Things is, the Iraqis can always attack America unless they completely close their borders and build walls around their country, while rebels planetside will literally have no hope of doing anything against the Republic.Patrick Degan wrote:Theoretically, the Iraqis can't oppose a nuclear-armed superpower able to blast every one of their cities off the map within a half-hour. The problem is that unless you are actually willing to do that, there is no way you can convince the population that resistance is futile.
I spoke of decapitating it without dismantling the administration, police, army, etc. so that you can replace the head with someone more willing to cooperate. This is what I mean by "decapitate the government"Patrick Degan wrote:And you seem to be contradicting yourself about not dismantling the planetary government when you'd earlier spoke of decapitating it.
Why would the natives have a say in things? You just need an ambitious dictator who will release your ambassadors and give access to the planet's mineral wealth. In exchange, he gets Republic support in the form of orbital battle platforms, and later maybe even weapon shipments.Patrick Degan wrote:And just why would the natives welcome a foreign invader in the first place? Another blithe assumption you leap to in order to make your scenario work which lacks logical supports.
The worst thing that can happen is a civil war which your dictator loose. It still has a higher chance of success than trying to occupy the planet with two Acclamators, and much higher than doing nothing.
The best thing here is that the Republic isn't actually risking it's own troops, but the natives. I grant you that there is always a chance of this regime change idea failing, but an invasion with such pitiful forces is guaranteed to fail and cost a lot of precious clonetroopers.Patrick Degan wrote:Careful, those same assumptions are what led the United States into its current misadventure in Iraq and the Soviets into their misadventure in Afganistan. We can see how those actually worked out, however.
If you want to carry out your orders as task group commander, this is the only way you have at least a modest chance of achieving your objectives.
I suppose they may be dispersed around civilian bases and field landing sites, but they still can't actually muster a defence with those. To counter this, the Republic may destroy civilian airports as well as military ones, and splash any fighters that try to take off from field sites. I will grant you that if their fighters are dispersed, it won't have quite the same effect as annihilating their force in one strike.Patrick Degan wrote:You also assume that the starfighters will remain nicely bunched together in a few convenient locations to be blasted in a shock-and-awe strike.
Nothing, except security institutions already in place. The whole plan is a gamble, and I never said it was guaranteed to work - it depends on choosing the right man, for example.Patrick Degan wrote:What prevents a rebellion against a puppet dictator imposed by a foreign power?
The military is not a problem, because any unit that tries to take action against the new dictator will be blasted from orbit or by a force of LAATs.Patrick Degan wrote:What ensures that the military will automatically shift allegiance to the new regime?
Well, they already sent two Acclamators and ordered their commander to get the ambassadors back and secure access to the planet's mineral wealth. The ROE also doesn't ban the commander from using force.Patrick Degan wrote:And how does the Republic justify before its senate and the people back home a war which was carried out against a world which presented no threat to it and for which no justification exists other than two ambassadors being held hostage?
Yes, if the new puppet dictator fails to actually secure his newfound kingdom, the Republic would have no other choice but to mount a full-scale invasion. But what other approach would your propose for the task group commander, who has to carry out his orders to the best of his ability?Patrick Degan wrote:I will remind you that 53 hostages were not enough to move the United States into declaring war on Iran back in 1979 and two hostages would be far less justification for anything on the scale of an actual war of conquest, which is what the effort would have to become.
Others turned out OK from the perspective of American goals and interests at the time, so it's possible to do, even if the probability of success is not very high.Patrick Degan wrote:I think there's a handful of Russian parents who might have a word with you on that one.Yes, all of this is true. However, in all cases the hostage takers were:Patrick Degan wrote:Granted that the truth of Beslan remains murky. The fact remains that the terrorists had rigged the building with explosives and were perfecty prepared to start killing hostages and may have done so when the battle broke out. More relevant examples would be Black September, the Palestinian group which did murder 11 Israeli members of their Olympic team in Munich, 1972; the Ma'alot hostage massacre carried out by the DFLP in 1973; the Khartoum Embassay incident of 1973 also carried out by Black September. Which is why, in addition to the danger from crossfire, most hostage incidents are resolved through negotiation rather than armed force.
1) Non-national entities, and
2) Backed into a corner by an armed assault, with absolutely nothing to lose
Hostages held by nation-states (even the loonier ones) are much more likely to be released when they loose their worth, because unlike a terrorist organization, a nation-state is a clear target for the other nation's military. Iranian hostages were released, American citizens in the embassy in Cambodia were allowed to evacuate, etc.
This is true, which is why a commando raid to get the ambassadors back would be a last resort.Patrick Degan wrote:It should also be kept in mind that hostages are likely to be killed if the hostage-takers perceive they've got no way out and nothing to lose.
They don't actually need to conquer tha planet! The Republic wants the planet's minerals (let's call the "space oil"), not it's territory or people. If they were unwilling to actually commit a larger force to do this, the only remotely plausible idea to secure space oil is to try and make the planet cooperative. If negotiations can do this, cool. If not, your only option is to replace the government/dictator with someone more partial to you, or use Imperial approach which will probably get you court-martialled on the spot. I suppose it all depends on exactly how valuable space oil is, and if your superiors are willing to risk a PR nightmare and generating a potential future enemy. I'd first send a report with my idea and see if they give me a go-ahead.Patrick Degan wrote:The problem is that the military force the Republic is bringing to the situation is insufficient to achieve the former and far too large and unwieldy to achieve the latter. They can get the hostages with a pair of Jedi and a small commando unit, maybe. They're not going to conquer the planet. Unless of course they're willing to adopt strategies which the Empire wouldn't blink an eye about implementing. Like orbital bombardment.
Well, his complete cooperation is impossible to secure, and he'll probaby be plotting behind the Republic's back all the time. Then again, if the Republic treats him fairly, he may lay low and govern his new fiefdom. This and a possible rebellion against him are the two biggest uncertainties in the entire scheme.Patrick Degan wrote:The problem is that the new regime is no more likely to become partners with a foreign force anymore than the old one.
Of course, you can always threaten to send your Jedi to get him if he misbehaves.
Orbital fire support can make the following civil war pretty short, however, or at least give a tremendous advantage to the conspirators. This is pretty big point the Republic can make. It again depends on the exact nature of the tensions.Patrick Degan wrote:And if they're already inclined to overthrow the government and have made their preparations to do so, they don't need outside help in the first place as they've already got the forces and weaponry to achive that aim.
Yes, exactly. There was no-one who could be put in the position of necessary authority (so that he'd be able to surrender the Army) and who would at the same time be of the "we should surrender" camp. Basically, you'd have to replace the whole general staff and all higher officers. So if the planet's political situation is similar, you may forget about my proposal, I agree.Patrick Degan wrote:No, the United States didn't do so because the only people who had the authority to actually tell the military to surrender were the Imperial government. The other people were of the "fight to the death" camp.
Patrick Degan wrote:And the Americans' experiments with regime change have not proven to be long-term successes. A few in fact have been quite disasterous failures.