Will The End Of Oil See The End Of My Town?

[aerius]

Better hope that house has a solar-electric panel system and wood heaters

If worse comes to worst we'll move to Quebec where they have tens of gigawatts of hydroelectric power.

[SirNitram]

Because barges have no fuel requirements!

You know, there are days which I wonder about you. Build the missile components along the Mississippi river, and then barge it DOWNSTREAM to the launch site near the Gulf of Mexico, which only requires a moderate level of horsepower on a tugboat for general control. It's only pushing barges UPSTREAM that you need truly absurd levels of horsepower.

'Only moderate levels of horsepower'. Right. No-numbers logic; taking lessons from Scooter?

Gods, you're stupid. Tens of thousands of tons, just for the Orion LV.

Several points:

1.) It is by default a 10,000 ton space station when we place it into orbit. Beat that, ISS.

And what use is it? What does it solve that cannot be solved with more economical models?

2.) Who says it even needs to be manned?

What is the use of an unmanned 10,000 ton station? What does it solve that cannot be economically solved by NTRs and NERs?

And when the crew needs down? Well, we'll just have to abandon it or build a bulky, chemical-rocket powered crew LV because people like you are too stupid to read what's been posted repeatedly.

Yes, because in Nitram World:

We use logic in Nitram World, unlike ShepWorld, which is based off alt-history wankfests. Demonstrate what Orion solves that cannot be done more efficiently with other solutions.

2.) Let's see what the major components of rocket fuel are:

Yes, let's talk about those ridiculously inefficient chemical rockets your Orion wank-a-thon is supposed to replace, only it can't, because life is not your precious alt-hist.

Shep, either show what Orion solves that cannot be done more efficiently in the parameters of this thread with other solutions, or shut the fuck up. You whine, you emote, you pic-spam, you show a remarkable lack of 'This is why we do it'. Because the reason you want Orion is because you masturbate at the Alt-Hist Altar.

[SirNitram]

We've pulled the most energy rich coal out already.

Then why do we have roughly 285 years of Coal left? Even if we double or triple the rate of useage, it'll last us 142.5 to 95 more years.

Wow, that's a special kind of dumb. Energy efficient coal packs more power into less tonnage. We've used up the best, now we're on the dregs. Each ton yields less and less power.

Diesel is still being consumed, so it's price will rise.

And Diesel is the only possible fuel for locomotives!

No, it's not. It's just what they're built for. You will now play merry-go-round with alternatives, getting further and further into your irrelevent, ill-informed threadjacking, because you're too stupid to read.

'Gradual transition' of a 'few decades'. Only if you play in ShepLand, where oil remains economically feasible until the last drop comes out.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Just Google for the Hirsch and GAO reports on the issue, they should be easy to find.

The problem with the PO theory is that you can only really confirm you're at PO when past the peak. So really, we're only now acknowledging the peak was likely around 2006 by the current lack of any real growth in oil output. It's been hovering around 85 mbpd for the last couple of years or so and more and more desperate projects are being planned e.g. the drilling for deep water oil in the GoM and the increasing focus on oil shale.

I think it was the GAO report, not sure, that I read that had most major predictions putting the peak around sometime now to 2010 or thereabouts. Only the likes of CERA, the USGS and some oil firms put the peak around 2020-2040 and beyond (some even going as far as to say we'll never run out).

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Just Google for the Hirsch and GAO reports on the issue, they should be easy to find.

The problem with the PO theory is that you can only really confirm you're at PO when past the peak. So really, we're only now acknowledging the peak was likely around 2006 by the current lack of any real growth in oil output. It's been hovering around 85 mbpd for the last couple of years or so and more and more desperate projects are being planned e.g. the drilling for deep water oil in the GoM and the increasing focus on oil shale.

I think it was the GAO report, not sure, that I read that had most major predictions putting the peak around sometime now to 2010 or thereabouts. Only the likes of CERA, the USGS and some oil firms put the peak around 2020-2040 and beyond (some even going as far as to say we'll never run out).

It's safe to say that if we're not at peak now we will be there by 2010, and at that point we will have had only one year in the USA under a democratic President and Congress who might, just might start some programmes to mitigate its effects. Maybe.

That means that even in the absolute best case scenario we're going to be 19 years late on the necessary lead time to avoid serious negative consequences from Peak Oil.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Indeed. The growing consensus that the peak was 2005/06 is disturbing. The likes of Colin Campbell and Samsam Bakhtiari see us being past it, with only a handful thinking it may be this year or any year to 2010. No matter who is right, the case for mitigation is long past with massive industrial crash programmes requiring the minimum of two decades.

Consolidation of supplies is being stepped up. The Japanese have just made anew contract with the KSA and Abu Dhabi to help store oil in their reserves, getting preferential treatment, as it were.

[Erik von Nein]

So ... what's everyone's personal plan of survival, then? Since this is all going to happen within our lifetimes sharing ideas on how to make sure you get through it is a good idea, I'd think.

How about the best ways of convincing other people that this is all happening?

[Enforcer Talen]

Check the other thread. We are mulling ideas there.

[Erik von Nein]

Right, I didn't notice the other thread until after I posted, though my other question is still pertinent; how do you break this news to other people so that the understand the importance?

[Enforcer Talen]

Ask them to look at gas prices.

Ive read indications that we are going to hit 4$ a gallon this summer. That would make some people notice.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

If only Clinton hadn't wasted his early political capital on gun control and the failed attempt to initiate Universal Healthcare. He might have been able to push through significant measures before things were to late by protraying it as a new struggle now that the Cold War was over, a concept Americans could have more easily grasped.

Oh well. To late to change it.

[Arthur_Tuxedo]

Ask them to look at gas prices.

Ive read indications that we are going to hit 4$ a gallon this summer. That would make some people notice.

In San Francisco, I've already seen $3.99 per gallon for premium.

[J]

Right, I didn't notice the other thread until after I posted, though my other question is still pertinent; how do you break this news to other people so that the understand the importance?

Hit them over the head, repeatedly, if necessary with the hardcover edition of Energy And Problems Of A Technical Society.