Are You Going to be Drafted?
Ever since the day of the devastating attacks in New York City and on the Pentagon, I have been inundated with requests about my views concerning the possibility that the United States will re-institute a draft for our military services. These questions continue in light of the 'War on Terrorism," and the very real possibility of armed conflict with Iraq, as well as the current situation with North Korea.
Is a draft likely? What exactly is "the draft?" Who is likely to be drafted? What happens during a draft?
Will a draft happen?
Probably not, unless the United States gets involved in a major, major conflict (on the scale of World War II). Probably not even then, for several reasons.
For more than a quarter of a century, the United States Military has been an "all volunteer" service. During that time, the military has dramatically changed the way it trains and the way it fights. In order to implement a draft, we would have to change the entire way the military trains and operates today.
A draft is a good way to fight wars of 50 years ago. It is a lousy way to fight wars today. Today's military members are highly trained professionals. The days of giving a couple month's of training on firing a rifle and tossing a grenade, then sending men off to combat are long gone. In today's military, even the basic infantry is "high tech." You don't train someone to operate and maintain highly sophisticated military equipment overnight. It takes a minimum of 18 months to 2 years to turn out a trained Soldier, Airman, Sailor, or Marine. It takes even longer than that for many military specialties.
In short, if we instituted a draft today, inductees would not be effective until about two years from now (at which time, their two year service commitment would be over).
Each of the military services are well ahead of their recruiting goals for this fiscal year (FY 2003). Even if we dramatically increase our force levels (unnecessary for most conflicts), the military services will have little trouble obtaining enough qualified recruits. Since the 9/11, recruiting offices all over the country have been inundated with individuals who wish to serve (many of them are disappointed to learn they can't simply rush off to boot camp, and then go kill the enemy). Recruiters are turning away more applicants than are being accepted (for a variety of reasons). The same was true during the Gulf War.
A significant problem with a draft is that Congress would have to repeal the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" legislation which allows homosexuals to serve in the armed forces, as long as they keep their sexual preferences secret. Under current rules, "open" homosexuals are not allowed to serve. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that anyone (especially today's "youth") who do not wish to serve would have no problems with claiming homosexuality in order to escape military service. (Note: Many people feel that "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" should be repealed anyway, but that's another topic).
For more than 20 years, each of the military services have come to rely upon the Armed Forces Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) testing program to determine whether or not one has the aptitude to learn military jobs. If a draft were re-instituted, it would be far too easy for individuals who did not wish to serve to intentionally score low on this exam. The military would have no way of knowing which skills these individuals would be capable of learning. As I said, even today's infantry is "high tech," and we have to have the ability to determine whether or not one even has the mental capability of succeeding before we waste thousands of taxpayers dollars to pay for the training.
I often hear individuals state that everyone should serve a term in the U.S. Military. While I personally think that a term of military service would benefit most of our youths, the idea is simply not workable. At any given time, there is approximately 70 million people in the United States who are eligible for military service. We can barely afford our current force-levels of about 1.5 million members on active duty. If we instituted a draft, we could afford to induct a very small percentage of those 70 million eligible.
Most military personnel I know would rather serve alongside someone who has volunteered to be there, not some small percentage of the population dragged there by threat of prison.
Our country does not need a draft. We have a million and a half highly trained, professional Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines currently on active duty. Additionally, we have 1.3 million in the Guard and Reserves. Together, these 2.8 million "all volunteer" professionals can handle any foreseeable military conflict. Also, let's not forget the millions in the inactive reserves, or the millions of military retirees who, by law, can be recalled to active duty at any time. Thousands of military veterans have already phoned in or otherwise contacted the various Military Reserve Centers, volunteering for re-instatement.
The Selective Service has issued the following official statement concerning the likelihood of a draft:
The Selective Service System remains in a standby, caretaker status. On Wednesday, September 18, 2002, in response to a question about the draft, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld indicated that there was "not a chance" of reinstituting the draft. According to Rumsfeld, the military is successful in attracting and retaining talented people in sufficient numbers.
It would take legislative action by the Congress and implementation by the President to reinstate a draft in an emergency.
The Selective Service System, like all Federal agencies, is ready to accomplish its missions. While no heightened measures have been undertaken to bring the Nation closer to reestablishing conscription, young men are reminded that they are still required by existing Federal law to register with Selective Service within 30 days of their 18th birthday. Late registrations are accepted, but not if a man is 26 years old or older.
All of the military services are far ahead of their recruiting goals. In fact, for the Air Force, on the very first day of the Fiscal Year (which began on October 1), the service had already signed up more than 50 percent of all their quotas for the entire remainder of the fiscal year. The other services are reporting similar recruiting and retention successes. Whether this is because of a worsening civilian job market, or increased patriotism due to the "war on terrorism," or a combination of both, is unclear.
No, don't expect the initiation of a draft, anytime soon. It ain 't gonna happen.
