Islamist Forces in Somalia Are on the Retreat

Galiv · Post by **Galiv** » 2006-12-26 08:21pm

December 26, 2006
Islamist Forces in Somalia Are on the Retreat

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec. 26 — Islamist forces in Somalia beat a hasty retreat today to their stronghold in Mogadishu, Somalia’s battle-scared capital, crumbling faster than anyone expected after a week of attacks by Ethiopian forces.

Burhakaba, a large inland city, fell first, followed by Dinsoor, not far away, and then Bulo Burto, where just a few weeks ago the Islamists in charge were threatening to behead people who did not pray.

The Islamist fighters, who had seemed invincible after taking Mogadishu in June, now seem powerless to stop the steady advance of the Ethiopian-backed forces of the transitional government.

By this afternoon, the transitional government troops were within 60 miles of Mogadishu and calling for the Islamists to surrender. The Islamist leaders refused, saying they would take their fight “everywhere,” which some people viewed as a veiled threat to expand the guerilla tactics and suicide bombs they have already used.

The fast-moving developments seem to confirm what United Nations officials and witnesses in Somalia have been saying since the fighting erupted a week ago: that the young forces of the Islamists, however religiously inspired, were no match for the better trained, better equipped Ethiopian-backed troops who have tanks and fighter jets.

Still, the conflict is hardly over. Thousands of people continue to march in the streets of Mogadishu, rallying behind the Islamists, and analysts are unanimous that an Ethiopian occupation of Mogadishu, a city thick with weapons and xenophobia, could become a bloodbath.

In Baidoa, the seat of the transitional government, top leaders said they were planning on taking the capital.

“We feel great,” said Hussein Saylan, chief of the transitional cabinet, on Tuesday. He spoke by telephone from a command center where radios crackled in the background. “We’re moving swiftly toward Mogadishu, and the Islamists are panicking. We’re finishing them off as we go.”

Witnesses reported that Ethiopian fighter jets and helicopter gunships were firing missiles at the retreating Islamist pickup trucks, easy targets in the open desert.

In Mogadishu, the Islamists began fortifying the airport, radio station and other key buildings, preparing for a siege.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a top Islamist leader and one who used to be considered a moderate, vowed at a press conference that the Islamists would never buckle.

“The war is entering a new phase,” he said. “We will fight Ethiopia for a long, long time, and we expect the war to go everywhere.”

Though diplomats in the region have expressed concerns about this conflict turning Somalia, already a very poor, neglected country, into a humanitarian disaster, there has been noticeable silence about Ethiopia’s aggressive tactics.

Patrick Mazimhaka, a high-ranking African Union official, told the BBC that Ethiopia was within its rights to strike.

“It is up to every country to judge the measure of the threat to its own sovereignty,” Mr. Mazimhaka said. American officials have given Ethiopia, one of their closest allies in Africa, tacit approval to stamp out the Islamists, who American intelligence agents have accused of sheltering Al Qaeda terrorists.

On Tuesday, there were reports that American surveillance planes were spotted in the skies above Somalia and may be funneling battlefield intelligence to Ethiopian forces.

When asked about this, Major Kelley Thibodeau, spokeswoman for the task force of American military personnel based in nearby Djibouti, responded, “I am not at liberty to discuss that.”

There are more than 100 American soldiers in Ethiopia helping train Ethiopia troops. But Major Thibodeau said “Officially, we haven’t put anybody in Somalia. The Americans don’t go forward with the Ethiopians. They are training Ethiopians in Ethiopia.”

As the situation in Somalia began to shift, it seemed that the Islamists may have overplayed their hand. Just a few months ago they were the most powerful force in the country and popular in many areas for restoring order after 15 years of anarchy. The transitional government, which is internationally recognized but weak and divided, was urging the Islamists to return to peace talks to discuss sharing power.

But all that changed last Wednesday at dawn when the Islamists attacked Baidoa from two directions. Witnesses said that their waves of young fighters were summarily mowed down by the more experienced (and older) Ethiopian-backed troops. On Saturday, the Islamists announced that Somalia was now open to Muslim fighters across the world who wanted to wage a jihad against Ethiopia, which has a long Christian history though it is actually about half Muslim.

The next day, Ethiopia struck.

With warplanes and tanks, the Ethiopian military pushed deep into Somalia and began uprooting the Islamists from their positions. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s prime minister, said his country had been forced into war by the Islamists and that Ethiopia would try to neutralize the threat as quickly as possible.

The toll is rising in Mogadishu. At Benadir hospital, crowds of women pushed at the gates to get inside to see their wounded sons and husbands. Witnesses said the hospital’s courtyards were stacked with dozens of corpses buzzing with flies. Some of the women even threw stones at the Islamist commanders visiting the hospital and shouted, “Why have you done this to us?”

Yussuf Maxamuud and Mohammed Ibrahim contributed reporting from Mogadishu.

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

Looks like the Somali islamists have taken on a bit much. Hopefully this won't devolve in to a bloody guerilla war.

Galiv · Post by **Galiv** » 2006-12-26 08:23pm

Damnit, this was meant to be in News. Sorry

Can a mod please move it. Thank you.

Shinova · Post by **Shinova** » 2006-12-26 08:31pm

So would we be seeing more of the warlords thing in somalia after all this is done and if the islamists get pushed out?

Post by **Ghost Rider** » 2006-12-26 08:38pm

*sweep*

Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba · Post by **Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba** » 2006-12-27 12:35am

I guess my questions in the other thread about Ethiopia's abilities to deal with the militias have been answered quite satisfactorialy.

Rogue 9 · Post by **Rogue 9** » 2006-12-27 02:02am

Good on them. Hope it works out after the fighting, but I'm not so optimistic as to expect it to. Here's the link.

Spyder · Post by **Spyder** » 2006-12-27 02:17am

Shinova wrote:So would we be seeing more of the warlords thing in somalia after all this is done and if the islamists get pushed out?

It all hinges on the aftermath. If the Ethiopian forces can maintain order long enough then they might have a chance at reform. If not then it'll be anarchy all over again and the Somalis will be starting back at square one.

If Mogadishu is left in anarchy they'll have to wait before moving up to having an opressive fundamentalist regime.

wautd · Post by **wautd** » 2006-12-27 05:21am

Where's thy god now eh?

wautd · Post by **wautd** » 2006-12-27 05:26am

Maybe slightly off topic but just curious, what kind of tanks and fighter planes are we talking about?

VT-16 · Post by **VT-16** » 2006-12-27 05:32am

According to Wikipedia, Ethiopia's got Soviet-era planes and tanks: MiG-21, MiG-23, Su-27 planes and T-54/55, T-62 tanks.

LordShaithis · Post by **LordShaithis** » 2006-12-27 05:47am

Typical Third World obsolete Soviet stuff, but T-55 >>> pickup truck with a gun in the back.

Big Orange · Post by **Big Orange** » 2006-12-27 07:54am

LordShaithis wrote:Typical Third World obsolete Soviet stuff, but T-55 >>> pickup truck with a gun in the back.

The T-55 still has decent armour, deceptively fast speeds and a big gun that would leave a gaping hole in your house.

People forget how very nasty Soviet weapons, planes and tanks really are, even though they're outmatched by top rate NATO material. And in most Third World countries or Arab nations, Soviet equipment has a poor showing on the battlefield mainly because the armies using them were crap to begin with and the Soviet equipment was very poorly maintained.

Post by **Coyote** » 2006-12-27 10:36am

It's not the equipment, it's the training, skill, professionalism, and motivation that makes a difference.

Still, equipment is important so long as it gets used properly. US commanders who forgot that lesson in Somalia first time 'round neglected proper armor support... looks like the Ethiopians on their own or the US trainers there adapted though.

Go, go, Gadget... Ethiopia!

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2006-12-27 10:52am

Ethiopia looks like they learned their lesson from their war with Eritrea and seem to be conducting themselves in reasonably modern tactics and strategy (read: not WW1 with 1950s weapons)

Axis Kast · Post by **Axis Kast** » 2006-12-27 11:17am

If I remember correctly, Ethiopia purchased Su-27's (as well as a micro-scale logistical train and combat controllers) from the Sukhoi Aircraft Corporation during the '99-'00 border war with Eritrea. They already had a squadron or so of MiG-29's flown by Ukranian mercenaries.

Ethiopia has enjoyed mixed results with its mercenaries. Although they have undoubtedly reaped more benefit than, say, Biafra ever did, it's thought by some that mercenary pilots are a liability. The Ukranian guns-for-hire apparently had misgivings about targeting their fellow countrymen flying for Eritrea. In Biafra, it's been more or less confirmed that British mercenaries could have ended the war eighteen months earlier had they chosen to bomb Uli Airfield (a decision from which they foreswore on account of their fears that an early end to the war would leave them without work).

Still, given who Ethiopia's enemies are this time around, mercenaries may be a good bet for utilizing some of the more complex weaponry in their arsenal. It'll also serve to put a little fear in Isayas Afwerke's regime in Asmera.

Battlehymn Republic · Post by **Battlehymn Republic** » 2006-12-27 02:44pm

A Christmastime offensive?

Big Orange · Post by **Big Orange** » 2006-12-27 06:59pm

Axis Kast wrote: Ethiopia has enjoyed mixed results with its mercenaries. Although they have undoubtedly reaped more benefit than, say, Biafra ever did, it's thought by some that mercenary pilots are a liability. The Ukranian guns-for-hire apparently had misgivings about targeting their fellow countrymen flying for Eritrea. In Biafra, it's been more or less confirmed that British mercenaries could have ended the war eighteen months earlier had they chosen to bomb Uli Airfield (a decision from which they foreswore on account of their fears that an early end to the war would leave them without work).

Mercenaries fighting for the Ethiopians? This reminds me of the first half of the 20th century where you had loads of European mercenaries fighting in places like China, Russia and Spain with the civil wars. And I thought British mercs were mainly in security firms now (as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan) and were not of the traditional kind where they even serve as pilots. And I thought pilot mercenaries did not mind shooting down mercs from the same country of origin (ie money over real politics).

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2006-12-27 07:15pm

Big Orange wrote: Mercenaries fighting for the Ethiopians? This reminds me of the first half of the 20th century where you had loads of European mercenaries fighting in places like China, Russia and Spain with the civil wars. And I thought British mercs were mainly in security firms now (as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan) and were not of the traditional kind where they even serve as pilots. And I thought pilot mercenaries did not mind shooting down mercs from the same country of origin (ie money over real politics).

As pilots, they are all going to be former soldiers. There is going to be a comraderie that is hard to get rid of, especially comming from a small community.

Galiv · Post by **Galiv** » 2006-12-28 02:47am

Somali Islamists withdraw from Mogadishu
December 28, 2006 - 6:20PM

A top Somali Islamist leader says that all Islamist forces have withdrawn from the capital Mogadishu.

"We have withdrawn all the leaders and members who worked in the capital," Sheikh Sharif Ahmed told Al Jazeera television.

He said the Somali Islamists remained united and explained the move as a change in tactics in its war against Ethiopian troops, defending the weak interim government.

The retreat came hours after a joint force of Ethiopian and Somali government troops advanced to just 30 km from Mogadishu, threatening to besiege the capital rather than attack it.

Witnesses reported looting late on Wednesday in Mogadishu which has enjoyed a semblance of law and order since the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC) seized it from US-backed warlords in June.

Gunshots echoed in the air early on Thursday, in a sign the city may descend back into anarchy.

Link

Jason von Evil · Post by **Jason von Evil** » 2006-12-28 09:31am

Hell, let's bring these guys to Iraq, they seem to know what they're doing.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2006-12-28 10:08am

Jason von Evil wrote:Hell, let's bring these guys to Iraq, they seem to know what they're doing.

Somalia is rather different than Iraq right now.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2006-12-28 01:33pm

Still, the fact that the Ethiopians drove the Islamists out of their "stronghold" in about a week is nothing short of remarkable. Get those boys some top gear, quick.

CJvR · Post by **CJvR** » 2006-12-28 01:44pm

As in most clan based areas once the clans decide you are on the losing side they will stab you so fast even the head of an ace Diplomacy player would spinn. The ICU didn't become powerful because of Jihad spearheaded by an army of murderous zealots. Rather it was a few clans that decided to back them. Something simillar happened in Afghanistan, all the Taliban's allies jumped ship for a few $$ or to avoid getting carpet bombed.

Just a remember that they can jump back just as quickly.

Jason von Evil · Post by **Jason von Evil** » 2006-12-28 02:44pm

phongn wrote:
Jason von Evil wrote:Hell, let's bring these guys to Iraq, they seem to know what they're doing.
Somalia is rather different than Iraq right now.

I was only being half serious.