Peak oil economic impact

[The Duchess of Zeon]

You didn't drink Kool Aid as a little girl, did you, Marina? :P

I actually understood the meaning behind all of the later Dune novels, and I see myself as a bit of a Fremen, exceptionally arrogant, and prepared to suffer immensely simply to live, nevermind to succeed. I have awesome, finely-honed survival instincts, certainly, whereas a lot of people in the modern world have basically seen their's atrophy.

As I once explained to a friend, I want to die at the age of 135 - 140 or so with half my organs being cloned replacements, half my limbs cybernetic replacements for the blow off bits, a half a dozen gunshot wounds, some tissue grafts from recovering from serious burns, some internal scarring in my lungs from a couple diseases survived, metallic-looking artificial eyes projecting out of my face, scars everywhere, and a dozen surgeries to keep my beauty or so, having successfully circumanavigated the globe, crossed the Antarctic, scaled a few mountains, led a mercenary army, managed a few railroads and renewable powerplants, gotten involved in radical politics, and attempted to take over a country, and then settle down in my old age to write my memoirs and a few books of philosophy and oversee the building of an ornate tomb for my mummified corpse when I finally kick over.

I want to use myself up. I'll lead armies at 90 like Narses, given the chance. Retirement is anathema for me. I want to be active until the moment I die, and I want to throw myself into every challenge that I can. Every moment... Should be worthy of a book to itself. What is the bloody point of living if you don't strive for the likes of that? I've always been a pretty virulent feminist, and I will confess that I want to do pretty much everything I can to show that the playing field can be levelled with enough effort, even if--and maybe so much the better--that brings about suffering on my part, because suffering builds strength of personality.

There's a reason In the Storm of Steel is one of my favourite books; I'm openly envious of Ernst Juenger's life.

I've a pretty good shot at it, too; I'm a good writer, a good orator, there's no family conditions, and my relatives regularly live into their mid-90's just with modern medicine, and I'm very fit and have excellent pain tolerances and ability to go without nourishment or sleep for extended periods of time.

I'm an incurably addicted adrenaline junky, more or less, and peak oil sounds like the sort of monumental challenge which will shake up the current boring order of self-indulgent pettiness in the suburban classes of the western world. All this considered, I bet you can understand how I came around to these viewpoints on peak oil--I am tired of living in a society dominated by people who define their lives in terms of security guards on every corner, a walmart in every city, and a reality show on every channel.

[brianeyci]

Is this turning into personal economic impact? Well might as well add my two cents, even if nobody cares.

I am not optimistic. In particular, I envision a complete breakdown of my entire life. I have massive student loans which cannot be discharged easily in any circumstance, and have an old mother and no relatives or powerful rich friends to shelter me. I have no other relatives to speak of in this country and friends will be busy taking care of themselves. For people not gifted with good genetics, the breakdown of the pharmecutical industry may mean death. Luckily I am not that bad off, but as one friend put it, 99% of the world could beat me up.

When the police don't have enough gas to drive their cars or firefighters cannot drive their firetrucks or ambulances leave people to die like in the fall of the Soviet Union, only it never ends, it will be a dark world indeed. I see no particular reason why making my own bread or living life without tap water and shitting in a bucket is a good thing. In a proper society, people are specialized, and a computer programmer or a mathematician or a tax man doesn't have to know how to make a log cabin to contribute to society. Quite the contrary, I see the incoming storm as benefiting the few miscreants who live outside society, off the grid, who refuse to partake in society because they view it as something wrong. In other words, rewarding paranoia, rewarding the mountain man, and rewarding George Bush and Dick Cheney. If you have good genetics, good for you, but I have accepted I will probably die young at 60.

Intellectuals will be swept aside, by brutes who wish to dominate with pure force. An example will be politics. Tyrannical governments will be elected on platforms of blaming minorities and heathens halfway across the world for ills. There will be world wars, and much suffering. Personally, I see no way to come out of it better than if peak oil had not happened, unless I figure out how to cash in on the problem. And unfortunately, I am just beginning my life, and have no assets or liquid to speak of, and would not risk such in stocks or highly speculative endeavours. As mentioned in other threads (or perhaps this one) it will be the rich who profit the most, a once in a lifetime opportunity. Perhaps right before the crash, I may max out my credit cards and take out huge loans to purchase something, but that seems like winning the lottery.

That doesn't mean I'm going to just sit down and die. I am a follower, not a leader, but I will make the best of it. At least I don't have a family, short of my mother and brother. My current goal is to graduate in one year and quickly enter the Federal service before the shit hits the fan, so if the crisis could be delayed by two or three years, that would be wonderful.

The up side is as long as I can feed myself, I can be happy. I'm easily satisfied. I don't need to do anything particularly wonderful with my life, as long as I know I'm contributing in some small positive way to the cogs of society.

[Flameblade]

I actually understood the meaning behind all of the later Dune novels, and I see myself as a bit of a Fremen, exceptionally arrogant, and prepared to suffer immensely simply to live, nevermind to succeed. I have awesome, finely-honed survival instincts, certainly, whereas a lot of people in the modern world have basically seen their's atrophy.

As I once explained to a friend, I want to die at the age of 135 - 140 or so with half my organs being cloned replacements, half my limbs cybernetic replacements for the blow off bits, a half a dozen gunshot wounds, some tissue grafts from recovering from serious burns, some internal scarring in my lungs from a couple diseases survived, metallic-looking artificial eyes projecting out of my face, scars everywhere, and a dozen surgeries to keep my beauty or so, having successfully circumanavigated the globe, crossed the Antarctic, scaled a few mountains, led a mercenary army, managed a few railroads and renewable powerplants, gotten involved in radical politics, and attempted to take over a country, and then settle down in my old age to write my memoirs and a few books of philosophy and oversee the building of an ornate tomb for my mummified corpse when I finally kick over.

I want to use myself up. I'll lead armies at 90 like Narses, given the chance. Retirement is anathema for me. I want to be active until the moment I die, and I want to throw myself into every challenge that I can. Every moment... Should be worthy of a book to itself. What is the bloody point of living if you don't strive for the likes of that? I've always been a pretty virulent feminist, and I will confess that I want to do pretty much everything I can to show that the playing field can be levelled with enough effort, even if--and maybe so much the better--that brings about suffering on my part, because suffering builds strength of personality.

There's a reason In the Storm of Steel is one of my favourite books; I'm openly envious of Ernst Juenger's life.

I've a pretty good shot at it, too; I'm a good writer, a good orator, there's no family conditions, and my relatives regularly live into their mid-90's just with modern medicine, and I'm very fit and have excellent pain tolerances and ability to go without nourishment or sleep for extended periods of time.

I'm an incurably addicted adrenaline junky, more or less, and peak oil sounds like the sort of monumental challenge which will shake up the current boring order of self-indulgent pettiness in the suburban classes of the western world. All this considered, I bet you can understand how I came around to these viewpoints on peak oil--I am tired of living in a society dominated by people who define their lives in terms of security guards on every corner, a walmart in every city, and a reality show on every channel.

Okay this, along with the knowledge of history and the being a die-hard monarchist...

It's official: You are on my top 10 list of my favorite people I've never met.

On the original subject matter, I find this idea to simultaneously be very frightening and very appealing. I wouldn't mind seeing modern society "trim the fat" as it were.

[Balrog]

On the original subject matter, I find this idea to simultaneously be very frightening and very appealing. I wouldn't mind seeing modern society "trim the fat" as it were.

Until, that is, you find out you're one of the fatty cells that's about to go...

[Flameblade]

Until, that is, you find out you're one of the fatty cells that's about to go...

If so, so be it. If my dying is part of a package deal that will knock a bit of sense into humanity (even for a little while) then I'll pay the price. Personally I would rather stay around to help us avoid past mistakes but if not...

Meh.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

People, some words of wisdom from a very smart man:

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

Measure yourself up against that list.

These people talking about partying to death or committing suicide are the kind of spoiled, self-indulgent cowards who have brought this upon us.

Would it REALLY be better to die than to scythe a field by hand or shovel shit? I've DONE the later, and you get used to the smell soon enough and your mind wanders to daydreams just like it does on any other manual labour job without much concentration required.

Have you ever sung a labour song? They have a peculiar rhythm which helps the time pass quickly. Have you ever, even, at least, sung a sea shanty? If I failed at everything else, I'd sign on as a mate (I know my trig, so it's a reasonable ambition) on a coastwise freighter when sails have come back into vogue, and I'd be a bloody happy lady.

Have you really become so dependent on McDonalds and Walmart that you can't live in a world like this? Hell, there will still be an internet, even if you have to access it from a public library. Probably you will at least have some electricity in your home. In a first world country the chance of dying is virtually nil...

Things aren't going to be so bad, seriously. We Will Adapt.

[Flameblade]

People, some words of wisdom from a very smart man:

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

Measure yourself up against that list.

These people talking about partying to death or committing suicide are the kind of spoiled, self-indulgent cowards who have brought this upon us.

Would it REALLY be better to die than to scythe a field by hand or shovel shit? I've DONE the later, and you get used to the smell soon enough and your mind wanders to daydreams just like it does on any other manual labour job without much concentration required.

Have you ever sung a labour song? They have a peculiar rhythm which helps the time pass quickly. Have you ever, even, at least, sung a sea shanty? If I failed at everything else, I'd sign on as a mate (I know my trig, so it's a reasonable ambition) on a coastwise freighter when sails have come back into vogue, and I'd be a bloody happy lady.

Have you really become so dependent on McDonalds and Walmart that you can't live in a world like this? Hell, there will still be an internet, even if you have to access it from a public library. Probably you will at least have some electricity in your home. In a first world country the chance of dying is virtually nil...

Things aren't going to be so bad, seriously. We Will Adapt.

Oh dear. Completely different meaning than that. I was trying to say that, if me dying is part of what would be needed to get humanity out the shit-hole its in right now, then I can die (relatively) happy. I was most emphatically not saying that I couldn't live without the "modern" world and its mountains of consumer bullshit.

I would much rather be one of the people rebuilding human society from the ashes of this one than one of the soul ground up in the gears of the machine that ran out of gas.

And Robert Heinlein was a very smart man (though he did tend to pontificate in his books a lot). Out of his good list I can do all except program a computer and conn a ship. Though my sonnets aren't that good and I have problems changing the diaper without jabbing my finger, but I think I'm pretty well off on that list.

[Knife]

As I once explained to a friend, I want to die at the age of 135 - 140 or so with half my organs being cloned replacements, half my limbs cybernetic replacements for the blow off bits, a half a dozen gunshot wounds, some tissue grafts from recovering from serious burns, some internal scarring in my lungs from a couple diseases survived, metallic-looking artificial eyes projecting out of my face, scars everywhere, and a dozen surgeries to keep my beauty or so, having successfully circumanavigated the globe, crossed the Antarctic, scaled a few mountains, led a mercenary army, managed a few railroads and renewable powerplants, gotten involved in radical politics, and attempted to take over a country, and then settle down in my old age to write my memoirs and a few books of philosophy and oversee the building of an ornate tomb for my mummified corpse when I finally kick over.

Well, I'm glad I at some point tried to capture the character right.

[brianeyci]

Measure yourself up against that list.

No.

Glory is for neanderthals. I don't particularly see the problem of dying in a hospital bed never having been in mortal combat or led an army or shoveled shit. I dislike the idea of no toilet paper, and do not think that such challenges build personality or moral fiber. On the contrary, I think living without social safety nets causes undue suffering for the weak, helpless, innocent, elderly and others who are not endowed with wealth or genetics. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger is for movies, not real life.

I'm going to get very, very good at doing what I do, probably typing up reports or filling out records of employment in some Federal office, and that will be that. Any physical job is quite out of the question for me, as I am not kidding when I say 99% of the male population and probably female could kick my ass. It is a waste for me to focus on anything other than what I've been trained for over a decade of my life, and that is sit at a desk. And I will be a damn good desk jockey, the best if I have to. If I must shovel shit, I will, but don't think I'll enjoy it. It'll be my right to hate it.

[Darth Wong]

People, some words of wisdom from a very smart man:

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

Measure yourself up against that list.

This person either lived a long time ago or he was a complete imbecile. Modern technology is far too complex to allow someone to be a "renaissance man" and refuse to specialize at all.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

People, some words of wisdom from a very smart man:

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

Measure yourself up against that list.

This person either lived a long time ago or he was a complete imbecile. Modern technology is far too complex to allow someone to be a "renaissance man" and refuse to specialize at all.

Not at a level of simple things, Mike. Does any one of those things require truly advanced knowledge? It's certainly only possible for you to focus on one specialization, but within limits, shouldn't it be possible for anyone with a basic education in mathematics to safely plan out a simple single-story wood structure like a house, or do basic accounting, to solve simple equations, or to use trig and astro-navigation techniques to navigate a ship? Arguably, a high-schooler should be able to do everything on the list, save "plan an invasion", though people the age of high schoolers have done that repeatedly in history. Setting a bone is something you should learn in the scouts, and doing BASIC programming is something most kids should be able to do these days after a few years of computer use.

The point isn't about renaissance men, the way I see it, the point is that there is a basic level at which the fundamental adaptability of humans is pretty universal. ANYONE can be a farmer or a manual labourer or a construction worker, etc. If you seriously think that you're unable to do those things when faced with no choice except to adapt and learn, then there's something wrong with you.

No, it would be truly asinine to assert that someone should be able to design a submarine AND find a cure for cancer, or other things like that. But there are a huge number of basic skills out there that anyone should be able to grasp with a small amount of preparation, and yet it is precisely the prospect of having to engage in those activities which seems to make some people literally suicidal!

That's what's working me up, really.

[Flameblade]

Wait, who seemed suicidal over the idea of manual labor? I hope you weren't referring to me with that. I thought I'd explained the whole "not minding if I have to go in order to get the fat, lazy fucks off their asses" bit?

[brianeyci]

I think she's referring to the overall attitudes of people in general.

Basically, there are and have been people who have said, fuck it, if society goes down the drain I'll go down with it. There's no point learning new shit or adapting my life to it.

I can understand where she's coming from, because people living in ignorance or denial is dangerous.

But there is a difference between anger and denial. I am going to dislike shoveling shit if I have to do it, and especially a physical struggle for survival. Especially a physical struggle. And I don't see how that makes me any less of a complete person. I'll do it, but doesn't mean I have to like it.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I think she's referring to the overall attitudes of people in general.

Basically, there are and have been people who have said, fuck it, if society goes down the drain I'll go down with it. There's no point learning new shit or adapting my life to it.

I can understand where she's coming from, because people living in ignorance or denial is dangerous.

But there is a difference between anger and denial. I am going to dislike shoveling shit if I have to do it, and especially a physical struggle for survival. Especially a physical struggle. And I don't see how that makes me any less of a complete person. I'll do it, but doesn't mean I have to like it.

Yes, basically, it's happened on this board repeatedly since the subject has come up, especially with the "We're all fucked" thread.

The point I'm trying to make is that we're NOT all fucked.

[brianeyci]

But then again, you're not seeing that to some people, death is preferable to the end of their kind of existence. To some people, a glorious death on the battlefield or death trying as hard as you can as you put it is not worth the effort if all they get in the end is last place.

It seems assinine, but it's not really. If they don't want to fight, then leave them alone. A female friend I have thinks a lot like you and says she's an alpha. If others die off, good for her she gets more meat. If all the losers in the world die off, good for you, you get more meat Duchess. Or am I missing something?

If people choose to die off rather than live a diminished existence in their view, I don't see why that's a problem, as long as you've tried helping them out. I wouldn't even look down on them. It's their right to quit. No doubt many will.

No, the worst kind of people will be the arrogant non-quitters, the one who want to preserve their existence no matter the cost, who demand war for oil. The ones who don't want to adapt, but don't want to give up anything either.

[Flameblade]

Yes, basically, it's happened on this board repeatedly since the subject has come up, especially with the "We're all fucked" thread.

The point I'm trying to make is that we're NOT all fucked.

Well, some people are fucked, but that's alway been true. Most of the people who deserve to die (those who can't survive without their fucking luxuries) will die and most of the people who deserve to live will live. Note the most though, because in this scale of calamity, some people will die who normally wouldn't in this sort of environment.

As it is, I'm looking forward to the End Of The World As We Know Ittm. It sounds like interesting times ahead. In the Chinese curse sense of the term, but oh well, it's better than the dull times. Whenever the hell those were. The paleolithic? Nah, the hunter-gathering thing was interesting too. Meh.

[Flameblade]

But then again, you're not seeing that to some people, death is preferable to the end of their kind of existence. To some people, a glorious death on the battlefield or death trying as hard as you can as you put it is not worth the effort if all they get in the end is last place.

Being nominally Asatruar, I'm gonna pass this bit, since I'll probably be shouted down.

It seems assinine, but it's not really. If they don't want to fight, then leave them alone. A female friend I have thinks a lot like you and says she's an alpha. If others die off, good for her she gets more meat. If all the losers in the world die off, good for you, you get more meat Duchess. Or am I missing something?

Could you pass the steak sauce when you're done with it?

If people choose to die off rather than live a diminished existence in their view, I don't see why that's a problem, as long as you've tried helping them out. I wouldn't even look down on them. It's their right to quit. No doubt many will.

If they've quit on living because they can't handle the idea of changing, of giving up their wasteful lifestyles, then I know I won't shed any tears. The "not looking down on them" will be kinda hard when they're six feet under. Then again, without their sort we wouldn't be in this mess now, would we?

No, the worst kind of people will be the arrogant non-quitters, the one who want to preserve their existence no matter the cost, who demand war for oil. The ones who don't want to adapt, but don't want to give up anything either.

No, its that sort that has fucked everything up. The sheeple just rolled over and let them. I think most of us can agree about that sort being the worst.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

It seems assinine, but it's not really. If they don't want to fight, then leave them alone. A female friend I have thinks a lot like you and says she's an alpha. If others die off, good for her she gets more meat. If all the losers in the world die off, good for you, you get more meat Duchess. Or am I missing something?

Yeah, you are missing something. I genuinely care about people, and I want to save as many lives as I can, within the limits of what is good for society. I will force the worthless fuckers to stay alive if it isn't necessary for them to die. Because I feel I have an obligation to life, even if that obligation at times requires me to propose taking it.

[Darth Wong]

If people choose to die off rather than live a diminished existence in their view, I don't see why that's a problem, as long as you've tried helping them out. I wouldn't even look down on them. It's their right to quit. No doubt many will.

Are you on drugs? Nobody chooses to die off rather than live a diminished existence. Everyone will either adapt or do something desperate (or possibly evil) in order to survive. The idea of someone saying "ho hum, if I can't live my lavish lifestyle I'll just sit here and wait for the end" is totally ridiculous, yet you are stating it as a fact.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The above in mind, there likely will be a small number of people who can't take the culture shock and go into a foetal position and die in the corner. Look at how Paris Hilton reacted to spending 45 days in prison, then apply that kind of wake-up call to the millions of bratty kids and self-obsessed adults today. Most will eat humble pie after trying their damnedest to avoid making the cut. Others, well, let's just say it lessens the burden on those willing to make a go of things.

[Alerik the Fortunate]

I have to admit I'm somewhat with the Duchess of Zeon on this one. I'm looking forward to the shakeup a bit, hoping that the more farsighted among us may take steps to see that we emerge on the other side of the crisis that much closer to being a mature species. And I hope to live to see the opening years of the 22nd century. There's a good chance I won't, and there will be a lot of suffering for even the able among us, and many will die unnecessarily, but it is too late to avert that.

The thing that concerns me most, though, is that some of the big organizations that contributed most to our calamity, such as some large business, the oil mongers in particular, some churches, etc. will have the resources to maintain at least the kernel of their upper command echelons intact and able to shape the coming world. Much of the populace might still be led to blame atheists, scientists, gays, racial minorities, hippies, or other scapegoats of choice, leaving the hypocritical corpulent sociopathic fearmongers with as much influence as before. So here's a toast to the hope that selective pressures against laziness will apply to intellectual matters, and the populace will drift towards being genuinely awake and sane.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Yeah, seriously, at this point I'm just going to plan for the future, because we can't stop it--we can just try to deal with what will be happening.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Like Judgement Day. Only longer. And with less killer robots.

[Nieztchean Uber-Amoeba]

My new sig pretty well illustrates my survival plan at its bare bones.

There's was once a childhood fantasy in my head of leaving the country, living off the grid in some shitole, get trapped in a civil war and become a hero for the liberal, democratic victors. Get a statue in the second-largest city. Live gritty.

Who knows?

[PeZook]

Yeah, seriously, at this point I'm just going to plan for the future, because we can't stop it--we can just try to deal with what will be happening.

Stockpiling genetically modified grain might be a good idea, though. And building nuke plants - we can't build enough to actually replace oil, but every single one built and operational reduces the shock.