon Quest IX at this press event. Mostly because they wouldn't hold a big to-do like this without something really major to show, and the other options -- a spin-off, or a remake of an older game -- weren't going to cut it.
However, there was one big reason that they wouldn't show off DQIX -- because it's too early to decide what next-generation system should be the home of Japan's biggest franchise. Square Enix has traditionally waited to see what the outcome of the console wars would be before committing Dragon Quest to a platform. This is why DQVII and DQVIII arrived so late in the lifecycles of PlayStation 1 and 2, respectively -- because Square Enix didn't start development until they were sure the audience was there.
But there was a third outcome that none of us had considered, and that was that DQIX might appear on Nintendo DS. If we take as gospel the fact that Dragon Quest goes to the system with the highest userbase, it makes sense. DS is on track to outsell every other game console in the history of Japan.
Not to mention the fact that the DS, both as a product and in its branding and image, is an embodiment of the feeling that the DQ series seeks to embrace. DQ is played by hardcore gamer nerds, sure, but it's also for little kids and moms and dads and retirees. It's a simple, accessible game for everybody. It's Japan's equivalent of Disney movies.
In that sense, why not put it on DS? The only real barrier was that the Dragon Quest games had always been on home consoles. But it's getting to the point where there's no difference. Sure, it's not going to look as pretty as Dragon Quest VIII, but the screenshots that have been released prove that the Nintendo DS has no trouble with Akira Toriyama's art style. Plus, DQVIII was really the only game in the series that exuded any sort of technical prowess, anyway. Dragon Quest 7 looked like total ass for a PSone game and Japan bought four million of them.
DQIX might be the first four-million-selling game on Nintendo DS.
That's something else. Square Enix stands to rake it in on this. They could spend three years and 30 million dollars making DQIX for PlayStation 3, then barely scrape that money back. Or they could make a killing on DQIX while they wait. You might call this opportunistic; I call it Nintendo's business strategy coming into its own. You might say that this heralds the death of home gaming consoles; I say there's no reason Wii can't do the same thing.
Also requiring some thought is the new direction the gameplay is taking. Dragon Quest VIII was a staunchly traditional RPG that outright rejected change -- besides the graphics, it felt very much like a game from fifteen years ago. But Dragon Quest IX features a real-time battle system and a four-player mode. Square Enix isn't particularly forthcoming about how the four-player online game and the single-player mode will be balanced, or which is the "main" mode. But since it'll be released next year, we won't have to wait long to find out.
Speaking of which, the timing of this announcement must also be considered. It's the week before Jump Festa, of course, at which Square Enix will have a sprawling booth filled with playable, anticipated titles. But it's also just weeks before the release of Dragon Quest Monsters Joker, a Pokemon-styled monster-collecting-battling spinoff of the main series.
DQMJ was already pretty much guaranteed to go over a million units on the strength of the franchise and the fact that it looks pretty damn good. But now, Dragon Quest lovers know that they'll need a Nintendo DS to play the next game in their favorite series. And with a spinoff game out this month, quite a few of them will decide that it's the right time to take the plunge.
I don't even want to speculate, now, what Nintendo DS sales will be in Japan over the holiday. It'll make the 900,000 units they moved in November here in the US look like a rounding error.
There are still, I'm sure, some holdouts who believe DQIX to be a stopgap measure and that the tenth game in the series could still appear on PlayStation 3. But it won't. Because between DQ Monsters this year and DQIX/DQ Swords the next, Square Enix is sending a very strong message to the Dragon Quest fan base: buy Nintendo hardware. They're not going to pull a fast one on them a year from now and say, "Just kidding, suckers! If you want DQX, it's time to pony up 60,000 yen for PlayStation 3!"
Not going to happen. I think the only question that remains is whether they'll keep the series portable, or release DQX for the home. And ultimately the answer will only come after we see the sales of Wii and PS3. If Wii can dominate the market DS-style, then it's entirely possible.
But that's hardly guaranteed: for all Sony's problems, they're still Sony. And with Xbox 360 having completely shit the bed, PlayStation 3 is the only choice in Japan for anyone who's looking for the full high-end upscale entertainment experience -- which, say what you will about Japan's taste in gaming, is still a whole lot of people. And they've got the lock on Final Fantasy.
And yet, if DQIX is truly a sign of a turning tide, the fact that the Nintendo DS is getting loaded up with Final Fantasy games (Revenant Wings, Crystal Chronicles, III, and God knows what else), it could be the Nintendo DS lineup that's seen as the true continuation of the Final Fantasy series, and the PS3 games might become less relevant. I know that sounds crazy but hey, Dragon Quest IX is on DS. Welcome to Crazytown.
Posted by Chris Kohler 2:47 PM
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