[Peak Oil] What group of people will thrive Post-Collapse

[Dennis Toy]

Another Peak Oil thread continuing the peak oil series....


What group of people living in any country do you believe will survive Peak Oil and thrive post collapse. As we have learned, 1st world countries will suffer the most while third world countries might not be affected pretty much due to their conditions. There are the many groups that will survive and not survive and thrive after PO. I have created a list of the people i have thought of...

They are

The Yuppies
The Suburbanites
The Middle-Class
The Rural well-to-do
The Rich
The Urban Poor
The Rural poor

Here's who i think will survive and not survive.

Not Survive

Yuppies These guys will have it tough for the sole reason they have no survival skills whatsoever. Maybe it's just the yuppie assholes living in my city but from what i have seen, these people have had everything handed to them. Whether it's the first car on the 16th birthday or the parents paying their way through college. These people have not had to work for anything in their lives and they feel lost when their cell phone gets lost or they end up in a low-class area of the city. They have no usable manual labor skills or any repair skills. They will probably commit suicide or will escape because times in the cities will get hard.

Suburbanites Same as above only that they have a perception that the city is a BAD place to live. They have to drive almost everywhere to get even the simplist things like necessities such as food or medicine. They are centered around cars.

who will survive

Middle-Class they have a tendancy to invest in things for the long-term such as college and IRA savings. If they see PO on the horizon, they will invest in such things such as smaller cars and smaller less energy intensive homes.

[bThe Rich[/b] Definetly, throughout history, there have been a rich upper class who have extensive wealth to keep the resources they collect. They will likely invest in things such as fortified homes and put their moneys in safe place to maintain their wealth

The rural well-to-do They will become the farmers that will become independant and will probably take up old skills such as hunting. They will become the isolationist survivalists who will fortify their homes against mauraders.

The rural poor same as above only with lover conditions.

The urban poor People such as minorties who live in inner-city areas will see this as another adversity that will need to get over because these people ( such as myself personally) have been through such things as crime, drug epidemics, riots, lack of education, the gang wars, the AIDS epidemic and the high infant mortality. I see themselves banding together and become a community and then getting connections to farming and trade to sustain their existance. Luxury will not be an object because luxury has always been far away. They will probably be the builders of a new smaller human population who live in cities.

[Dennis Toy]

feel free to add your own group.

[The Grim Squeaker]

What about Engineers, especially those with a focus on train systems or maintaining Nuclear power plants or anyone in the solar power or Water Desalinization industry?

[Dennis Toy]

yeah them too... We could build universities to train engineers, scientists and researchers to rebuild our infrastructures. We could also open trade schools to train manual laborers.

[Enforcer Talen]

Um, no. Right off the bat, we are going to be hurting, great depression style. However, we are going to be in dreamland compared to the Charnel House that awaits the 3rd world. We have money to adjust, although itll suck. They dont. We'll lose jobs, they'll lose lives.

I disagree with you on a few other points. I think urban poor are going to echo the 3rd world - they dont have the money to adjust. Itll be survival of the fittest, all over again.

I think the middle class will be hurting for the same reasons as the yuppies - they didnt anticipate the mess thats approaching.

[TithonusSyndrome]

So for a young man like me, what'd be an ideal career to embark upon? I'm most interested in nuclear power, but I don't really know what kind of education is nessicary to work at a reactor.

[Enforcer Talen]

Nuke Power and Trains have been very popular in threads like these. I might suggest something regarding canals as well.

[Dennis Toy]

I disagree with you on a few other points. I think urban poor are going to echo the 3rd world - they dont have the money to adjust. Itll be survival of the fittest, all over again.

Not really, there has always been an urban poor class in many cities before industrialization and they have taken the lowest jobs to survive. I pretty much think they will try to do the dirty things that people will not want to do and will save and adjust to living in PO. They will like they do save useful materials and recycle resources. [/b]

[Enforcer Talen]

I disagree with you on a few other points. I think urban poor are going to echo the 3rd world - they dont have the money to adjust. Itll be survival of the fittest, all over again.

Not really, there has always been an urban poor class in many cities before industrialization and they have taken the lowest jobs to survive. I pretty much think they will try to do the dirty things that people will not want to do and will save and adjust to living in PO. They will like they do save useful materials and recycle resources. [/b]

Certianly. However, feeding the cities will be difficult for much of the time after PO, and the poor are not likely to be the first in line. I can envision Mogadishu NYC edition quite easily.

[Napoleon the Clown]

Anyone that depends strongly on stores is going to take it up the ass. Food costs will sky-rocket from transportation issues. Inner-city poor will be fucked worse than anyone else. They barely have the money to survive as is. When the McDonald's Dollar Menu starts costing over ten bucks they'll be proper fucked.

Yuppies will get fucked too. Hell, everyone will see a decrease in their quality of life unless legitimate effort is put into alternative fuels.

[Enforcer Talen]

At the very *least* Im seeing stock market crashes. End of oil = end of transport, which impacts fucking everything. Democracy is going to be touch and go for a long while - hungry people dont accept the status quo. We're going to see a command economy, and more shifts to extremism. Obviously, I m thinking US, but look at the Great Depression, and you'll have an idea for the political atmosphere. Lot of demogogues, lot of people trying to find Alternate Solutions to civillizations, be it hard left or hard right.

At the very least Im seeing the 2nd New Deal and a fuckload of foodlines. It it gets pushed a little farther (remember, the weather is going to be unnice, as seen in the IPCC report), you might see democracy suspened for the duration.

"Save useful materials and recycle resources"? What do you think the poor try to do now? At PO, we'll be seeing riots.

[Prozac the Robert]

So for a young man like me, what'd be an ideal career to embark upon? I'm most interested in nuclear power, but I don't really know what kind of education is nessicary to work at a reactor.

I expect a degree in physics and masters in nuclear reactors or similar would work. The best thing to do is find out who owns the nuclear power plants in the place you want to work, and check out their websites. See if they have a graduate entry route. If not then you'll probably need to get experience of some sort. Academics might be one way if you could get to work on something relevant, or some sort of internship might be another possibility.

There is of course a possibility that people on this board are overestimating the timescale of the threat. In which case you might end up spending a decade or two in a stagnant industry, without much chance to move upwards. But I guess that's a risk with any kind of job. There is also a slight risk of a politician with a crazy 'green' agenda ruining everything. It's unlikely, and there's not really anything you can do about it.

The only other potential problem is fusion. It might be worth trying to get a degree which includes some stuff on fusion, and keeping up to date. That way you have a better chance of getting in if it takes off.

[Spin Echo]

So for a young man like me, what'd be an ideal career to embark upon? I'm most interested in nuclear power, but I don't really know what kind of education is nessicary to work at a reactor.

Going a bit OT, but it depends on what you do. To actually *run* the reactor doesn't require that much advanced training. Where I did my undergrad, about each year they train a half dozen or so frosh in the January semester (One month) and teach them how to run the university research reactor. It paid pretty decently, but apparently the work was boring as all hell. Most of the time, it was just going and writing down the values of various meters every hour.

If you actually want to design the systems and such, then a nuclear engineering degree is the way to go. I've been told in the nuclear industry, you should probably have up to a masters, but a doctorate is really overkill unless you want to do research.

It's a good time to become a nuclear engineer. They trained a lot of them in the 70's when nuclear plants were being built, but the lack of new plants means very few new nuclear engineers were trained afterwards, and most went into the navy. Now all the nuclear engineers trained in the 70's are retiring, and there's a huge demand (read high salaries) for new ones.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The rich are going to need to be prepared beforehand, and a great many very likely aren't. If you don't have a nice self-sufficient, totally isolated home away from home, then somewhere down the line you're going to have to interact with the rest of the world again.

[TithonusSyndrome]

I first became drawn to the idea of working in a reactor when I heard that it was only a matter of time before a reactor was opened here in Alberta to power oilsands extraction; up until this point all the reactors have been in the east and the most westernly of them would be somewhere in southern Ontario. I know there's a few SLOWPOKEs in and around universities including the local U of A, but they don't appear to offer committed programs in nuclear physics. I guess I'm going to have to look at studying at the other end of the country in order to pursue an education in nuclear power.

[White Haven]

Repair work. Any kind of repair work. With products and supplies becoming scarcer, and money becoming tighter, anyone who wants to keep doing (x) is going to be far more willing to pay to have it fixed, whatever it is. Meanwhile, I'll be marching on Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to attempt a takeover of the D&H warehouse there. Huzzah having control over one of the largest repositories of computer parts and suchlike on the East Coast.

[Enforcer Talen]

The rich are going to need to be prepared beforehand, and a great many very likely aren't. If you don't have a nice self-sufficient, totally isolated home away from home, then somewhere down the line you're going to have to interact with the rest of the world again.

And even then, mobs of people might go for the only points of light in miles radii.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

Repair work. Any kind of repair work. With products and supplies becoming scarcer, and money becoming tighter, anyone who wants to keep doing (x) is going to be far more willing to pay to have it fixed, whatever it is. Meanwhile, I'll be marching on Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to attempt a takeover of the D&H warehouse there. Huzzah having control over one of the largest repositories of computer parts and suchlike on the East Coast.

Gunsmithing, maybe? People who know how to take a piece of scrap steel and sharpen it into a working knife (like myself as a fucking kid!) will make out like bandits, too. It's really amazing how few people know how to properly sharpen a knife, much less maintain weapons any more complicated than that.

People who can make arrows and fix bows will also find their skills quite valuable. Bows and arrows will likely find a resurgence in use if firearms ammunition runs out or its production is threatened (yes that includes just powder or bullets; reloaders will feel the pinch when their favorite powders or jacketed bullets become unavailable).

I'd also imagine nurses, doctors, shamans, and other such healers would quickly evolve toward a unitary 'Medicine Man' type, using an amalgam of modern medicine and herbal remedies that they find actually work.

Result being that people who can make and fix weapons or people who can heal the wonded or sick may become high-ranking members of the tribe.

[Enforcer Talen]

It really depends on how hard the fall is. If it goes tribal-some-modern-tech-mostly-myth, then yes, absolutely. Blacksmiths and hard science technical guys (engineers, doctors) will be valuable in any situation like this, but it really depends on how much of the pre-PO civilization we can hold on to.

[MKSheppard]

This is really simple. Go to any gunboard; do a search for "TEOTAWKI", and you'll have more discussion than you'll ever want or need.

However; anything beyond roughly 1-2 months of supplies for fuel, food, and water, stored is pretty much useless; because:

1.) You will be on your own for a couple of weeks at worst in the majority of disasters that actually have a chance of occuring (tornado strike, hurricane)

2.) Preparing for The End Of The World As We Know It, requires so much preparation and stockpiling, that it's self defeating.

The Ark TWO in Canada



They took 42 busses, connected them, and then poured concrete over them.

Probably the most intensive survival network in North America.



But expensive to set up.

[DevNull]

Why are people in the suburbs so bad off? All the basic shops and amenities are usually nearby, they only have to drive far for luxuries which would be scarce anyway. They will also have enough land to grow a good portion of their own food which innercity people can't do.

[aerius]

I can tell you who will be the best off, and that will be GWB and his family. His Crawford Texas ranch exists completely off the grid and is 100% self-sufficient, and I'll bet there's enough arms & ammo there to take over a small country.

[Enforcer Talen]

Why are people in the suburbs so bad off? All the basic shops and amenities are usually nearby, they only have to drive far for luxuries which would be scarce anyway. They will also have enough land to grow a good portion of their own food which innercity people can't do.

Who brings the items into the shops without trucks?

Basically, youd need to rewrite transportaiton to make them self sustaining - they arent in that stage now.

[DevNull]

Why are people in the suburbs so bad off? All the basic shops and amenities are usually nearby, they only have to drive far for luxuries which would be scarce anyway. They will also have enough land to grow a good portion of their own food which innercity people can't do.

Who brings the items into the shops without trucks?

Basically, youd need to rewrite transportaiton to make them self sustaining - they arent in that stage now.

How does food get to the cities then? If you say by train, most go through the suburbs so it woudn't be unfeasable for them to stop and stock up the shops there on the way.

[Enforcer Talen]

It prolly wont, at first, hence my points about riots.